Current public sentiment towards the housing market?

[Jason7]

Not that I don't think the economy here is headed for trouble (for which most people are ill prepared) but perhaps the decline in new car sales is due to people holding out on purchasing until next year's SSIA money give-away?

How much of this SSIA money has already been spent though ie buying the new car last year , on the basis we have all this money coming our way in 2007?

 

[Borderlord]

It looks like some Paddies who are taking on the world are not finding it is not a one-way street

"It's strange how a developer who landed in Chicago just a couple of months ago trailing clouds of public relations glory now has an acute case of shyness. Garrett Kelleher, the Irish developer who in July took financial control of the proposed 124-story building.."


Sorry Beattie
I wonder if that is the guy from Offaly who was on an RTE show a few months ago "Made in the USA" or something like that ??

 

[cjh]

Not that I don't think the economy here is headed for trouble (for which most people are ill prepared) but perhaps the decline in new car sales is due to people holding out on purchasing until next year's SSIA money give-away?

50% of SSIA's will have matured before the April(?) deadline.

 

[fatmanknows]

Regulator wants Credit Union debt action

[broken link removed]

Bet on a number of these bad debts to be deposit loans for the FTB. Would'nt fancy underwriting the loan book of any Irish Lender at the minute.

 

[Afuera]

Wow there buddy! 3.9% is almost twice the recommended rate? So if a slow down NOT A CRASH did happen how long at the recommended rate of inflation would it take for wages (going up inline with inflation) to reach more normal house price to wage ratios?!

The ECB has a target of 2% inflation. You've pointed out the very problem with people taking out huge debts in the current climate.

In the past hyper-inflation scrubbed off peoples real debt as the years went by. Before, central banks never laid such importance on maintaining "price stability" since they were often tied politically to maintaining other things also such as high employment etc. IMHO with the ECB present now this is not likely to happen this time around.

Would it not be impossible to get figures for the money being sent abroad as mentioned above? i.e to determine if its a drop in the ocean or tsunami etc

True. Very hard to guage accurately, but I would guess that it is not insignificant. This money can be considered an import in terms of accounting for the country.

 

[poormouth]

Regulator wants Credit Union debt action

[broken link removed]

Bet on a number of these bad debts to be deposit loans for the FTB. Would'nt fancy underwriting the loan book of any Irish Lender at the minute.

I think that when the Bear maket in the Irish housing market is in full swing a lot of dodgy and corrupt practices will be exposed.

 

[conor_mc]

Sorry Beattie
I wonder if that is the guy from Offaly who was on an RTE show a few months ago "Made in the USA" or something like that ??

Nope, different guy. That guy actually made it! He'd been in Chicago since the early 90's.

This guy just swanned into town a few months ago and jumped on the bandwagon at the wrong time.....

 

[phoenix_n]

Why is there such a difference in new car registrations between Ireland and Germany?

they get tax incentives to buy german cars.

 

[conor_mc]

I think that when the Bear maket in the Irish housing market is in full swing a lot of dodgy and corrupt practices will be exposed.

Oh joy, more tribunals I'm sure......

 

[Arthur Daley]

This thread isn't the pit of hissing snakes for property bulls that it used to be. Is this because prices have merely levelled off, and a bit of reality has just been injected into the market rater than the long awaited big correction or even crash?

My own view is that it will take a lot more interest rate rises to rock the market enough for it to tip. The 'property only goes up' and 'we're different' attitude is so entrenched in Ireland now. Although there is a fair time lag for the rises that have happened to fully impact. I'm not totally sure all lenders passed on all of the recent rises just so they can ensure that the party goes on for that bit longer. I know they did talk about holding some of the rises back to 'help first time buyers'

Yes fair values are probably around the 2001 level in real terms but it seems that it will be a while before this corrects itself.

 

[whathome]

Is this because prices have merely levelled off?

Have they? How do you know this?

 

[Arthur Daley]

I don't know this for sure. Does anybody? I do know in my area (Swords)everything for sale seems to have gone sale agreed quickly enough but the impending announcement of the metro which was supposed to be last month may be a local factor here.

 

[Neffa]

they get tax incentives to buy german cars.

You mean SSIA's then?

 

[whathome]

I don't know this for sure. Does anybody? I do know in my area (Swords)everything for sale seems to have gone sale agreed quickly enough but the impending announcement of the metro which was supposed to be last month may be a local factor here.

Swords inventory is the highest I've ever seen - 144 properties.

Swords Inventory (myhome)
June 20th: 74
September 5th: 126
Today (Oct 13th): 144

Asking prices are falling. We won't know the exact story on current closing prices in Dublin until ESRI/PTSB data in a few months due to lag. Right now, rising inventory and falling asking prices point to continued weakening market rather than prices leveling off.

 

[Arthur Daley]

Fair enough inventory is up buyers are wearing the trousers and prices may fall 5-10%. But it just feels some way from the tipping point that would unlock the inflation which quite a few people feel has been there since 2000.

 

[miju]

remember arthur a crash doesnt have to be over night if prices fells say 40% over the course of 6-12 months in my book (and prob alot of others) that would equate to a crash of prices as well, as we've seen in other countries these things can take a while to play out

 

[whathome]

But it just feels some way from the tipping point that would unlock the inflation which quite a few people feel has been there since 2000.

Yeah, I think you're right on this - we're just past the top of the curve so it will take some time for negative momentum to build.

 

[dloob]

Just noticed in the Galway Advertiser a 3 bed apartment near me in Galway that came on the market just over 3 weeks ago at 420K, is this week new to the market at 375K.
The 420 was pretty crazy as it's on the edge of the city but interesting to see it drop so quickly and by so much.

 

[SHARP]

Not that I don't think the economy here is headed for trouble (for which most people are ill prepared) but perhaps the decline in new car sales is due to people holding out on purchasing until next year's SSIA money give-away?

That was my thinking too, but then I hear the amount of people that have already spent their SSIA's in advance and that the impending money will be used to pay off the loan taken out in expectation of the SSIA money arriving.
Weird country this

 

[Arthur Daley]

Yeah, I think you're right on this - we're just past the top of the curve so it will take some time for negative momentum to build.

The thing is what is that tipping point, as once she goes it won't be pretty. Unless you're one of these guys who've sold to go back renting

I think a few reports of the Esri/Ptsb index falling for a few months could have a big emotional effect on the average punter, combined with a few more rate rises next year to bring the ECB more into line with the Dollar and sterling area cycles. the timing of this may though get offset by the ssia euphoria.