D
Thise guys post is quite worrying for anyone selling......
Comments:
I wrote this further down on the buying or selling thread on 14/9/2006
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I used to be an estate agent.
Have 6 friends who still are.
They are superb agents, second to none.
About 3 weeks ago the market popped !
Buckets on for sale, more than ever before .... and NOBODY interested in even viewing.
One mate of mine works in a well-known agency.
They have 75 properties on the books .... and only 5 bids. And even they are shaky. only 1 bidder, no counter bidders.
Everyone in the office is twiddling their thumbs as the phones are not ringing.
Im not talking about no bids, Im talking about no one even ringing.
They are cancelling viewings laft, right and centre as not even 1 person is looking.
This is in the centre of Dublin, encompassing 1st time buyer market and some 2nd time buyer €700k+ properties.
Party's over folks !
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Now 2/10/06
SINCE ive written this the markets gotten worse.
When you read about new launches being 'sold out' .. try calling a week or two later and you will see whats still on offer i.e. LOADS !
Auction rooms are dead.
One estate agent in dublin had 7 auctions last thursday and no one even turned up - let alone bid !
Swathes of 2nd hand properties not selling.
The only property thats selling are the ones where the owners are cutting prices. Prices have definately come DOWN.
All this evidence doesnt point to the bubble popping .. its pointing to the bubble having already popped. Past tense !
Always remember, unlike stock prices, property prices are sticky.
If someone has a house for sale at 700k and the market is only willing to pay 650k then the house just sits there. Official statistics dont record a decline, even if the market drops to 600k.
The knifes just gone in ... theres going to be a bloodbath !
I dont know why people spend so much on houses in rural areas where theres loads of land to build on in the future. In the long run if theres demand for property is such areas more houses will be built at lower cost(even allowing for planning issues). I wouldnt pay more than cost of building and land plus 30% for a rural property.
Down in Docklands?
A rise in repossessions is casting a shadow over one of London’s property success stories, discovers Helen Davies
The regeneration of east London’s Docklands has been one of the capital’s great property success stories. Since the summer of 1981, developers have transformed crumbling wharves into yuppie loft apartments, and built steel and glass towers. There is even a three-storey Waitrose.
A quarter of a century later, buildings are still going up. But the area is not proving an unmitigated success for a number of buy-to-let investors, who have borrowed heavily in order to buy and are now struggling to keep up with mortgage payments and cover rental voids.
Adam Stackhouse, head of sales at Chesterton’s Tower Bridge office, estimates 25%-30% of properties on his books are repossessions, most originally bought by investors.
“They started to gather momentum 18 months ago and have grown steadily ever since,” he says. “Amateur buy-to-let investors who simply barnstormed into the market have found themselves in over their heads.”
Nor can those selling count on large capital gains. Savills Residential Research says the average value of flats “east of City” (which includes Wapping, Bermondsey, Limehouse and the Isle of Dogs) rose by just 2.2% between September 2002 and June 2006. With a further 24,000 units in the pipeline, future capital growth is likely to remain subdued.
wow.. Its just one "good news" story after another this morning ...
Does anyone have any way of actually knowing how many houses/apartments were actually sold in the first month of the autumn season...
... careful what ye wish for lads ...
ESRI says a US slowdown could lead to 90,000 jobs lost in Ireland.
Does not appear to include job losses in construction as housing slows ??
Calls for reductions in immigration from new EU entrants.
http://www.finfacts.com/irelandbusinessnews/publish/article_10007468.shtml
In the General Assessment, the ESRI return to the slowdown in the US and discuss the possible implications for Ireland. The forecast slowing in the US, from GDP growth of 3.4 per cent in 2006 to 2.5 per cent in 2007, is not in itself a very dramatic slowdown. However, the possibility of a stronger slowdown moving the US into recession is real since the house price assumption on which the current forecast is based may prove to be optimistic. In a statement on immigration policy the ESRI calls for a cautious approach to the number of admissions in the near future
I'm sure they are all quietly asleep on their bed of money.The Property Investment thread next door is quiet today isn't it?
Irish nation "behaving more like a drug addict than a well-oiled business – high on cheap money"
The Property Investment thread next door is quiet today isn't it?
How will the irish crash affect property in say Poland. Had thought about buying there but wonder if the money dries up here will that affect the prices abroad. Are we a mini-America to some places in eastern europe.
How will the irish crash affect property in say Poland. Had thought about buying there but wonder if the money dries up here will that affect the prices abroad. Are we a mini-America to some places in eastern europe.
It depends. What was your original exit strategy? Were you hoping to simply sell on to another Paddy at some point in the future or were you buying in an area of strong local employment and growth?
Any market which is based on the premise of simply selling on to a greater fool doesn't really get much time from me.
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