Current public sentiment towards the housing market?

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Open_Window said:
I respect the long view, and understnad that markets rise over the long term. However investing now is causing the detrimental impoverishment of the current generations ( I would include myself in that one) and thus could upset your 20 year plan.

What if the Government decided in sudden hast to limit due to national crisis (the enviroment is the only issue at the end of the day) 1 prime residence per person and or family. Its not a crazy notion, in many ways its sensible if you want a balanced non boom & bust economy that is economically & enviroemtally stable, doens't mean we can't trade for other goods.

Anyways I think we are seeing the crux of the problem here, home owning & investing in proeperty can essentially never mix thus you will have boom & bust cycles.

THere is only one remedy.
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I'm glad to see that you respect the long-term investment view.

However on your other point, if the government decreed that you were only allowed one house per family then there would be no property available for rent. What would you say to those migrant workers, students and anyone else who just do not want to buy a house - "sorry no room at the inn". Would you want the Government to confiscate property investments for the national good and hand them out? What sort of a "basket case" would you think Ireland would be perceived to be then?

As I mentioned before I am not a "short-term property speculator" - I have one small (inexpensive) property as part of a balanced portfolio with a long-term view and I will not sell in the event of a market slowdown. I don't really mind if the price goes up or down because in the very worst case scenario my kids can live there. I don't plan to buy any more property as then I wouldn't have a balanced portfolio. It's just a simple and balanced view to investment as advocated through most of the non-emotional threads throughout this site......

The small-time investors who have always been in the market seem to be confused with those who are "buying to flip" which is a relatively new phenomenon in Ireland and in the current climate they are just throwing fuel on the fire. If the government want to start looking at some regulation in the market then maybe that would be a good starting point....
 
maxlovecok said:
I can't see a soft landing. Some of the more inexperienced agents think it will go on forever. The more knowledgeable ones talk in whispers that it's going to get rough. But we wouldn't say that to a client.
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The UK has been quoted several times recently on this thread as having achieved a 'soft landing' some years back, the remark sometimes coupled with a question as to whether Irish punters should switch to purchasing UK properties.

Over the past 5 years the experiences of friends and neighbours who sold their PPR's to move elsewhere - not for speculation but for practical family reasons (to be in the catchment area for the school of their choice, to be closer to work, parents etc.,) have been that the Estate Agents were 'brilliant if you're a buyer, crap if you're trying to sell' (i.e. the reduced EA manpower is focussed on buyers).

What do people here imagine when they quote 'soft landing' of the property market? The house next-door to me (3-bed Victorian centre-of-town redbrick 5 minutes walk from train and bus-stations) took 18 months to shift after the buyer dropped by 30K (sterling). Another down the road is still up for sale 3 years in. The family moved so their two daughters could go to the high-performing school of their choice. The house was viewed half-a-dozen times during the first year whereupon they 'gave up' trying to sell and rented it out. It was trashed by the tenants in the course of a year, returned to the market a year ago (at the same price!!!) and has had 'a few' viewings but no expressions of interest. It continues to stand empty like many other 'to rent' houses in the town centre.

Meanwhile back at the ranch the Irish Times asserts today that "Prices for homes in Dublin and the commuter counties continued on a strong upward trajectory last month, although rising interest rates dampened overall growth in house prices".

The search for scapegoats continues - it's the fault of rising interest rates, it's the fault of 'older people' screwing younger, it's the fault of the banks, it's the gubberment's fault..........:D
 
A friend of mine involved in construction remembers seeing a concrete wagon on the road and following it in the hope of getting work. When he got to the site, three other guys had had the same idea and a stand off or sorts ensued. 1991 apparently.
 
maxlovecok said:
I can't see a soft landing. Some of the more inexperienced agents think it will go on forever. The more knowledgeable ones talk in whispers that it's going to get rough. But we wouldn't say that to a client.
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So you're telling the whole nation on a web forum??
 
Firefly - Do you really believe an individual's anecdotal comment would precipitate a stampede for the exit given that public sentiment on property has (the 2001 warning notwithstanding!) proved immune to wheel-barrowloads of facts and figures freely available in the public domain?
 
The Indo says not to panic.
http://www.unison.ie/irish_independent/stories.php3?ca=9&si=1712017&issue_id=14803

[FONT=Verdana, Arial] Buyers waiting for great bargains may be disappointed, especially in the greater Dublin area, but can take consolation from the fact that a property collapse would hurt almost everyone[/FONT]
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Uhem...that's supposed to console those priced out of the market, is it? I think some elements of the property owning masses must be getting a little rattled.

and while I'm at it:

[FONT=Verdana, Arial] Panic is probably the biggest danger. The last few years have seen 10s of thousands of people invest in residential property for the first time. They own almost a quarter of a million second homes, many of which are vacant. A rush to sell if prices flag could be disastrous for the market.
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The rush to buy them was disastrous for the market and that's why we're in this position now.
[/FONT]
 
Hi phoenix_n,

Posts consisting a single or a small number of (unattributed) statistics do not add anything to the debate.

If you were to collate a long time series of figures and display the statistics on an graph (as a poster has done already), now that would be usefull!
 
Calina said:
The Indo says not to panic.
http://www.unison.ie/irish_independent/stories.php3?ca=9&si=1712017&issue_id=14803


Uhem...that's supposed to console those priced out of the market, is it? I think some elements of the property owning masses must be getting a little rattled.
and while I'm at it:
The rush to buy them was disastrous for the market and that's why we're in this position now.
[/size][/font]
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This article managed to use the word "panic" FIVE times. Might be a subliminal message in there :D

I heard of a development in the Rosslare area that people initially queued up to place deposits on. At this point around 40 have pulled out and 2 have proceeded.

I wonder how much of this is going on - unreported - around the country.
 
ajapale said:
Hi phoenix_n,

Posts consisting a single or a small number of (unattributed) statistics do not add anything to the debate.

If you were to collate a long time series of figures and display the statistics on an graph (as a poster has done already), now that would be usefull!
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...and talking about taxi drivers does ?
 
Remix said:
This article managed to use the word "panic" FIVE times. Might be a subliminal message in there :D
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That occurred to me too - the more you tell people not to panic, the more they'll wonder what there is to panic about!

I'm still undecided about the whole soft-landing or crash phenomenon, but expect to accumulate a little anecdotal evidence of my own over the coming weeks, having just put my house on the market [having sale agreed new house in August - always knew the timing could be a risk...]. I'm expecting my own house to make somewhere around the amount I would have expected in April or May since it's (just) in walking distance of city centre. But unlike many trader-uppers, I've always done my sums on the basis of realising considerably less so I'm not particularly exposed. I think!

I've also observed a fair few price drops, some of them hefty, over the last six months [the house I'm buying features on the property prices falling blog - I saw it at the top price, told the EA that was ridiculous, and walked away until it approached reason]. My impression at the moment is that in Dublin it's the further out suburbs and the higher prestige properties that are most exposed to drops, and ambitious sellers are in for a shock.

More generally, buyers who are heavily mortgage dependent *must* by now be looking at interest rates and realising that just because the bank will give you €X doesn't mean that it's really affordable or sustainable. Surely?
 
maxlovecok said:
When the boom ended in Australia I had a tough job convincing vendors that they wouldn't achieve the price their neighbours got 6 months ago.
I can see the exact same thing happening here.
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Its greast to hear the other side. Iwonder would NEwstlak send Henry down ot a local EA office eh!?

SO is it mostly investors trying to offload becasue there info (6 months out of date) is the market has peaked or wha?
 
phoenix_n said:
...and talking about taxi drivers does ?
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Yes, by the time I read the taxi driver side show above the debate was back on track. It could also be agrued that taxi drivers influence and reflect public sentiment. They might even be today's equivalent of the shoe shine boy of the late 1920's.

Please try to avoid posting little fragments of unattribted figures with out commentary or analysis.
 
Did you see the Herald AM today - The greens attacking the Taoiseach on the fact that house prices are 11 times average industrial wage and FTBs tax take make up one 1/3 of stamp duty. Taoiseach's retort was that "revenue from the tax is invested in health services, schools and welfare.". Securing the mother vote, me thinks. Dang if I ain't done called dat.


treora said:
The only really motivated political grouping in Ireland that is not financially-vested is the Irish mammy. Tell her that Gilroy's balanced argument wants all the money that should go to her children [Education/Health/Social Welfare/Childcare allowance] will end up in the pockets of developers/specuvestors via VAT rebates, stamp duty reductions and their FTB debt laden younger siblings. And the airways will be alive with the sound of ...
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Marie said:
Firefly - Do you really believe an individual's anecdotal comment would precipitate a stampede for the exit given that public sentiment on property has (the 2001 warning notwithstanding!) proved immune to wheel-barrowloads of facts and figures freely available in the public domain?
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Not at all...just that the anonymity of this web forum can easily attract pretenders....
 
Firefly said:
Not at all...just that the anonymity of this web forum can easily attract pretenders....
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It can also attract honest comments from people who wouldn't be free to make them in a professional capacity....

Just impossible to tell the difference at times.
 
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