Current public sentiment towards the housing market?

Status
Not open for further replies.
Rate of price growth falls to 0.7% for September – fourth consecutive decline in growth rate.

House prices in Dublin and Outside Dublin both grew by 1.7% and 0.6% respectively in September.

[FONT=arial, helvetica, sans-serif]House prices in the commuter counties of Dublin grew by 1.1% in September 2006, compared to 1.2% in August 2006.

Hardly a 10% crash expected in sep, phoenix?
Guess prices needs to drop 13% in each of the next 3 months for a 40 % predicted drop.
[/FONT]
 
walk2dewater said:
Even at €223k (plus SD) the yield would only be 5%. AIB and BOS now offer ~5% in a risk-free acct (net of DIRT).

The last guests to this party, who can leave, have left. For those remaining, economic reality is going to be swift and brutal.
Click to expand...

At 223k + SD given current rents in that area and assuming 10 months occupancy yield would be >7% which is pretty decent.

This is one of the cheapest apartments in that area on daft.. http://daft.ie/searchrental.daft?search=1&s[cc_id]=ct1&s[a_id]=265&s[mnp]=&s[mxp]=&s[bd_no]=&s[search_type]=rental&s[refreshmap]=1&limit=10&search_type=rental&id=424608
 

As was already mentioned these figures are based on data that is 3/4 months old! Realistically is there anyone over the last couple of months who would have paid more than the asking price in the current climate. It would be hard to believe if there was any growth at all in the last month or 2.
 

If the figures are based on mortgages drawn down, it would relate to deals done at the beginning of the summer, or even earlier - one of my neighbours went "sale agreed" in March and still hasn't moved. So his house is not in the figures yet.

Therefore this would relate to the period when interest rates were 0.5-0.75% lower. "September prices" will not be in the figures until January.
 
howstrange said:
Realistically is there anyone over the last couple of months who would have paid more than the asking price in the current climate.
Click to expand...
It depends on what the asking price was! (and what the market values the property at)

If the same property is put up at €400k and €200k then I'd assume that the listing for €200k has a great chance of getting offers above the asking price.
 
zac said:
[FONT=arial, helvetica, sans-serif]Guess prices needs to drop 13% in each of the next 3 months for a 40 % predicted drop.[/FONT]
Click to expand...

why do they have to drop over 3 months , surely they can drop at lower steps over a longer period and still reach the 40% drop in price
 
miju said:
why do they have to drop over 3 months , surely they can drop at lower steps over a longer period and still reach the 40% drop in price
Click to expand...

Exactly. I am keeping to my prediction and so far i don't think i will be wrong. Will you see all prices drop by 40%. Of course not. Its not like shares. But will some houses (localised hits at first) be worth 40% less. Yes. But a vendor will need to be stressed enough to take the hit.

But of course i could be wrong. Its not science. But my prediction of falling prices is coming true i dont feel the need to be exact by how much.

(also predicting a rise in city centre and inner suburbs rents)
 
MadPad said:
ah Arthur, Do you seriously think that nobody else has the same idea.... be careful, you could be the guy who buys high and sells low, worst of all possible worlds.
Click to expand...

If the data is out of date by 3-4 months in the esri index (which let's face it is most punter's barometer of house prices), then there must be some scope for people to exit a market with some considerable equity in the event of a tipping point being reached.

There are a lot of clever posts on here and some predictions made in July/August are being borne out. However I think we have to see a distinction between 'current public sentiment' as opposed to 'well informed financially literate sentiment'. I mean you're average punter isn't a lunatic but they largely see what's in front of them. You need a few months of declining ESRI indicies reported on primetime media allied to more ECB increases to get to a tipping point which will bring on meltdown.
 
The ESRI/PTSB data for new property can be up to a year old. How long does it take for buyers of new builds to draw down their mortgage following the booking deposit on off-plan developments?

This Irish Independent article from Feb 2006 highlights the data lag:
http://www.unison.ie/business/personalfinance/stories.php?ca=259&si=1555832

 
phoenix_n said:
...which would be a 40% drop from initial asking price of 560.
Click to expand...

may I be the first to correct you

... 60% drop

I've stated on here that 50%+ drops across the board cannot be ruled out. My reasoning was based on a return to >5% yields.
 
Re : Shandon Mills.

From what I can see they are different properties being offered by different agents. It is not a reduction in price of one property.

The more expensive one is being offered fully furnished.
 
walk2dewater said:
may I be the first to correct you

... 60% drop

I've stated on here that 50%+ drops across the board cannot be ruled out. My reasoning was based on a return to >5% yields.
Click to expand...

Although the upper end of the rental market in Monkstown for a 2 bed is 2300+ per month. Assuming 11 months occupancy at the top end of the market and ignoring stamp duty you would get a yield at 520k pretty close to 5%...
 
but sure wouldn't the upper end of monkstown cost more to buy therefore reducing yields?
 
miju said:
but sure wouldn't the upper end of monkstown cost more to buy therefore reducing yields?
Click to expand...

Possibly, the apartment mentioned at 520k does look nice, it might be possible to furnish it to that standard. I don't know whether it could actually command those prices, however.
 
Last edited by a moderator:
miju said:
but sure wouldn't the upper end of monkstown cost more to buy therefore reducing yields?
Click to expand...

2300 per month for 11 months = 25,300

yield = 25.3k/520k = about 5%

Is this the way its calculated?
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Menu
Log in
Register