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It's all relative. Three months ago this was merely a discussion on an obscure website populated by like-minded people who share in interest in financial matters, now it's on national radio for Joe Soap to hear all about it.
And you won't hear about any of this on Adrian Kennedy either, at least until people are actually in negative equity and need a soap-box so they can blame the banks, the estate agents, the builders.... and, of course, exonerate themselves.
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bren2002
Guest
Fair point
This is a completely false belief going back to the high/stagflation economy of 80's Ireland. Part of buying into the Euro is low inflation (circa 2% per year). This is just not going to happen.
1.02^30 times 300,000 = 543,000
1.02^30 times 30,000 (average industial wage) = 54,000
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walk2dewater
Guest
Bingo. Sentiment, then inventory build up, then mexican stand-off, then cheaper prices...
Remember the lenders have been very busy with the securitisation process - selling the rights to mortgages to overseas investors, hedge funds etc.
You may have taken out your mortgage with your big friendly Irish bank but they merely service the mortgage - the rights could well be held by some stressed overseas hedge fund.
Not sure how much this will impact future foreclosure rates - time will tell I suppose.
bearishbull
Registered User
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Should have someone realistic and without a vested interest like jill kerby but will be one of the estate agent guys or a bank guy likes that media wh0re austin hughes.
CelloPoint
Registered User
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Might not be subject to the landlord's whims, but may be subject to the whims of the property management company. I would hate to live in a place where some clip-board jockey with a luminous jacket is forever knocking on your door telling you what you can and can't do.lightweight said:
I wouldn't live in Clondalkin if I was paid. In fact, my professor at university asked if I would move in to his spare house in Clondalkin at low rent about a year or two ago, which I politely refused.lightweight said:
BTW, we'll see how rents pan out over the next couple of years. The only way you'd see jumping on the housing gravy train is if I was paying substantially more to rent, than to buy. Right now, my landlord (also one of my best mates) is renting to me at a yield of @1% in D6. It just wouldn't make any sense for me to buy in this climate. (I have an eye on a flat in Berlin at the moment).
You're forgetting they've also payed the difference between renting (13k a year) and owning (23k a year), as well as 2k's worth of management fees etc. Therefore, they need capital appreciation of 12k each year, just to break even. The risk they've taken on is not worth the potential gain.lightweight said:
Not necessarily - you have to weigh up the risks involved in a potential downturn. If you play poker, you'd be aware of pot size to probability ratio. Now were I to weigh up the potential gain vs the probability of a crash, I'd fold my hand straight away. Irish property is a bit like playing an off-suit 2 & 7 with AAK on the board. (might make for a good bluff, but you can't bluff forever if the fundamentals just ain't there...)lightweight said:
Don't forget renters have a lot of options which owners don't. E.g. if they don't like their social housing neighbours, they can just go on daft and find a new place. Or, if the washing machine is broken, they can just ring up the landlord. Or, if they don't like the traffic, they can find somewhere closer to work. Or, if there's an economic crash, they can just up and leave and ride the next boom wherever it may be.lightweight said:
We've had the whole rent vs. buy debate already. Can't remember what the consensus was, but for me, it's: you'd be mad to buy in 2006.
bearishbull
Registered User
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yeah and once a hundred thousand people listening to the last word tell their family friends etc it spreads rapidly, any media in ireland isnt too far from mainstream. add this to indo and herald and numerous other bearish stories in media and sentiment cant not be affected
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bren2002
Guest
Late Night FM104, listened to by Taxi drivers.
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Debtwish
Guest
Gerry Ryan was just the other day banging on about how you can't go wrong with "bricks and mortar" for your pension.
How many BTL's has he got I wonder?
This is an interesting point. If your house in one of the debt securitisation packages sold to hungry-for-risk hedge funds, does this mean they have any entitlements if you default?
Who comes knocking on your door when you miss a payment, nice Jim the bank manager or an angry trader from Amaranth who has just lost $6bn on the commodities futures markets and doesn't fancy reporting any more losses this month?
I always read Jill Kerby, I think she's one of the few irish economic commentators out there talking sense, but she does work for RaboBank and in that sense she does has a vested interest in talking up non-property investments. That said I think she's spot-on w.r.t. property in Ireland.
Is Austin Hughes that bad either? His last article on FinFacts discussing ECB policy is excellent and he's one of the only Irish economists (employed by a major bank) out there that I can think of who say rates could likely go higher than 4% in 2007.
correct, and this is something people forget, that its the Germany pension fund money we are actually borrowing, as serviced by AIB/BOI or whomever.
The aging Germany population were not spending their life-savings, and certainly not borrowing from banks, in the mid-nineties. As banks are in effect, money lenders, the german banks needed to loan the money to someone, anyone; and the irish banks were only bursting to get their hands on it and loan it out to all us chaps. and so the Celtic tiger economy really got the party started
(I call it my 'celtic tiger description' in 100 words or less)
Gerry Ryan was just the other day banging on about how you can't go wrong with "bricks and mortar" for your pension.
How many BTL's has he got I wonder?
From his ivory tower in Donnybrook and his RTE salary he's far removed from the reality facing most people w.r.t. property and pensions. Still surprised as his comment though.
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StoppedClock
Guest
At what time and on what satation is The Last Word?
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