Current public sentiment towards the housing market?

[Guest107]

prop site

NO!

The TIMES spent €50m on a property site and are not being bearish

The Indo are being responsible here, someone has to prick the bubble .

 

[Bedsit]

ECB

The ECB president gives a media briefing once the council meeting has concluded. You can watch him live at the following site:

http://www.ecb.int/home/html/index.en.html


The schedule is usually as follows (all times are local):

12:30 pm - Rate decision posted on the site
1:30 pm - Press conference

 

[dontaskme]

I don't want it compared with anything, that was my initial point (not having a go at you, it just that comparisons are not really possible).
Re your points on infrastructure and smallness etc, why stay (if indeed you reside in ireland)?

I disagree, I think it is only logical to compare Dublin with other cities or Ireland with other countries.

No two cities or locations are exactly the same but it still makes sense to compare value for money etc.

I´d say that comparisons like "I know some guy who bought an apartment for 200k in Berlin when he would not have got anything in Dublin for the same price" are probably not that useful, but if you can´t compare prices generally speaking in one city to another then how can you tell when one city is overpriced or oversold?

 

[phoenix_n]

Two hard-hitting headlines in the Independent today:

"Mortgage holders to struggle as interest rates rise again" and

"Home rate hikes to hit hard today"

But the headline Petrol prices to rise will have a greater impact.

(can somone create a link to the first headline "mortgage holders....." .Cant find the article on unison.ie ....cheers)

 

[walk2dewater]

We'll see analysis in the weekend papers about how much less individuals/couples can borrow on a given income at 3% ECB. We'll also see more advertising for fixed mortgage rates.

The message will be buy before your ability to borrow is further eroded, and buy to lock in a "low" fixed rate.

 

[whathome]

(can somone create a link to the first headline "mortgage holders....." .Cant find the article on unison.ie ....cheers)

http://www.unison.ie/irish_independent/stories.php3?ca=9&si=1663926&issue_id=14442 (http://www.unison.ie/irish_independent/stories.php3?ca=9&si=1663926&issue_id=14442)

 

[whizzbang]

But the headline Petrol prices to rise will have a greater impact.

Excellent, more visitors to my web site! Visits go up when prices rise, then people get used to prices and visits drop. Its amazing to watch how quickly people get used to higher prices.

 

[phoenix_n]

Excellent, more visitors to my web site! Visits go up when prices rise, then people get used to prices and visits drop. Its amazing to watch how quickly people get used to higher prices.

Shameless plug.

Thanks whathome for the link.

 

[room305]

We'll see analysis in the weekend papers about how much less individuals/couples can borrow on a given income at 3% ECB. We'll also see more advertising for fixed mortgage rates.

The message will be buy before your ability to borrow is further eroded, and buy to lock in a "low" fixed rate.

The Sunday Business Post already did an analysis, with the conclusion that a couple would qualify for about €100k less when the rates had increased by one percent.

I would be very interested in seeing how much business the banks are doing in selling fixed rate loans rather than variable over the past month or so. Certainly their personal lending seems to be heavily focused on fixed rate personal loans - to judge by their advertising.

 

[phoenix_n]

http://www.unison.ie/irish_independent/stories.php3?ca=9&si=1663926&issue_id=14442 (http://www.unison.ie/irish_independent/stories.php3?ca=9&si=1663926&issue_id=14442)

"However, estate agents Hooke & MacDonald has seen very strong interest from prospective buyers registering for new property launches in September. Mr Conway said buyers will turn to parental assistance and co-signing to get over the initial shock of rate rises. "

I completely disagree with this. If they are of the impression that parents are going to encourage their children to go into debt i think he is under a great mis-conception

 

[redo]

The Sunday Business Post already did an analysis, with the conclusion that a couple would qualify for about €100k less when the rates had increased by one percent.

I would be very interested in seeing how much business the banks are doing in selling fixed rate loans rather than variable over the past month or so. Certainly their personal lending seems to be heavily focused on fixed rate personal loans - to judge by their advertising.

We may see the introduction of some new interest rate products. An interest rate ceiling, for example. The rate can't go above a certain rate but if the rate comes down, you get the benefit. All this at a premium though.

Another thing we will witness this autmn, is more "zoned" land coming up for sale by developers who don't want to build on it in this current climate. Most canny developers will just keep it for another time, but some extra supply will come onto the market, I suspect.

 

[whathome]

"Mr Conway said buyers will turn to parental assistance "

Conway's sweet shop:
"You haven't enough - Go ask Mummy or Daddy for some more change"

 

[room305]

I completely disagree with this. If they are of the impression that parents are going to encourage their children to go into debt i think he is under a great mis-conception

Actually I think he could be bang on the money. Remember that RTE show "I'm an adult get me out of here!". I think just about every person featured got financial aid from their parents to get on the ladder.

From the parent's perspective they might regard stumping up €40k as cheap business to get rid of little Johnny ...

 

[room305]

We may see the introduction of some new interest rate products. An interest rate ceiling, for example. The rate can't go above a certain rate but if the rate comes down, you get the benefit. All this at a premium though.

Already here. IIB have a capped tracker mortgage. The capped component runs out after a year or two though and it becomes a simple tracker.

 

[Afuera]

I think it's around this time that we'll see 40 and 50 year mortgages being launched on the market as an attempt to address the afforability wall being reached.

While the message coming from banks and real estate agents is to "buy now", "it's going to be a soft landing" evidence from the US seems to suggest that we could be encountering a global slump. If people start to hear reports of a hard crash in the property market in the US can they continue to sing the mantra "it can't happen here, we're different."?

 

[Persius]

I disagree, I think it is only logical to compare Dublin with other cities or Ireland with other countries.

No two cities or locations are exactly the same but it still makes sense to compare value for money etc.

I´d say that comparisons like "I know some guy who bought an apartment for 200k in Berlin when he would not have got anything in Dublin for the same price" are probably not that useful, but if you can´t compare prices generally speaking in one city to another then how can you tell when one city is overpriced or oversold?

I agree, so long as the comparissons also include average take home pay, average rents per square meter, size of city/country, state of economy, interest rate (if not in Eurozone), demographics etc.

So to give an example: Property in Munich costs on average about €3000 per square meter. So a 70 square meter 2 bed appartment would cost around €210,000 (add 4 to 8% transaction costs). This is for property within the city limits and there is not huge variation to the same extent as Dublin. Munich has a similar population to Dublin and the economy is strong and mixed with many multinationals. It's the third biggest city in Germany and one of the wealthiest. The banks are not as generous as the irish banks - traditionally requiring 20% deposit, though this has been dropping to between 5 and 10% in the last few years.

I think wages in Munich are similar to Dublin, though the tax burden is higher. Offsetting that is the fact that the general cost of living is lower. Rents are about €11 per square meter. So the same property would cost about €770 to rent. Germany in general has a low birthrate and Munich has a very high percentage of youngish singles. People having families tend to move out of the city. Older people move back in.

Now based on these sort of comparissons I think you can make some sort of judgement on the relative value in Dublin property. However I think cities like Vienna, Rotterdam, Helsinki, Copenhagen would make for better comparissons with Dublin (or the same countries for Ireland).

 

[Raskolnikov]

http://www.unison.ie/irish_independent/stories.php3?ca=9&si=1663926&issue_id=14442 (http://www.unison.ie/irish_independent/stories.php3?ca=9&si=1663926&issue_id=14442)

More sensationalist tosh from the Indo, a 1/4% interest hike will put the squeeze on mortgage holders, but certainly won't "cripple" them like the Indo is suggesting. It took interest rates to rise to over 4% in the UK before the skids were put on the market there. 3% in the scheme of things, is still reasonable.

I completely disagree with this. If they are of the impression that parents are going to encourage their children to go into debt i think he is under a great mis-conception

As of last year, the ESRI that 20% of FTB are already receiving parental assistance in purchasing their homes. I would expect that as the threshold of affordability is being reached, the "Bank of Mam and Dad" (TM "I'm an adult get me out of here!". ); will pull out all the stops to get their little darlings on the property ladder.

I mean, if they don't get one now, they're never going to own a home!

 

[frazzled]

While the message coming from banks and real estate agents is to "buy now", "it's going to be a soft landing" evidence from the US seems to suggest that we could be encountering a global slump. If people start to hear reports of a hard crash in the property market in the US can they continue to sing the mantra "it can't happen here, we're different."?

How's this for starters:

US housing 'saviour' on slide
http://www.unison.ie/irish_independent/stories.php3?ca=184&si=1664041&issue_id=14442

 

[Glenbhoy]

I disagree, I think it is only logical to compare Dublin with other cities or Ireland with other countries.

No two cities or locations are exactly the same but it still makes sense to compare value for money etc.

It's just that any comparison is very difficult. There are all the basics such as: income, disposable income, local economy, banks willingness to lend, local infrastructure, govt incentives, legal implications of renting, type of housing stock, population density etc. Then there are the intangibles, such as mindset, the utility value individuals derive from ownership, lifestyle choices, this list is pretty long.
You've also got to consider that Dublin whilst population may not be huge in world terms, relative to the population in this state is massive, ie approx 50% of the population are Dubs to some degree and so on.......

 

[whathome]

3% in the scheme of things, is still reasonable.

you're correct - it's still very low.

Interestingly, house prices dropped in 2001 despite interest rates coming down three times (total rate drop 1.25%) that year.