Current public sentiment towards the housing market?

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For what it's worth I agree with bearishbull! The OP suggested copying his post and adding your own price drops. The result I believe is simply a long boring post, to which, the moderators would possibly object. I've seen them ask people not to copy full posts when replying. It's difficult enough to keep up with posts on this thread without having to trawl through repetitive posts.
 
Interesting.A couple of weeks ago when people were posting drops in asking prices there were people making statements like 'one swallow doesn't make a summer'. Now were been asked to only report bigger drops.
How long before it becomes, 'Only report drops in excess of 15% or 20%'
From 14% growth in the first 3 months to an expected 0% growth in the last three months is a very quick turn of events. A bit the like game against Cyprus last night it could all turn very bad.
 
bearishbull said:
Like this quote from Nick Leeson in todays SBP.

While the IMF and the Economist have warned about how long the property market can continue at this pace, the property bulls quickly dismiss the findings as not taking into account Ireland’s unique conditions.

They are also quick to point out that anyone who had taken this advice a year ago would have missed out on the capital appreciation since then. That is understandable but mortgages are taken out over far longer periods and this has to be taken into account.

http://tinyurl.co.uk/31g7
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I liked this quote by Nick Leeson myself:

"Having assumed a few risky positions in my life, I would be very wary about investing in the Irish property market - it would represent significant high risk"
 
Jeanne said:
Given that house prices are dropping, fairly significantly in some cases, makes me wonder is it better to have high interest rates and low house prices or low interest rates and ridiculous house prices?

Is there a big difference? Which is better all around? Perhaps it's the better of two evils to have high interest rates and low house prices.
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Good question!

I agree with you and think that high interest rates and low house prices would provide a more solid market since it would encourage people to save a large deposit before buying. High interest rates make it easier to save as well as making the mortgage payments more punishing. Buyers starting off at lower LTV ratings obviously have a better cushion should there be a fall in prices or a downturn.

Low interest rates do the exact oppposite and let people jump headfirst into debt with nothing more than a "Sure it'll be grand". Hence the enornmous increase in prices these last few years. If you take into consideration the transaction fees, furnishing and decoration costs etc., people with 100% mortages are already in negative equity when they buy. To be honest, I don't think that sort of environment can provide any kind of stability and even a mild slowdown could force it to collapse on itself.
 
I think Mr Leeson's article was no more than a reprint of what has already been writen about the Irish property market. My God, most of it was taken word for word from other reports.
I was expecting far more of his own thoughts.Saying that if I was considering investing, his article would have me seriously rethink where I was putting my money.
 
Good 1/2 page article in the Sunday Indo by Jane Suiter. Glad I bought it this morning :)

Shows a few examples of significant house price drops around Dublin.

Covers the arguments for and against a soft landing.

Also does a brief whirlwind tour of (mostly) deflating property bubbles around the world.
 
zac said:
i would rather not count "not buying" category, there could be multiple reasons for them to be not buying, like maybe they cant afford to, more importantly they dint buy last year, 2 years ago, 3 years ago, or 5 years ago, and they have been proven wrong so far, why would somebody listen to their opinion, they have been constantly wrong so far.
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let just call them the boys who cried wolf? ;)
 
New builds.

Prices falling in Adamstown (New Build)

The Paddocks is the new release in Adamstown launched last week.
2 bedroom apartments started off last week at €305,000 but have now been dropped to €290,000.

Original launch details:
http://www.unison.ie/irish_independent/stories.php3?ca=303&si=1701582&issue_id=14736

Prices start from €305,000 for a two-bed apartment
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New Price: €290,000
 
They say that the irish property and business boom started with packies save against Romania, I wonder will it end with a hammering by Cyprus
 
zac said:
yea, probably better way to describe them :)
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Again I come back to the most recent bubble that was burst - the Nasdaq. Note the "logical arguments" were dismissed for a few years however after peaking above 5000 it fell to 1600. Now the "logical arguers" missed the gains above say 3000 but if they had "long term" invested at that level (ie 3000 ) they would still be down 30% today - Nasdaq is currently at 2200ish.

The "long term" is a phrase that gets used to justify bubble asset purchasing but IMO we may not see April 2006 house prices for 20 years in nominal terms ignoring real terms.

The real economy in Ireland is probably less competitive today than at any time in the past. And as per my post above when the slowdown happens the govt will have to start raising taxes to make up for declining property taxes depressing things even further as they have got used to gorging themselves on boom receipts otherwise known as benchmarking.

Remember post construction boom real private sector wages will fall whereas public wages will not.

Some elements of the German workforce have averaged 0.3% wage increases for the past 6 years - how can businesses in Ireland compete after the past 6 years rises. Is it any wonder they are an export powerhouse.
Furthermore rising interest rates could actually drive the German economy up as they have so much savings - in any event rising interest rate sensitivity is far far lower there than in Ireland or Spain.
 
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whathome said:
New builds.

Prices falling in Adamstown (New Build)

The Paddocks is the new release in Adamstown launched last week.
2 bedroom apartments started off last week at €305,000 but have now been dropped to €290,000.

Original launch details:
http://www.unison.ie/irish_independent/stories.php3?ca=303&si=1701582&issue_id=14736



New Price: €290,000
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dont think independent had correct price, they have sold about 250 units in 4 days, no 2 bed apartements left, only 1 or 2 sh*ty terraced 3 bed left, was there this morning, there were still lot of ppl there putting their name down for next phase and cancellations, doubt it if they need to drop price, they will prob increase it for next phase after seeing the demand, bast***s.

there is still plenty of money out there, this fourm's members need to work even harder to scare buyers.
 
Maine said:
Again I come back to the most recent bubble that was burst - the Nasdaq. Note the "logical arguments" were dismissed for a few years however after peaking above 5000 it fell to 1600. Now the "logical arguers" missed the gains above say 3000 but if they had "long term" invested at that level (ie 3000 ) they would still be down 30% today - Nasdaq is currently at 2200ish.

The "long term" is a phrase that gets used to justify bubble asset purchasing but IMO we may not see April 2006 house prices for 20 years in nominal terms ignoring real terms.

The real economy in Ireland is probably less competitive today than at any time in the past. And as per my post above when the slowdown happens the govt will have to start raising taxes to make up for declining property taxes depressing things even further as they have got used to gorging themselves on boom receipts otherwise known as benchmarking.

Remember post construction boom real private sector wages will fall whereas public wages will not.

Some elements of the German workforce have averaged 0.3% wage increases for the past 6 years - how can businesses in Ireland compete after the past 6 years rises. Is it any wonder they are an export powerhouse.
Furthermore rising interest rates could actually drive the German economy up as they have so much savings - in any event rising interest rate sensitivity is far far lower there than in Ireland or Spain.
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yea heard all of this before,

so what is your plan then to capitalize on this 20 yr price stagnation?
 
zac said:
dont think independent had correct price
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New Build Prices falling in Adamstown

The independent had the correct original price €305,000 as does today's Sunday Business Post. The DNG website and myhome.ie were both listing €305,000 last week.

Here's the old price (305,000) in today's sbpost, obviously written before the price drop!
[broken link removed]

They're now reduced to €290,000 on myhome as well.
[broken link removed]=
 
zac said:
yea heard all of this before,

so what is your plan then to capitalize on this 20 yr price stagnation?
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Its too easy to laugh at those who have not bought for good rational reasons. It has been alot braver not to buy than to buy - few have not bought. This resembles the value investors who ignored the dot com yet were ridiculed by the majority who followed analysts buy notes merrily. Later of course it was found that some of these star analysts were privately describing these dot com stocks as crap and "do not touch them with a barge pole".

This reminds me of the EAs who sold out this summer - great timing ...publicly talking up the market but privately taking the cash and walking. Do you really think if they thought the market was really going to continue to boom they would have sold out. This includes those EAs who flogged myhome. Bill Gates did not flog his microsoft stock when he was building MS because he knew it was going to get bigger and there was no better place to put his money. The EAs have taken the cash and have probably put it on deposit at the local bank.

Time for more perspective from you - some rational arguments as to whether we should buy or sell, invest or not and less patronising comments.

PS I first bought property back in 1998.
 
whathome said:
The independent had the correct original price €305,000 as does today's Sunday Business Post. The DNG website and myhome.ie were both listing €305,000 last week.

Here's the old price (305,000) in today's sbpost, obviously written before the price drop!
[broken link removed]

They're now reduced to €290,000 on myhome as well.
[broken link removed]=
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jaysus i just read on sunday buss post that ppl were queuing there on tuesday night, before they opened the place on thursday...

is this true?

guess builders dint see the queue before dropping the price, they must be reading this board instead.
 
Maine said:
Time for more perspective from you - some rational arguments as to whether we should buy or sell, invest or not and less patronising comments.
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Haven't you noticed Maine? Zac has been working very hard trying to count bears.
 
Maine said:
Its too easy to laugh at those who have not bought for good rational reasons. It has been alot braver not to buy than to buy - few have not bought. This resembles the value investors who ignored the dot com yet were ridiculed by the majority who followed analysts buy notes merrily. Later of course it was found that some of these star analysts were privately describing these dot com stocks as crap and "do not touch them with a barge pole".

This reminds me of the EAs who sold out this summer - great timing ...publicly talking up the market but privately taking the cash and walking. Do you really think if they thought the market was really going to continue to boom they would have sold out. This includes those EAs who flogged myhome. Bill Gates did not flog his microsoft stock when he was building MS because he knew it was going to get bigger and there was no better place to put his money. The EAs have taken the cash and have probably put it on deposit at the local bank.

Time for more perspective from you - some rational arguments as to whether we should buy or sell, invest or not and less patronising comments.

PS I first bought property back in 1998.
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sorry dint mean to patronize, to be honest i havn't got a clue whether to buy or not in irish residential market, neither do those EAs i think.
PS i do not own a house
 
zac said:
sorry dint mean to patronize, to be honest i havn't got a clue whether to buy or not in irish residential market, neither do those EAs i think.
PS i do not own a house
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Zac, do you beleive houses are overvalued? You seem to be very cynical and patronising. Your on AAM for last two weeks and have posted 50 times and every post is on this thread, so given you are only interested in this thread you are either concerned about the direction of the market or your trying to wind people up.
 
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