Current public sentiment towards the housing market?

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A little piece of anecdotal to indicate that the falling asking prices we know so well, are dropping below previous sales price in some cases:

My house is now on the market since August. At the moment, it would appear to be worth €16K (and dropping) than the identical house
sold beside me last Easter. I have decided that I can take the hit of the €16K, but once it goes down under that, I dont think its worth my while.
Over the past two weeks, I have had two offers both just within the borderline asking price, both of whom then pulled out.
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http://www.askaboutmoney.com/showpost.php?p=294832&postcount=1

I suppose anecdotal is the best we have for revealing this.
 
SHARP said:
Weird country this
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I'm still hearing about people buying property sooner rather than later because they're worried that interest rates will keep going up. It's really weird, interest rates rising seems to be front-loading the Irish property market. I think that the only thing stopping people from buying at the low end of the market right now is their borrowing limit.
 
This apartment dropped from 370 to [broken link removed] this week.

Number of apartments grew from 10 on the 11th to 17 today in Glasnevin (Finglas Rd?)!!!
 
Just a query about a comment that I seem to hear constantly. "House prices might level off but the won't drop". Just what sort of basis is there in reality for this sort of statement?
 
qwerty1 said:
Just a query about a comment that I seem to hear constantly. "House prices might level off but the won't drop". Just what sort of basis is there in reality for this sort of statement?
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It's the same spin which has helped inflate the bubble over the last 6 years. Once almost everybody is spinning like this it's becomes a bit of a self fullfilling prophecy
 
[broken link removed]

I wonder what they will be saying for the last 6 months of this year!! I bet you wont hear any reports about stats for the last 6 months of 2006. You will just hear that house prices rose x% for the year as a whole!
 
qwerty1 said:
Just a query about a comment that I seem to hear constantly. "House prices might level off but the won't drop". Just what sort of basis is there in reality for this sort of statement?
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None.
 
SHARP said:
That was my thinking too, but then I hear the amount of people that have already spent their SSIA's in advance and that the impending money will be used to pay off the loan taken out in expectation of the SSIA money arriving.
Weird country this
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one of my friends (ever the pessimist) has a theory. He formulated it after hearing what the minister for Education said about SSIAs and 3rd level grants.

That the SSIA is way of gauging how much money people can spare i.e. how much can we raise taxes and if so and so was able to save so much money for 5 years then surely he/she has enough money - not to need state grants/aid/tax breaks or whatever.
His thinkin may be a bit too subversive but there may be a little something in it
 
Newstalk disapoint me a bit since Dunphy left. But then again the morning shows competition is sponsored by the 2 grand giveaway from Aib. Jill Kerby is hardly ever on it now, and this morning they had some guy on saying everything was going to be rosy with the economy for years to come.
 
howstrange said:
[broken link removed]

I wonder what they will be saying for the last 6 months of this year!! I bet you wont hear any reports about stats for the last 6 months of 2006. You will just hear that house prices rose x% for the year as a whole!
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I expect it to play out quite like the US. At one point the Real Estate Agents would delight in reporting the month-on-month figures, but once those turned negative they reverted to year-on-year. However now those have turned negative too..
 
Arthur Daley said:
Yes fair values are probably around the 2001 level in real terms but it seems that it will be a while before this corrects itself.
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have to say i think you are wrong on this. In 2001 this country was doing well, still competitive, exporting goods, still had industry doing well, wages and costs were low.

Now everything is overpriced, including us. Public service pay and costs have spiralled and will continue for the next few months in the face of an election.
We are in a worse situation than 2001, inflation is eroding the value of the prices in 2001, and we have lost ground in real terms from the point of view of our economy.
 
Arthur Daley said:
Newstalk disapoint me a bit since Dunphy left. But then again the morning shows competition is sponsored by the 2 grand giveaway from Aib. Jill Kerby is hardly ever on it now, and this morning they had some guy on saying everything was going to be rosy with the economy for years to come.
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And with Ger Gilroy at the seat it doesnt appear there is going to be any challenge to the vested interests either!!
 
dloob said:
Just noticed in the Galway Advertiser a 3 bed apartment near me in Galway that came on the market just over 3 weeks ago at 420K, is this week new to the market at 375K.
The 420 was pretty crazy as it's on the edge of the city but interesting to see it drop so quickly and by so much.
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Galway city-centre 3-bed beside me came on the market just 2 weeks ago at €440, now €400K. I might buy it once it hits €150K ;)
 
baby_tooth said:
have to say i think you are wrong on this. In 2001 this country was doing well, still competitive, exporting goods, still had industry doing well, wages and costs were low.

Now everything is overpriced, including us. Public service pay and costs have spiralled and will continue for the next few months in the face of an election.
We are in a worse situation than 2001, inflation is eroding the value of the prices in 2001, and we have lost ground in real terms from the point of view of our economy.
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I reckon house prices were a touch too high in 2001 but inflation/wage increases since then mean 2001 would be a about the right level. We have a distorted view now caused by 40 year terms, 100% mortgages and people scraping cash from here there and everywhere including credit union loans for deposits. Some bears on here would suggest the late 90s are fair value others think 2002/2003. Depends were you are on the scale I suppose. I agree this ecomony hasn't been competitive for years and benchmarking has a big part to play.
 
dloob said:
Just noticed in the Galway Advertiser a 3 bed apartment near me in Galway that came on the market just over 3 weeks ago at 420K, is this week new to the market at 375K.
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I noticed myself that the property "section" in the Galway Advertiser has recently turned into a pull-out "supplement" all of it's own. It's got noticeably bigger and bigger over the past weeks - so much so, that it is too big for it's own boots!

It must be twice the size it was a few months ago, and is in danger of becoming bigger than the paper itself!
 
Interesting comment from the CSO....

The CSO says that in the three months from May to July, the largest increase in the volume of sales was witnessed in the hardware, paints and glass sector, with sales there up 6.3%.
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http://www.rte.ie/business/2006/1013/retail.html?rss

Investors doing up their properties prior to selling? Potential trader-uppers deciding to stay put? A big push from developers to finish their current developments (glass sector more so than paints/hardware)?

Any other takes on this?
 
Maine said:
The auction results shown appear to confirm that there are still alot of sales happening. Are they a reasonable cross section or edited
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The IT yesterday still reported huge numbers of withdrawals, albeit with an increase in the "sold after for higher" figure.

The Indo has a lot of land sales and outside Dublin sales which look like they are still going relatively well. The Dublin sales are very slow by comparison.
 
Gwynston said:
I noticed myself that the property "section" in the Galway Advertiser has recently turned into a pull-out "supplement" all of it's own. It's got noticeably bigger and bigger over the past weeks - so much so, that it is too big for it's own boots!

It must be twice the size it was a few months ago, and is in danger of becoming bigger than the paper itself!
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It was the appearance of the (huge) Advertiser property supplement about a month ago that convinced me this bubble has hit bursting point. I seem to recall the same thing happening with the English newspapers just before the 89/90 crash...
 
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