Current public sentiment towards the housing market?

[paddyd]

Massive oversupply + greatly reduced demand = large fall in price.

Which bit of this is failing to get through to the populace at large?

aren't 'massive oversupply' and 'greatly reduced demand' not the same thing

massive, greatly, large fall, ... i have to say it all sounds a bit panicky.

every report available shows supply not meeting demand for another 18 months.
now, that said, I think there is definitely a panic of investor property coming on to the market this month, but not enough to facilitate a LARGE fall in price; just an adjustment. most average example show properties that were quoting 410, now quoting 395 (or whatever), a 3.5% adjustment. There is probably enough potential for a 10% adjustment in the irish market, before I would ever start to worry about a burst bubble.

The sky isn't falling 'just' yet, but theres not much holding it up

 

[room305]

But sure as long as they're happy, isn't that all that matters? I'd say a market correction would soon wipe that stupid smirk off their (and their parents') faces.

Lol!

That's pretty harsh. Granted they have made a mistake which they will no doubt regret in future years. Why take so much pleasure in their future misery? They haven't hurt you any.

 

[ivuernis]

Living the "dream" eh? 2-bed flat in D15, traffic, tight belt and a property management company's bit%h. What a waste of youth.

But sure as long as they're happy, isn't that all that matters? I'd say a market correction would soon wipe that stupid smirk off their (and their parents') faces.

Lol!

Listen, it's PR on the part of the EA and the magazine in question. The couple probably got a few quid for doing it... why else would you want your private details like that splashed across a magazine.

Yes, I'm sure a market correction would put a different complexion on their faces but rubbing your hands in glee at the prospect of it going pear-shaped for them isn't exactly endearing either.

 

[plaudit]

every report available shows supply not meeting demand for another 18 months (about 60,000+ units per year).

If demand is 60000 and supply is 90000 whats your definition of oversupply?

 

[paddyd]

If demand is 60000 and supply is 90000 whats your definition of oversupply?

The 60k was just my own estimate (just found on AIB report that its 85,000, 60k irish, plus 25k foreign nationals, renters and buyers) I'll just edit the example out of the post above, so the post makes more sense

Affordability has a lot to do with the market (understatement of the year, i know), as once a First time buyer cannot afford a 100% mortgage, over 40 years, there is no further the banks can go, and they cannot enter the market, not without some financial family help (or 12 close friends ).

 

[conor_mc]

aren't 'massive oversupply' and 'greatly reduced demand' not the same thing

Nope. One is loadsa people trying to sell, the other is fewer people looking to buy.

As for those reports you mention, ask yourself who publishes them.... think about it now, what interest might a bank or an estate agent or the construction industry have in reinforcing positive sentiment?

Listen, if there was a shortage of housing then rent would be much more expensive. It isn't because there isn't any shortage.

There is, or rather there has been, a shortage of housing for sale because specuvestors have held onto properties for capital appreciation. These guys will let these go once they start costing (or stop making) them money, they wouldn't own them in the first place if they weren't in it for the money.

 

[plaudit]

mmm, either you've made up the 90k, or i've made up the 60k, so I'll just edit the example out above, so the post makes more sense

adding figures into posts always creates tit4tat

My understanding is that there will be 90000 completions this year.

 

[ivuernis]

Looking at the picture, I hope he's not the father, for the kids sake.

Be thankful for your movie star looks then and keep your comments to the topic at hand.

 

[plaudit]

According to [broken link removed] article we had ~52K units built in the first 7 months of this year, so if that continues for the last 5 months of the year we will have 90K units of new stock in total.

 

[whathome]

RTE's reporting of the affordability index:

Rate hikes hitting house buyers' affordability

http://www.rte.ie/business/2006/0928/housing.html

"Assuming that two further rate hikes are expected next month and in December, the repayment situation is due to deteriorate further."

 

[CelloPoint]

It's really kind sentiment like that - at the expense of a young couple that are trying to set themselves up in life that tends to tarnish many of the logical arguements used by the bears.... we all know they look like they could be in a very dangerous place with house prices freezing (or falling) and IR going up, but takling pleasure in their potential problems isn't very becoming.

You know what, we live in a democracay (banana republic it may be), where people are free to make their own decisions. There is no legislation for stupidity I'm afraid, and if someone makes a stupid decision, they've only themselves to blame - when you play ball, you can lose as well as win. And yes, I am free to laugh at stupidity. Of course I feel sorry for them, it's just their incredulous naiveity that warrants a chuckle.

Go and take the moral high ground if you want - you'd be just the kind of person who'd advocate using taxpayers' money to mitigate against their stupidity. Anyway, all this bickering is a side issue for me - we're probably witnessing a crash and I'm sitting in my armchair wanting to see it unfold, and the only way we can see it unfolding is by example. Call it perverse, I don't care. Bring on more examples.

 

[exile]

Of course I feel sorry for them, it's just their incredulous naiveity that warrants a chuckle.

All they did was buy an apartment. They didn't say "Oh, we've bought here because the prices are going up up up, this time next year we'll be millionaires..!"

 

[plaudit]

All they did was buy an apartment. They didn't say "Oh, we've bought here because the prices are going up up up, this time next year we'll be millionaires..!"

At this stage I don't think people like this are actually buying anything, after 3 years how much of the capital will they have paid off?

 

[Gwynston]

Of course I feel sorry for them, it's just their incredulous naiveity that warrants a chuckle.

Well, they've done nothing different to the rest of the "must get on the ladder" lemmings anyway. The scary thing is not their naivety in the current market, but the magazine's apparent incompetence at making such sentiment their current cover article. Do they really think people still swallow all that crap?

It smacks of either desperation or scandalous myth-spreading. Maybe the article was a few weeks old before making it to cover?

 

[delboy159]

You know what, we live in a democracay (banana republic it may be), where people are free to make their own decisions. There is no legislation for stupidity I'm afraid, and if someone makes a stupid decision, they've only themselves to blame - when you play ball, you can lose as well as win. And yes, I am free to laugh at stupidity. Of course I feel sorry for them, it's just their incredulous naiveity that warrants a chuckle.

Go and take the moral high ground if you want - you'd be just the kind of person who'd advocate using taxpayers' money to mitigate against their stupidity. Anyway, all this bickering is a side issue for me - we're probablly witnessing a crash and I'm sitting in my armchair wanting to see it unfold, and the only way we can see it unfolding is by example. Call it perverse, I don't care. Bring on more examples.

Okay -
I'm taking the morale high ground by not laughing at someones potential misfortune...... I took such an act as common manners and normal human nature - not a morally pure act.
Of course you are free to laugh at whatever you wish - but calling people "stupid" when all they were doing was attempting to create a solid future for themsleves and actually work hard and make a better life - is petty.

By the way I'm not "just the kind of person" who advocates government intervention as I believe it has been negative in the past and will be negative in the future if Stamp duty is changed - but I'm not surprised that such a perverse (a term you used to describe yourself - I didn't) intellect would automatically assume that of me without any evidence. I only asked did people think Bertie would attempt to ensure his political survival by tinkering with Stamp - not that I agreed with the idea!

As you can see from posts that followed mine - your sick pleasure was not appreciated by a few posters, not just myself.....

 

[CelloPoint]

Okay -
I'm taking the morale high ground by not laughing at someones potential misfortune...... I took such an act as common manners and normal human nature - not a morally pure act.
Of course you are free to laugh at whatever you wish - but calling people "stupid" when all they were doing was attempting to create a solid future for themsleves and actually work hard and make a better life - is petty.

By the way I'm not "just the kind of person" who advocates government intervention as I believe it has been negative in the past and will be negative in the future if Stamp duty is changed - but I'm not surprised that such a perverse (a term you used to describe yourself - I didn't) intellect would automatically assume that of me without any evidence. I only asked did people think Bertie would attempt to ensure his political survival by tinkering with Stamp - not that I agreed with the idea!

As you can see from posts that followed mine - your sick pleasure was not appreciated by a few posters, not just myself.....

I think a storm in a tea cup over a chuckle is brewing here. Let's not get side-tracked and just get on with the debate.

You have to say it is pretty "stupid" (not for want of a better word) to buy at 2k a month over 30 years when, as was pointed out by somebody, they could probably rent the same place for 1100, not pay legal bills, stamp duty, uncertain interest and still create a "solid future for themselves".

 

[delboy159]

Fair enough - shake hands - I don't want to be branded like the hurling men from my County (Laois).

 

[hmmm]

You have to say it is pretty "stupid" (not for want of a better word) to buy at 2k a month over 30 years when, as was pointed out by somebody, they could probably rent the same place for 1100, not pay legal bills, stamp duty, uncertain interest and still create a "solid future for themselves".

In a couple of years time, I bet people like that will be all over the airwaves demanding the taxpayer bails them out of their financial situation. What's more, I bet the government will cave.

 

[whizzbang]

That's pretty harsh. Granted they have made a mistake which they will no doubt regret in future years. Why take so much pleasure in their future misery? They haven't hurt you any.

its a good point, there is a difference between warning people of risk and rubbing their face in it if they made a wrong decision.

 

[whizzbang]

Affordability has a lot to do with the market (understatement of the year, i know), as once a First time buyer cannot afford a 100% mortgage, over 40 years, there is no further the banks can go,

100 year mortgage anyone?