Current public sentiment towards the housing market?

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zac said:
sorry dint mean to patronize, to be honest i havn't got a clue whether to buy or not in irish residential market, neither do those EAs i think.
PS i do not own a house
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Whats the point in making such a big deal over whether someone is a bear or one of zac's "real bears" then? What is it to you?

In fairness, most of the bears have put forward rational arguments for their beliefs. You've just admitted you don't really have any belief, yet you continue to patronise and condescend towards those who do but haven't walked the walk??? Since you don't actually own property, I doubt you really understand what you are expecting of people so they can prove their credentials to someone who hasn't even the maturity to develop his own thoughts and opinions on the situation the country faces.

Why don't you come back with some well thought-out, rational arguments as to what the future may hold for the Irish property market. Until then, why not keep your immature cajones-comparison to yourself.
 
zac said:
jaysus i just read on sunday buss post that ppl were queuing there on tuesday night, before they opened the place on thursday...

is this true?

guess builders dint see the queue before dropping the price, they must be reading this board instead.
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I wonder if the builders are paying people to queue here...;)
 
From Today's Sunday Times Ireland:

Prepare for a bang when the property bubble bursts

http://business.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,8214-2393385,00.html

YOU know an asset bubble is just about stretched to its limit when the people who have made the most money by inflating it insist a “soft landing” is a sure thing.

How can a mere 1.5% price hike in Dublin property during the entire third quarter of this year be a “best result” when the previous two quarters reported cumulative price rises of 21.5%? Sounds more like a “thud” than a soft landing to me.
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Reading the start of this thread gives the impression that both posters are either:

a) The same person faking a discussion
or
b) Sitting beside each other in an office.

http://www.askaboutmoney.com/showthread.php?t=37955

Both people brand new to AAM with responses flying back and forth, sometimes in the same minute and then the 8th post results in the magic EA phone number!

I wonder how much EA activity goes on in public forums. The most pathetic was when one poster hyping a development got caught by replying to himself!!!
 
bearishbull said:
Zac, do you beleive houses are overvalued? You seem to be very cynical and patronising. Your on AAM for last two weeks and have posted 50 times and every post is on this thread, so given you are only interested in this thread you are either concerned about the direction of the market or your trying to wind people up.
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bearishbull, yes I do believe houses are over valued here, that doesnt mean they cant get any more overvalue, market doesnt care about my belief or any one individuals'.

and yes i am cynical on extreme pessimism on this forum, which i personally feel does not reflect the true sentiment, in last couple of weeks i have only seen one or two posts about positives, so was just trying to balance things out. also cynical on those making predictions here and those who know exactly what is going to happen, only tried them to wind up not others.

theres some good information here, people who posts news links etc, or those detectives who discover price drops, fair play to them, i like facts not a big fan of opinions, also cynical on the fact that negatives news appears here in jiffy, but positives one dont. no body mentioned PTSB index going up 1% in aug until few days after release, whereas evening hearld headline is apparently an exciting event.

i do care about commercial property though, funds i own making are doing well, and they have done me well so far, wont take long to dump them when trend change, but not based on anyones opinion.
 
Has the Q3 DAFT report been published anywhere yet? I saw it mentioned that they were talking about it on Newstalk but I can't find it on the web.
 
sandymount said:
Interesting to see how prices have risen most in high value southside locations. The fact that most auctions have been a washout in September would leave me to question this data.

Also house prices in West Dublin are now in decline in real terms when inflation is taken into account.
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This post was in reference to the DNG house price index. All the estate agent's house price indices have to be taken with a large pinch of salt as their methodology for calculating house price rises is extremely suspect. The only indices that are even remotely reputable are the DOE and ESRI indices. Reporting the SF and DNG indices are fact is like quoting from brochures as fact.
 
whathome said:
Reading the start of this thread gives the impression that both posters are either:

a) The same person faking a discussion
or
b) Sitting beside each other in an office.

http://www.askaboutmoney.com/showthread.php?t=37955

Both people brand new to AAM with responses flying back and forth, sometimes in the same minute and then the 8th post results in the magic EA phone number!

I wonder how much EA activity goes on in public forums. The most pathetic was when one poster hyping a development got caught by replying to himself!!!
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Great find whathome. Definetely something fishy going on there. I see you rattled a few cages in there and was accused of scaremongering of prospective buyers, so I think we can take it that there is EA activity on that thread. Those people writing to each other need to devise a more plausible strategy
 
Well EA's are definitely worried - new launches not going out as aggressively as previously.
And why would any FTB buy now anyway? Chances are Cowen will do something FTB-friendly with SD (my bet is increase exemption to over 381k level at least, don't see him abolishing it entirely) so why buy a new-build now when you might be able to buy a SD-free 2nd hand in better location in the New Year?
Still won't help the investor-side of the starter-home market though.
Rental yields at high-end of the market at 2.6%? No thanks...

[broken link removed]
 
zac said:
bearishbull, yes I do believe houses are over valued here, that doesnt mean they cant get any more overvalue, market doesnt care about my belief or any one individuals'.

and yes i am cynical on extreme pessimism on this forum, which i personally feel does not reflect the true sentiment, in last couple of weeks i have only seen one or two posts about positives, so was just trying to balance things out. also cynical on those making predictions here and those who know exactly what is going to happen, only tried them to wind up not others.
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If we look at this thread then it started in summer. There were almost no prices falls then. Yet a number of the contributors called it as they saw it. Lo and behold the media has almost did a backflip in september and rehashed most of what was on here. Look at the Sindo article today and it lists one fall listed here and some other hefty falls - up to 600,000 euro on a 3.3m property. That is a massive drop to anyone, it is unprecedented in the past couple of years.

Why would someone cut their price like that unless sentiment is dropping off. It amazes me in terms of scale and how rapid.

EAs do know where the market is going, that is why they sold. They know the market better than anyone and they took the cash and walked. That is worth more than a 1000 soundbites.

However agree that is not to say there is not a budget giveaway / a new cashback 1000 year mortgage deals that cannot give the market a few more quarters. As before IMO it will be 2007 Q3 / Q4 before we really start to see a change.

IMO if you are about to become an FTB there is now very little that you will lose by sitting out the market until Sept 07 when the picture will be clearer after SSIA has gone to bed.
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whizzbang said:
Quality! it reads like an Ad from Newstalk! Just assume one is a man's voice and the other is a woman's!
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Yes, well spotted whathome. This board is probably swarning with EA's. Oh well, I guess they've lots of time to spare nowadays. Waiting for the phone to ring is probably so terribly boring. Might as well mess about online and try (in vain) to drum up some business :rolleyes:
 
in the u.s.a. house prices behave in a supply/demand commodity fashion
people are very mobile_big country_changing job _very fluid_easy to relocate
also are a much more insecure and have less welfare safety net so hardly walk in to an astronomical house price mortgage
in ireland what we have is a population who have been brainwashed into accepting ridiculously high house prices
all our soothsayers_banks,politicians,builders ,land owners,economic commentators,compliant media have cheerleadered the whole process of higher and still higher house prices
of course construction workers and the rest of the population have been told and made to feel that this_boom was good for them and for ireland and anyway we deserved it_it was our turn
many thousands of course bought overpriced homes
easy to criticise these buyers as foolish ,but the price paid is usually the maximum that the buyer for a particular property can afford
i mean if the bank will give a 100%mortgage ona property in a commuter belt town and decide that a person with an average pay can borrow 400 0r 500k should we be surprised that this is the price the estate agent says the property is worth
it really is a disgrace this transfer of wealth from indebted mortgage holders to land owners and a lot of professionALS who were rich to begin with . okay a bit of moral outrage/ala eam dunphy.ido appreciate you need greed to get things done
of course irish prices are going to be reduced/corrected
the form of correction _wellim not sure about
if there is a real recession with high unemployment _it will be very serious_.>50%imo
all the immigrants _most are economic migrants will leave_i mean they cant get dole_and im talking 1980s unemployment
most irish people wont be able to emigrate as easy as before
i mean there is a vast surplus of cheap labour to contend with in each country why did so many come here
probably most will stay here and get the gov to pay rent_the land lords will get the gov rent check all right
meanwhile there wont be much building for 5 to 10 years as not many can afford the now more realistic prices
in the uk house prices are also high_one of the main reason is there not building so much_a whole lot of people getting gov to pay their rent_so they get stuck in a welfare rut_they find that the jobs available they pay much more than their rent allowance and dole
i think this might be irelands future
of course its here already
im envisioning a slowdown and shakeout with a lot of rich property owners and a much increased underclass stuck in a rut
as for industry and factories _very little_lots of cheap imports incl food_
but who cares about the country as long as you have feather bedded yourself and your family_
in time another boom will occur ....
 
Hi guys,
Arguments taken on board, re a list of falling house prices and the disruption to this thread. Totally understand.
I have created a blog for this at: http://irishhousepricesfalling.blogspot.com/

I'll be back here regularly (keen reader of this thread for a while now) to find examples, and please feel free to add your examples to the blog.
 
Jeanne said:
Yes, well spotted whathome. This board is probably swarning with EA's. Oh well, I guess they've lots of time to spare nowadays. Waiting for the phone to ring is probably so terribly boring. Might as well mess about online and try (in vain) to drum up some business :rolleyes:
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I was enjoying that thread until I attempted to access the third page. Then I was directed to a screen saying I did not have privileges to access. Just me or others as well ?
 
whathome said:
Reading the start of this thread gives the impression that both posters are either:

a) The same person faking a discussion
or
b) Sitting beside each other in an office.

http://www.askaboutmoney.com/showthread.php?t=37955

Both people brand new to AAM with responses flying back and forth, sometimes in the same minute and then the 8th post results in the magic EA phone number!

I wonder how much EA activity goes on in public forums. The most pathetic was when one poster hyping a development got caught by replying to himself!!!
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Hi Whathome,

Thanks for bringing this to our attention. The thread has been moved away for consideration of the moderators/admininistrators.

Have you considered using the "report post" functionality? Its the triangular road sign with the exclaimation mark.

In the meantime please keep this thread on topic ie "Current public sentiment towards the housing market"? And note that moderation decisions are not genearlly discussed.

Thanks,
aj
 
whathome said:
Reading the start of this thread gives the impression that both posters are either:

a) The same person faking a discussion
or
b) Sitting beside each other in an office.

http://www.askaboutmoney.com/showthread.php?t=37955

Both people brand new to AAM with responses flying back and forth, sometimes in the same minute and then the 8th post results in the magic EA phone number!

I wonder how much EA activity goes on in public forums. The most pathetic was when one poster hyping a development got caught by replying to himself!!!
Click to expand...

I saw this at the wekend, and posted a reply this morning (as it happens I also lived around there for 4 years, and the airport noise from the nth/sth runway was terrible whenever they used that runway (high winds etc).

However, I've just been kicked out of the post, and I notice its no-where to be found at the moment. I guess its removed.

Also interesting to do a search on Volvichead's messages, ALL talking up different developments, around the city. ("go see their Marketing Suite, its excellent!", and so forth)

the place is full of EA's (although the tend to stay way from this thread).
 
I gave last time an example of the house price dropping from 435 to 380.
New record - todays asking price is 365 (70k =16% form the initial price!!!)
[broken link removed]=

from 19/09/2006
total houses in Bray and Greystones for sale increased from 124 to 149
houses with asking price <381 from 4 to 7
houses on the South <381 (except Talagh) from 41 to 46
 
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