Current public sentiment towards the housing market?

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Billings may not be Dublin but the growth in inventory and the refusal to take it into account is similar to the disavowal of Dublin EAs. The fact the feeling of immunity to a crash is felt there too is interesting, we all seem too incapable to think about harder times, and are all schooled in an amazing denial mechanism. I feel this may be generational. There is something linking risk-taking and fear of outside forces having a more powerful role than we would like. I am not sure what it is, but it doesn't seem to be local. We may be more susceptible though.
 
Thise guys post is quite worrying for anyone selling......

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I wrote this further down on the buying or selling thread on 14/9/2006

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I used to be an estate agent.
Have 6 friends who still are.
They are superb agents, second to none.
About 3 weeks ago the market popped !
Buckets on for sale, more than ever before .... and NOBODY interested in even viewing.

One mate of mine works in a well-known agency.
They have 75 properties on the books .... and only 5 bids. And even they are shaky. only 1 bidder, no counter bidders.

Everyone in the office is twiddling their thumbs as the phones are not ringing.
Im not talking about no bids, Im talking about no one even ringing.
They are cancelling viewings laft, right and centre as not even 1 person is looking.

This is in the centre of Dublin, encompassing 1st time buyer market and some 2nd time buyer €700k+ properties.

Party's over folks !
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Now 2/10/06

SINCE ive written this the markets gotten worse.
When you read about new launches being 'sold out' .. try calling a week or two later and you will see whats still on offer i.e. LOADS !

Auction rooms are dead.
One estate agent in dublin had 7 auctions last thursday and no one even turned up - let alone bid !
Swathes of 2nd hand properties not selling.

The only property thats selling are the ones where the owners are cutting prices. Prices have definately come DOWN.

All this evidence doesnt point to the bubble popping .. its pointing to the bubble having already popped. Past tense !

Always remember, unlike stock prices, property prices are sticky.
If someone has a house for sale at 700k and the market is only willing to pay 650k then the house just sits there. Official statistics dont record a decline, even if the market drops to 600k.

The knifes just gone in ... theres going to be a bloodbath !

If this is true (and I actually think it may be), then we really are showing signs that we are right at the start of a collapse.

Everybody hold tight now........
 
I dont know why people spend so much on houses in rural areas where theres loads of land to build on in the future. In the long run if theres demand for property is such areas more houses will be built at lower cost(even allowing for planning issues). I wouldnt pay more than cost of building and land plus 30% for a rural property.

Builder is building those Clare houses with a decent fit out for circa 300,000. That means a buyer is paying about 400,000 for the site. Now there will always be planning granted in places like Clare - what else are people going to do but build houses - councillors know this but can be a bit stricter at the moment as the boom means they do not need to worry about the jobs aspect.

IMO we are way past worrying about planning in this country beyond a bunch of really top class sites i.e. the cliffs of moher will not be built on.

The agricultural value of each house site - max 5,000. Hence there is along way up to 400,000.
 
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London’s Docklands was the destination for a lot of green Irish bubble money over the past few years. The market however, seems to be struggling; due to insipid rental yields, voids and a poor resale’s market. Irish exposure to high risk bubble markets across the globe may have an impact back home.

The Times.



Down in Docklands?
A rise in repossessions is casting a shadow over one of London’s property success stories, discovers Helen Davies


The regeneration of east London’s Docklands has been one of the capital’s great property success stories. Since the summer of 1981, developers have transformed crumbling wharves into yuppie loft apartments, and built steel and glass towers. There is even a three-storey Waitrose.


A quarter of a century later, buildings are still going up. But the area is not proving an unmitigated success for a number of buy-to-let investors, who have borrowed heavily in order to buy and are now struggling to keep up with mortgage payments and cover rental voids.


Adam Stackhouse, head of sales at Chesterton’s Tower Bridge office, estimates 25%-30% of properties on his books are repossessions, most originally bought by investors.

“They started to gather momentum 18 months ago and have grown steadily ever since,” he says. “Amateur buy-to-let investors who simply barnstormed into the market have found themselves in over their heads.”

Nor can those selling count on large capital gains. Savills Residential Research says the average value of flats “east of City” (which includes Wapping, Bermondsey, Limehouse and the Isle of Dogs) rose by just 2.2% between September 2002 and June 2006. With a further 24,000 units in the pipeline, future capital growth is likely to remain subdued.

http://property.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,14049-2378182,00.html
 
"ECB policymakers have reason to feel smug. The economy's surprising strength is forcing financial markets to reconsider how far the rate rises might go, and not even a welcome drop in oil prices and inflation is likely to break their stride."



"For central bankers, it says that the economy is strong enough to absorb further steps toward monetary policy normalisation," said Eric Chaney, European economist for Morgan Stanley. After the year-end, the outlook is less clear. If strong growth continues - as ECB staff currently predict - rates of at least 4 per cent by the end of 2007 should not be ruled out, one senior ECB central banker told Reuters recently."

From today's Irish Times.
 
wow.. Its just one "good news" story after another this morning ...

Does anyone have any way of actually knowing how many houses/apartments were actually sold in the first month of the autumn season...

... careful what ye wish for lads ...
 
wow.. Its just one "good news" story after another this morning ...

Does anyone have any way of actually knowing how many houses/apartments were actually sold in the first month of the autumn season...

... careful what ye wish for lads ...

I wouldn't wish a speculative asset bubble on any nation.
 
From an indo article about LA. It can't happen here though, as the worst that can happen us is a soft landing, thats what the estate agent said and they know everything.

Just a few months ago, "open houses" in LA were like orgies. Real estate brokers would lay out tables of finger-food, while throngs of potential buyers would swoon over the stainless steel bathroom fixtures, fantasise about the remodelling potential (we can fit a hot tub in the back!) and, most importantly, jostle to outbid each other.
These days the ahi tuna canapes are gone, the brokers look ill and the only buyers are professional vultures, offering 30pc below listing.
 
ESRI says a US slowdown could lead to 90,000 jobs lost in Ireland.

Does not appear to include job losses in construction as housing slows ??:eek:

Calls for reductions in immigration from new EU entrants.

http://www.finfacts.com/irelandbusinessnews/publish/article_10007468.shtml


In the General Assessment, the ESRI return to the slowdown in the US and discuss the possible implications for Ireland. The forecast slowing in the US, from GDP growth of 3.4 per cent in 2006 to 2.5 per cent in 2007, is not in itself a very dramatic slowdown. However, the possibility of a stronger slowdown moving the US into recession is real since the house price assumption on which the current forecast is based may prove to be optimistic. In a statement on immigration policy the ESRI calls for a cautious approach to the number of admissions in the near future


The reason that the ERSI are calling for a brake on new migrants is the probability that there wont be work for them here. They mention the risk of the bursting US housing bubble but make no mention whatsoever of the higher risk Irish market? Pretty worthless analysis.
 
Would the last one out of the Property Investment thread please turn off the lights?
 
The Property Investment thread next door is quiet today isn't it?;)

How will the irish crash affect property in say Poland. Had thought about buying there but wonder if the money dries up here will that affect the prices abroad. Are we a mini-America to some places in eastern europe.
 
How will the irish crash affect property in say Poland. Had thought about buying there but wonder if the money dries up here will that affect the prices abroad. Are we a mini-America to some places in eastern europe.

It depends. What was your original exit strategy? Were you hoping to simply sell on to another Paddy at some point in the future or were you buying in an area of strong local employment and growth?

Any market which is based on the premise of simply selling on to a greater fool doesn't really get much time from me.
 
How will the irish crash affect property in say Poland. Had thought about buying there but wonder if the money dries up here will that affect the prices abroad. Are we a mini-America to some places in eastern europe.

We can't have a crash, only a soft landing and 5% house price growth, I wish ye would start reading the estate agents predictions, they know everything!:rolleyes:
 
It depends. What was your original exit strategy? Were you hoping to simply sell on to another Paddy at some point in the future or were you buying in an area of strong local employment and growth?

Any market which is based on the premise of simply selling on to a greater fool doesn't really get much time from me.

I do business over in Poland so i had my research done well and prices have gone up accordingly. You'd have been mad to buy in ireland in '96 aswell so one always has to work on pure figures which I do.

However in the end i was too exposed to mainland europe so didnt go for it.

But back to my original point. Will a Irish Crash (currently happening in slow motion) affect prices in eastern europe and to a lesser extent spain.
 
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