Current public sentiment towards the housing market?

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Dipole said:
No. Property is a product like any other and generally consumers want it to be as inexpensive as possible.
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But consumers aren't always price sensitive. Being able to pay more than your neighbours for a product puts you in an exclusive club and that adds-value in it's self (for certain types of people). There are lot's of people who would like to pay top dollar for a house that says "I'm special"!
But even so, most of the rest of us don't like to give cheap gifts (for example).
 
SteelBlue05 said:
Well its not quite like any other product. Its not like buying a Mars bar in the shop.

Its a high value product, its very expensive, its also part of a cultural norm where people want to own a house, and its a status symbol.

So its not always true that the cost of it is the only important aspect.
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Sorry, but most people look at the utility value of the product first i.e. will it keep the rain of their head and not fall down about them.

And I expected this response so I'll direct you to the motor market in the U.S for an example of what I mean.
You can get all sorts of cars from Hyundais to Mercedes. The Hyundai is generally seen as a basic transportation device where as the Mercedes has a "status" value to it and people aspire to own it but the market in the US is cut throat. You can buy a better speced Mercedes in the US for near half the price it costs here and you know invoice price to extract discount from the dealer so yes in the US people aspire to own better cars but they always try to pay bottom dollar.
Check out autos.msn.com to see the prices and see exactly what I mean. The price of cars are shockingly cheap over there -that's a free market in operation. Ford may loose 5bn dollars this year but they'll bounce back and the consumers aren't lining up saying really we should pay more just to stop Ford loosing money.
 
SteelBlue, I think you've hit on an important point. I'm not starting one of those ridiculous "this time it's different" arguments because those with the opposite view overuse it too.
We do live in a rather unique "homeowner culture", different to anything you see on the continent, or in the US or Australia. Renting for your lifetime just isn't the done thing here...and it does make our market different.
 
Andy Doof said:
I guess it all depends on your agenda...speaking as a homeowner and as an investor I would prefer to see a soft landing. The bears who are dumping their properties want to see a crash. The soon to be first time buyers want to see a crash, or do they? Perhaps the thought of their massive inheritance not being so massive is a greater influence...
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Yeah becuase when you have 5 brothers/sisters and your parents live in the average house your gonna be loaded when they pop their clogs! god, i bet you pray for your inheritence to come ASAP.
 
Andy Doof said:
Perhaps the thought of their massive inheritance not being so massive is a greater influence...
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Perhaps they're happy to have valuable time with their parent/s while still alive? I think this would be a greater influence on most people than worrying about how falling property prices will affect their "massive" inheritance as you put it.
 
Anecdotely, the builders I've spoken to who are getting out right now with the aim of getting back in on the cheap are rain dancing for a crash!
 
Andy Doof said:
I guess it all depends on your agenda...speaking as a homeowner and as an investor I would prefer to see a soft landing. The bears who are dumping their properties want to see a crash. The soon to be first time buyers want to see a crash, or do they? Perhaps the thought of their massive inheritance not being so massive is a greater influence...
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You're missing the wider point. As things stand, the property market is skewing the rest of the economy and and that is a bad thing. Not just for FTBs who are priced out of the property market, but on people whose jobs will almost be certainly affected regardless of whether property continues to rise or bear no relation to salary reality, or crash. If it continues to rise in the way it does, we will need wholesale salary inflation which will bring with it major job losses and a crash. If it crashes, there will be a massive hit in consumer sentiment. If it drags out for along time, we will have a stagnant economy.

For the mid to long term interest of the econony we need rational property prices. We do not have them. This goes far above anybody scraping together enough pieces of paper proving they can afford a starter home with a mortgage repayment of 2500 E a month. This impacts everyone. A short sharp shock would enable us to restart dealing with the economic impact a lot sooner than a decade long of stagnation.
 
I wasn't being cynical...this isn't a how much love do you have in your heart competition
 
Again the peculiarly Irish phenomenon...what "right" do people have to own their own home? If you can't afford to buy, rent!
 
Andy Doof said:
Yeah, but surely a gradual correction is preferable to a crash or collapse?
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Due to the speculative nature of the Irish property market,even a gradual correction will most likely lead to a massive fall off in demand. You won't get FTBs in bidding wars, afraid that their never going to be able to afford a house. You won't get investors willing to subsidise tenants...
This will have to influence supply and by extension employment, tax receipts etc. Why would it be better to have this process long and drawn out? We don't want to have our own "lost decade" like they've experienced in Japan.
 
Debtwish said:
Unless Andy Doof you have been feeling really sorry for the first time buyers that were forced by parents/media/peer pressure to take on huge debts for a starter home, and now have to find hundreds a month more to service those debts?

Surely if todays university generation can be spared this misery then that is a good thing, no?
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Completely disagree with you when you say FTBs were 'forced' into indebtedness.

I have recently purchased a taxi which I drive two nights a week - was chatting to a fellow driver there the other night and was saying to him how I felt sorry taking €45 off knackered commuters after a thursday night boozing session after work. He just laughed out loud and said: "nobody forced them to live in bleedin' Clonee" - I completely agree with his sentiment and I have lost all feelings of guilt I once had just from this brief encounter. It's a dog-eat-dog economy we live in.

You've got to play your hand, look out for yourself and keep your hard-earned tight in your pocket. If you feel somehow "hard done by" by this country, in that the house fairy never left the keys to a 4 bed semi-d in blackrock under your pillow, then chances are you feel it's not your fault - but that of the gubberment. Maybe such persons should vote socialist in the next election where the gubberment will provide all the housing.

And I'm not a home-owner - I rent in D6 which offers me great flexibility, cheap rent and a great location. Ireland's gone to pot in many ways, but you can't deny that there are plenty of oppportunities for the "university generation" that just weren't there 20 years ago. I'm a young man with ideas, I have money in my back pocket and there are loads of opportunities in Ireland - if you sit on your This post will be deleted if not edited to remove bad language in some job and are giving out about your 40k a year salary, that's your fault. Think creatively and make life work for you - there's only a finite amount of time in which to make something of life, and I for one am getting sick of listening to people complaining about how nobody has done anything for them - after all, why should they?
 
Andy Doof said:
We do live in a rather unique "homeowner culture", different to anything you see on the continent, or in the US or Australia. Renting for your lifetime just isn't the done thing here...and it does make our market different.
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That varies regionally. France is not well known for home ownership, for example, but it is the done thing in Brittany for example.

Renting is not the done thing here because tenant rights are somewhat tenuous by comparison to most other European countries. It is this which makes short term property investment so attractive here. I've twice had to move house because an investor decided to cash in and property sale is one of the reasons for which security of tenure can be circumvented in this country.
 
Andy Doof said:
SteelBlue, I think you've hit on an important point. I'm not starting one of those ridiculous "this time it's different" arguments because those with the opposite view overuse it too.
We do live in a rather unique "homeowner culture", different to anything you see on the continent, or in the US or Australia. Renting for your lifetime just isn't the done thing here...and it does make our market different.
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I don't see how this effects the demand for housing. (housing being defined as a means of shelter rather than an instrument of speculation)
 
Lower house prices = more disposable income = less wage inflation pressures = more competitive economy = less chance of economy in recession over next decade
 
Dipole said:
Sorry, but most people look at the utility value of the product first i.e. will it keep the rain of their head and not fall down about them.
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I understand your point, but the Irish property market isnt like the US car market, and thats why we have such massive prices. You need to account for a culture in Ireland where everyone wants to own a house, in the same way years ago when everyone wanted a car and now you have a car per person in most households.
 
CelloPoint said:
Ireland's gone to pot in many ways, but you can't deny that there are plenty of oppportunities for the "university generation" that just weren't there 20 years ago.
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I disagree, graduates in mid twenties on good salaries have little chance of buying in dublin like they could have just 5 years ago while someone with little education who speculated on a few properties because daddy and mammy told him ya cant go wrong with property, has several properties earning him large income without working. The bubble is distorting economy and those who work hard in a chosen area are'nt being rewared in the way they should. I have only recently graduated from university but someone with same ability and same degree graduating 5 years earlier than me has a much better standard of life as he got his house for half the price i would have to pay.
 
Andy Doof said:
I worry about...it's people who've just got onto the ladder, who've spoofed the banks.
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Why? If they're stupid enough to spoof the bank then that's their problem. I'm financially responsible most of my peers are, but some are up to their eyeballs in debt to afford whatever fancy things they want. Why are we supposed to feel sympathy for these kind of people.
 
bearishbull said:
Lower house prices = more disposable income = less wage inflation pressures = more competitive economy = less chance of economy in recession over next decade
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Lower house prices only equals more disposable income for FTB's buying houses it means less disposable income for greedy speculators who are trying to sell houses.
I still agree it would be good for the economy as FTB would generally put a few extra quid to better use than stinking rich middle aged investors.
 
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