Current public sentiment towards the housing market?

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conor_mc said:
My only conclusion is that a property slump would cause such massive damage to the ISE that these guys have now decided that they could lose more than they gain by trumpeting stocks as a better investment than property....
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I think you're right about that. Out of the twenty companies selected for the ISEQ 20 index over half are focused on property related businesses. A cursory glance shows a lot of banks, construction companies and property/land holding companies.

If the property market tanks then it would not be surprising if the ISE saw a huge amount wiped off it.
 
Afuera said:
If the property market tanks then it would not be surprising if the ISE saw a huge amount wiped off it.
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You can guarantee that and Robbie Kelleher will have to forget all about ISEQ 9,000. It's a very financials heavy index, something like a 44% weighting to the big banks.
 
There's one particular estate in my town where I estimate that out of 80 units, 10 or so are up for sale. Even the mother commented as she was driving by, she's never seen so many houses for sale in one particular estate. It's an estate that has only recently been completed, with some rather ugly duplexes and terraced houses. Construction quality is dubious to say the least.

If I get a chance, I'll take a spin through the estate and take a picture of all the For Sale signs.
 
room305 said:
You can guarantee that and Robbie Kelleher will have to forget all about ISEQ 9,000. It's a very financials heavy index, something like a 44% weighting to the big banks.
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For anyone on an Irish Life pension, I would consider changing down to as low a risk as possible for the next couple of months - given the huge dependency of the Irish Life pension fund on the ISEQ, there is a big property-related risk exposure there.


Anyone whose pension investment option is property-related, would do well to move their money into cash or bonds (at least for a while until things become a bit more stable).
 
Duplex said:
BTW the IMF has issued another warning, [broken link removed]
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The Indo also writes about the same warning from the IMF:
http://www.unison.ie/irish_independent/stories.php3?ca=9&si=1688017&issue_id=14640

I think this sums up the Catch 22 predicament of the ECB perfectly...

"[FONT=Verdana, Arial]The IMF warned central banks to be cautious in raising interest rates, for fear of triggering a slump in house prices which could hit global growth."
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[/FONT][FONT=Verdana, Arial]"The IMF has increased its forecasts for Europe, with growth in the eurozone put at 2.6pc this year and 2pc in 2007. The IMF accepts this strong expansion means interest rates will have to rise further."[/FONT]



Since the ECB have price stability listed as their primary concern, I think ultimately they will have no other options except to let Spain and Ireland be the fall guys for the greater good of Europe.
 
Afuera said:
Since the ECB have price stability listed as their primary concern, I think ultimately they will have no other options except to let Spain and Ireland be the fall guys for the greater good of Europe.
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This, for me, is the root cause of our problems. I remember getting my mortgage in the late 1990's and interest rates have been falling ever since, until recently. I think they came down by about 3.5% over the first few years of my mortgage. There was also a global cut post 9/11 to give 2 fingers to the terrorists IIRC. At the time the republic did not need to cut rates and if anything our central bank may have increased rates to keep things under control.

Now we are between a rock and a hard place, the ECB need to raise rates but we need to maintain our present rates to enable a "soft landing"

Bang, bang, we are dead. We will collapse faster than the WTC on 9/11
 
CelloPoint said:
For anyone on an Irish Life pension, I would consider changing down to as low a risk as possible for the next couple of months - given the huge dependency of the Irish Life pension fund on the ISEQ, there is a big property-related risk exposure there.


Anyone whose pension investment option is property-related, would do well to move their money into cash or bonds (at least for a while until things become a bit more stable).
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Can't: only get one option to change each year. Had a meeting with our pension advisor and voiced my concerns and that I wanted to be anywhere but in my current pension fund which is heavily exposed to teh ISEQ and US stocks at the moment.
Will get a chance to change at Christmas I think.
I hate company pensions!
 
Afuera said:
Since the ECB have price stability listed as their primary concern, I think ultimately they will have no other options except to let Spain and Ireland be the fall guys for the greater good of Europe.
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The goal of the Eurozone economy was always for stable, low inflationary growth. Such a growth model didn't suit our needs and we followed a more aggressive growth pattern (more Boston than Berlin).

When the housing crash drags us into a deep recession, we may actually serve as an example to newer EU member states on how to manage their economies.
 
Raskolnikov said:
There's one particular estate in my town where I estimate that out of 80 units, 10 or so are up for sale. Even the mother commented as she was driving by, she's never seen so many houses for sale in one particular estate. It's an estate that has only recently been completed, with some rather ugly duplexes and terraced houses. Construction quality is dubious to say the least.

If I get a chance, I'll take a spin through the estate and take a picture of all the For Sale signs.
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I was just about to ask about the pictures! Some photographs of housing estates with loads of for sale signs outside them, would really confirm to me that we are indeed witnessing a tiger property crash in real-time.
 
CelloPoint said:
Some photographs of housing estates with loads of for sale signs outside them, would really confirm to me that we are indeed witnessing a tiger property crash in real-time.
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I imagine this will be the way of introduction of choice by the IT when it has to take notice.
 
room305 said:
I had previously said that one big difference between a property meltdown here and in the U.S. was that at least Irish people didn't succumb to the "house-as-an-ATM" mentality like the Americans did. However, I'm becoming less and less convinced of this. I live in an area that wouldn't harbour many of the country's wealthy elite but the number of 06 cars and SUVs around is staggering. I can only assume a lot of them were bought using mortgage "top-ups".

272 mortgage top-ups were taken out every day last year at an average amount of almost €90k. Scary stuff.
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And those top ups are paying for the new cars/holidays etc etc. My parents and their generation (60 year olds upwards) think all these new cars/furnishings are paid by the weekly wage - they really do! They don't believe me when I say that they are all on credit, more increasingly spread out over the 30+ year mortgage. They can't fathom that - they say that they can't be bought on borrowed money, sure if you don't have the money then you can't buy it - Im told them to wake up and smell the coffee and that day of "being able to afford" something is gone. Sure if they want it - they borrow the money to get it.

Im mean seriously - how many people have 60-100k in cash available to buy a new Land Rover, BMW X5 etc etc?????
 
Bedsit said:
Can we start a thread with pictures of For Sale signs, something like the one below?

http://thehousingbubbleblog.com/js_slideshow/
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I'd like to see some well done photos of the same overpriced house and for-sale sign as the seasons pass.

It's not too late to get a shot of the house and sign reflecting some sunshine.

Next up would be a damper looking photo with autumn leaves at the base of the sign.

We could then have a seasonal shot with a sprinkling of snow and some holly suspended from the sign.

And so on..
 
Within our circle of friends and colleagues, we noticed that most of the people currently excited about buying/moving are female while the guys seem to be holding back a bit. It could be simply because Mrs. Whathome's friends/colleagues have more money than mine of course.

Just an observation so feel free to rubbish it :)
 
whathome said:
Within our circle of friends and colleagues, we noticed that most of the people currently excited about buying/moving are female while the guys seem to be holding back a bit. It could be simply because Mrs. Whathome's friends/colleagues have more money than mine of course.

Just an observation so feel free to rubbish it :)
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It was noted in some set of mortgage statistics during the year that the number of single women taking out mortgages had grown disproportionately. I seem to recall it was also commented by the mortgage brokers that women buying were more inclined to have done their homework. I must confess I found it difficult to believe.

I would also add that the people currently excited about buying are those who are buying. It's astonishing how people's attitudes to property and potential crashes therein change when they buy themselves.
 
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