article will probably still be in it somewhere though.
Think you maybe too late. The housing interests saw the headline and panicked. They have organised a kidnap of a banker with a one million euro ransom and the heralds later editions have had to drop the original headline (it was on the front page wasn't it?)
article will probably still be in it somewhere though.
There is no difference
Prices are going up because prices are going up and everyone believes prices will continue to go up ad infinitum. The economics of buying stack up ONLY if you believe prices are going up. When prices stop going up there will no reason to buy anymore.
Even banks are saying prices will slow to 3% next year , that below inflation and will be a drop in real terms.somebody put it very well here yesterday when they said we are seeing "a deceleration in the rate of acceleration of house prices"
the only price drops have been mere fat-trimming on the high-end houses. I've yet to see evidence of a price drop on a 3-bed semi. I still think houses will continue to rise at least in line with inflation. So the boom is over, but its not a price drop.
So the boom is over, but its not a price drop.
Sure it will. It does also still mean that people considering buying houses to live in will still have considerations. They may wait but their reasoning will not be solely based on financial loss/profit considerations.
[FONT=Arial, Verdana, Arial]Dublin property prices falling by up to 20 per cent[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial]NICK WEBB [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial][/FONT]
Thats where you are wrong my friend.
(phoenix_n : first person to have called a 'crash'.)
Thats where you are wrong my friend.
If everyone was sitting in their own houses then whatever price their house is now will not bother them. But there is so much money tied in investment properties that without capital appreciation they are now in possessoin of a loss-making asset. And when someone wants to sell and no-one wants to buy the only way to entice that buyer is by dropping their price. And those that have made the most of the property market are the ones that can drop their prices the most first thus increasing pressure on 'late comers' to the market.
IMO.
(phoenix_n : first person to have called a 'crash'.)
Absolutely true. But the jagged 'slope of hope' starts with one almightly down-draft.markets don't plummet, they yo-yo up or down to a new plateau..the less liquid, the longer it takes.
not a swallow does a summer make...time left for fools still to be aprted from their money...
.
and this mentality has just got it's first violent hammering courtesy of todays Heraldthe mentallity still exists that property doesn't drop, not in Ireland.
Me, if I come across a nice three bedroomed house that I can afford and which suits my needs, then I should buy it because I can fit a piano in it, or it has a garden that I can work on, or it's 10 minutes from work or whatever, and I plan to stay in it long term, then yes, I have a reason to buy it.
But, what happens if you come across 4 or 5 of these houses that match your criteria? Would you be willing to jump in and buy if the asking price kept getting chipped away on some of these properties?
Would it annoy you to find out later that a new neighbour buys the same house for a good bit less than you?
Michael McDowell stating that he is going to reform Stamp Duty has muddied things further. With capital appreciation out of the picture it might make it worth your while to wait until next December's budget before commiting.
Throw rising interest rates, negative press about the property market into the bag and it turns into a horrible mix. There are more factors in place now to stop FTBs than there are to actually encourage them to buy!
I've yet to see evidence of a price drop on a 3-bed semi.
Normal markets yo-yo, bubble markets don't - they crash. Housing bubbles have occured all over the world on many an occasion. They crash literally over night - never underestimate the speed of sentiment change.no, your way to early on this.
markets don't plummet, they yo-yo up or down to a new plateau..the less liquid, the longer it takes.
If you had of said this to me last June or July, I would have had respect for you. The fact that there is a headline on today's Herald (and negative articles in last weekend's Sindo) shows that it is too late. The plebs are always last to "read all about it".not a swallow does a summer make...time left for fools still to be aprted from their money...
People are indeed stupid, but they're not that stupid (i.e. if people were given even half the facts discussed here on AAM, I'd say nobody would buy in 2006). People are perhaps deceived - and it's getting harder and harder to keep up the deception.the mentallity still exists that property doesn't drop, not in Ireland.
Well I won't be buying just yet - my point is that you cannot and should not assume that everyone has the same motivation in buying and that therefore everyone is affected to the same extent by a Herald headline. People will continue buying in the short to medium term for whatever reason - but it is inherently naive to assume that they will stop buying altogether just because capital appreciation is off the table.
"Those who had been riding the upward wave decide now is the time to get out. Those who thought the increase would be forever find their illusion destroyed abruptly, and they, also, respond to the newly revealed reality by selling or trying to sell. And thus the rule, supported by the experience of centuries: the speculative episode always ends not with a whimper but with a bang."
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