Current public sentiment towards the housing market?

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Bedsit said:
Daft.ie says soft landing in sight

The reassurances are coming in thick and fast now. I remember someone saying earlier on this forum that we would be hearing things like this from the media in the near future. Here is the link:

(http://www.rte.ie/business/2006/0802/houses.html)
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Interesting to see that the annual growth rate has slowed so markedly, does daft.ie now have the most amount of houses advertised in Ireland (thus making it the best source of data?)
 
Firefly
For anyone who remembers queuing up with 15 to 20 people outside a pokey house to be "interviewed" by smug tenants (many of whom are still renting I might add) I can assure you that home ownership rocks. No landlords & no sh1tty furniture. You're working hard and deserve a nice gaff.
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I do agree with you but i now rent in the city centre and can bike/walk it to work. My current rent affords me to save regularly and not only will it not rise by any interest changes but i can move to another part of the city if i choose with 4 weeks notice. Have even considered Dalkey with rents falling.
Buying a house (which i did) did make sense and the freedom was great. But it no longer is a wise choice and to buy now will create a burden of which only rises with each interest rate. You cant just then decide to head off to oz for a year if you cant sell your place.

whathome said:
Daft says house price growth has slowed :
http://www.rte.ie/business/2006/0802/houses.html

"general slowdown across the entire property market"

- you could tell it was weakening from a noticeable drop off in buyer interest, more property on the market etc.
The autumn selling season will be very interesting.
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The game is up.
 
bogwarrior said:
question for the people who say they'll cut and run if we hit a downturn - where do you intend going to?
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I've been giving this some serious consideration. The UK would be my preference but it too is vulnerable to a housing collapse. Other options would include France and Germany or the Scandanavian countries. I'll keep my options open and see how things play out globally. Luckily in the line of work I am in I could conceivably stay here and work contracts for companies based abroad.

bogwarrior said:
As the cliche says 'If America catches cold, the rest of the world sneezes...'
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I think that phrase is the other way round but the point is well taken. There may well be a global economic downturn.
 
"According to Marc Coleman, economics editor of The Irish Times, the property market is overvalued by as much as 15 per cent but we are unlikely to see a downturn ..."

[broken link removed]

I guess he is finally towing the Irish Times boards line ;). Especially since they bought into that dud website for 50 million last week. It is a pity to see the few voices of reason in the media are being stifled by their own organizations in the face of profit.
 
beattie said:
does daft.ie now have the most amount of houses advertised in Ireland (thus making it the best source of data?)
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No, myhome.ie advertises the largest amount of properties to purchase online in Ireland.
 
thewatcher said:
What happens if the only gaff you can afford is in some kip in dublin or else 30 - 40 miles outside of dublin,do you really want to be stuck there for the next 10 -15 years.
My advice is to hold your ground and bide your time,build up as much cash as you can while renting.
The crash will come may be 6 months on the inside,may be 36 months on the outside but it's coming.
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Thats pretty much my advice with a smidge extra. Try to have 10% of the price handy when you do dip in.

Theres no point bustin yo' balls to buy onto that 'ladder' at the back of Ballivor , especially if you are a Dub :p Lifes too short.
 
Correct me if I'm wrong as I only heard a snippet of that Daft report
this morning, but aren't they just looking at asking prices and not selling prices?
Also did it not report that GROWTH rates had fallen and not actual prices?
Finally, the largest rental website in the country has a vested interest in reporting that rents are up 7% (going against everything the doomsayers on this thread are arguing..ie that rents are falling!!).
If prices are falling according to them, then why are rents rising???
Firefly.
 
bogwarrior said:
question for the people who say they'll cut and run if we hit a downturn - where do you intend going to?
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Years ago i always had that in mind. Didnt want to end up in the UK if economy went belly up. Went to oz and got a passport. Its an option that i have.
 
Firefly said:
Correct me if I'm wrong as I only heard a snippet of that Daft report
this morning, but aren't they just looking at asking prices and not selling prices?
Also did it not report that GROWTH rates had fallen and not actual prices?
Finally, the largest rental website in the country has a vested interest in reporting that rents are up 7% (going against everything the doomsayers on this thread are arguing..ie that rents are falling!!).
If prices are falling according to them, then why are rents rising???
Firefly.
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We've had the whole daft debate already. I think everyone is pretty much agreed that daft.ie stats are not a market analysis. However, this is a public forum and we are in a thread about public sentiment in the current Irish property market. Nobody is purporting to have an MBA from the London School of Economics, therefore any sentiment expressed by a poster about daft stats is certainly valid in the context of a public message board - If daft stats make them feel more bullish/bearish, then that's how the poster thinks and nobody can stop this. Personally I think any statistics from daft.ie are a pretty good rule of thumb and nothing more because of: seasonal factors, vested interests, rogue houses for sale, site popularity, etc.

Having said all this, I wouldn't just simply ignore any noticable statistical changes from the daft.ie site.
 
House Prices Hang over a Sloping Hillside
Thankfully the cliff analogy is a bit extreme. Irish house prices are not hanging over the edge of a canyon. A sloping hillside is a more accurate, and comforting, analogy. Somewhat overvalued, the gap between where we are and where we should be isn't yet critical, a fall of several, rather than hundreds, of feet. But if house price inflation doesn't moderate soon, the gap could soon become too large to avoid a very painful correction.
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Marc Colman Economics Editor of the Irish Times.


http://www.daft.ie/report/index.daft


It seems that Mr. Colman has an interest in topography; so are we are on the edge of a gently sloping hillside? What’s at the bottom of the hill? Is it a U shaped valley, with another gentle slope leading upwards? Or is the slope leading to a plain that extends as far as the horizon?

But hang about we’ve just climbed up a nearly precipitous mountain over the past decade, redolent of the north face of the Eiger I thought mountains were approximately conical in shape steep on all sides. It could be that we have reached a ‘permanently high plateau.


Permanently High Plateau, that’s it, (sounds familiar though?)

EDIT

Permantley High Plateau. I remember now, Irving Fisher a famed financial journalist and economist made that topographical remark back in 29’.


The stock market crash of 1929 and the subsequent Great Depression cost Fisher much of his personal wealth and academic reputation. He famously predicted, a few days before the Stock Market Crash of 1929, "Stock prices have reached what looks like a permanently high plateau." For months after the Crash, he continued to assure investors that a recovery was just around the corner
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http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Irving_Fisher
 
How about this for a conspiracy theory....the Irish Times, in an elaborate attempt to move focus from proprty prices, is trying single-handedly to re-ignite the dot.com bubble by forking out 50m for a website!

Firefly
 
room305 said:
I've been giving this some serious consideration. The UK would be my preference but it too is vulnerable to a housing collapse. Other options would include France and Germany or the Scandanavian countries. I'll keep my options open and see how things play out globally. Luckily in the line of work I am in I could conceivably stay here and work contracts for companies based abroad.
I think that phrase is the other way round but the point is well taken. There may well be a global economic downturn.
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Yeah, been looking at Germany myself. Seems to me that when the US and UK are doing badly, Germany and Japan do well - and vice versa. Either way the Germans have been in recession for a long while. It's not going to get any worse over there so you know what you're getting. Things can only go one way over here, and I would be a lot more confident of the Germans and Sandanavians pulling themselves out of the sh*t than our crowd here who have never proven they can run a country responsibly.
 
Duplex said:


so are we are on the edge of a gently sloping hillside? What’s at the bottom of the hill?
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House prices are usually sticky on the way down making it look more like a sloping hill that continues down for a long time. The question is, how far do prices have to fall before we experience the "soft landing"? !!!
 
Firefly said:
How about this for a conspiracy theory....the Irish Times, in an elaborate attempt to move focus from proprty prices, is trying single-handedly to re-ignite the dot.com bubble by forking out 50m for a website!
Click to expand...

Honestly? It's not one of the better ones.
 
oz interest rates went up again yesterday, and property prices have stalled (and started going backwards) in parts of sydney and melbourne over the last couple of years - where prices had risen to all time highs.
Australia, of course, isn't solely relying on property to drive their economy (which appears to be the case here). Its currently riding a resources boom (selling iron-ore to china etc) and should be able to cope with a significant decrease in property prices.

The worrying thing is, that despite having two very fiscally aware leaders (John Howard and Treasurer Peter Costello) and having their own independent central bank (reserve bank of australia) they still allowed a property bubble to develop over the last 10 years or so. So what hope do we have here with Bumbling Bertie leading the dance and the ECB calling the tune.....


phoenix_n said:
Years ago i always had that in mind. Didnt want to end up in the UK if economy went belly up. Went to oz and got a passport. Its an option that i have.
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whathome said:
House prices are usually sticky on the way down making it look more like a sloping hill that continues down for a long time. The question is, how far do prices have to fall before we experience the "soft landing"? !!!
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Coleman suggests that we will have a fall of 'several feet'. Which would seem to suggest a 'soft landing'.

So I suppose you could view Mr Colemans announcement as being highly significant, he being the Economics Editor of Irelands self styled ‘Quality Daily’. The problem I have is that his views are long on topography and short on economics. What happens to the speculator market when prices stop rising? Will builders keep knocking out new homes?. No mention of the global situation. If I were cynical I’d almost believe that he was pitching bulls*it at the credulous.
 
The Irish Times decision to buy the web-site was not a bad decision as some may think. Remember in a soft-landing/crash people will want to sell and the website only makes money from houses for sale. So if before you had 10 houses on offer in a particular area,now say you will have 20. But. More importantly whilst a house may before been on the market for 4 weeks now it may be (like it was before) on the market for 4 months. Assuming that an EA pays per week for an advertised house if say 10 euros.thats 10*20*16weeks rather than 10*10*4weeks. 3200 projected revenue against past 400. Simple example but logical to me.
They may have made a very smart decision.
 
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