I think that the 'what the hell, we will all go down together' attitude is a lot more prevalent that you'd think. Its a typically Irish ahsureistic attitude and speaks volumes for a folk memory of a society where social cohesion was remarkable by its persistence, through war and famine. Whether it will survive the next decade or so is questionable.
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Ah BJ - Im on to you now!
well it does beg the question - what - if the more vocal cassandras on this thread are correct and the market does start going into meltdown this side of the next election - what exactly will be response of the powers that be - the gov? - apart from doing a passable Wiley Coyote Impression 2 seconds before Boulder Impact!
As for the rest of this lunatic asylum of a country - I can just picture it now
A typically mature response from Fine Gael - "its all FF and PDs fault - we knew this would happen all the time and we warned ya - even tho we didn't na na na na"
Labour and Pat Rabitte will come up with some pointed witty enjoiners - which as per usual they will have completely misjudged the mood of the mob and will harden the general opinion that Rabbitte is just too much of smug smartarse to let into government (even tho IMO he isnt - even if I dont agree with his politics)
Joe Higgins will be out organising the Bolshevik takeover of suburban Dublin
The Greens will say that if we had all built environmentally friendly housing sure there would be no loss in Value of the properties.
Gerry Adams and Sinners will come out with the original solution that property prices will once again start rising if we could only get the Brits out of the North - their standard solution to every issue from Global warming to Drunk driving.
David MCwilliams will have a smile on his face that can only be removed by large doses of laser surgery.
The RTE Sensationaist Squad will spring into Action -
Gerry Ryan interviewing disraught homeowners with particular attention being paid to malfunctioning toilets and overflowing septic tanks
Pat Kenny will of course get the big scoop - interviewing the tearful widow of some poor unfortunate who tops himself when the realization that he was going to be living in Castleknock/neilstown for the rest of his natural life sank in.
Charlie Bird gets beaten up by a crowd of irate Rugger mums wielding Gucci Bags who are protesting outside the Dail.
Joe Duffy has to get an ear transplant every 2 months until finally he pleads insanity , picks up his little book of calm and retreats to an igloo on the South Pole for the forseeable future.
Bono holds a huge concert in the Phoenix Park to Campaign for Debt Relief for Adamstown - the banks generously donate 50 grand each and an umbrella for everybody in the audience emblazoned with "Sucker"
OK OK enough - maybe thats getting a bit surreal - anyway the grownups on the thread will givin out about GOING OFF TOPIC and the like !
G'Night
Kev and Brian are really Ant & Dec and yis are just buzzin' us trying to rise a response out of the more high strung posters on this thread!
well it does beg the question - what - if the more vocal cassandras on this thread are correct and the market does start going into meltdown this side of the next election - what exactly will be response of the powers that be - the gov? - apart from doing a passable Wiley Coyote Impression 2 seconds before Boulder Impact!
As for the rest of this lunatic asylum of a country - I can just picture it now
A typically mature response from Fine Gael - "its all FF and PDs fault - we knew this would happen all the time and we warned ya - even tho we didn't na na na na"
Labour and Pat Rabitte will come up with some pointed witty enjoiners - which as per usual they will have completely misjudged the mood of the mob and will harden the general opinion that Rabbitte is just too much of smug smartarse to let into government (even tho IMO he isnt - even if I dont agree with his politics)
Joe Higgins will be out organising the Bolshevik takeover of suburban Dublin
The Greens will say that if we had all built environmentally friendly housing sure there would be no loss in Value of the properties.
Gerry Adams and Sinners will come out with the original solution that property prices will once again start rising if we could only get the Brits out of the North - their standard solution to every issue from Global warming to Drunk driving.
David MCwilliams will have a smile on his face that can only be removed by large doses of laser surgery.
The RTE Sensationaist Squad will spring into Action -
Gerry Ryan interviewing disraught homeowners with particular attention being paid to malfunctioning toilets and overflowing septic tanks
Pat Kenny will of course get the big scoop - interviewing the tearful widow of some poor unfortunate who tops himself when the realization that he was going to be living in Castleknock/neilstown for the rest of his natural life sank in.
Charlie Bird gets beaten up by a crowd of irate Rugger mums wielding Gucci Bags who are protesting outside the Dail.
Joe Duffy has to get an ear transplant every 2 months until finally he pleads insanity , picks up his little book of calm and retreats to an igloo on the South Pole for the forseeable future.
Bono holds a huge concert in the Phoenix Park to Campaign for Debt Relief for Adamstown - the banks generously donate 50 grand each and an umbrella for everybody in the audience emblazoned with "Sucker"
OK OK enough - maybe thats getting a bit surreal - anyway the grownups on the thread will givin out about GOING OFF TOPIC and the like !
G'Night
T
tententwenty
Guest
And yet we are still not net EU contributors. I wonder how well that sits with Brussels?
T
thewatcher
Guest
I shall now give my prediction 40% - 60% drop within 18 months,the further away from dublin the bigger the drop.
S
SHARP
Guest
There is alot more people in Ireland than just Dublin. Just becuase FTB's or trader uppers in Dublin and the suburbs are paying 400k+ for a box over 35 years, there is the equilivant FTB, trader uppers in the counties of Ireland that are taking out 400k to build 3,000 sq foot monsters.
The reduction in the property prices of houses in itself doesn't really have me losing sleep as I think the houses are completely overpriced - its the knockon effect it will have on jobs. Most people don't mention it enough, but most homes in the past 5 years have been bought with 2 wages/salaries to pay for them. When the job losses do come in the building sector and the resulting business sectors that feed off it - where will people get the money to pay for the 400K mortgage? It doesn't matter if the house is only worth 300-350k - where's the wages to pay the mortgage?
People are living unsustainable lives on 2 wages at the moment - what will happen if there is only 1 wage?
Repossessions, divorce and suicides!
I'm never really convinced by this. I think that you will see the greatest proportional drops in those places that have seen the greatest proportional rises so I think that some parts of Dublin are heading for a shock too.
I agree. Two examples of 3-bed semi's I've been keeping an eye on. If we assume the values of each will revert to a reasonable rental yield of, say, 6%....
Stamullen - 25 miles from Dublin - current asking price €315k, current asking rent €1050 @ 6% yield = €210k or a drop of 33%.
Collinswood D9 - current asking price €550, current asking rent €1350 @ 6% yield = €270k or a drop of 51%
It's a simplistic comparison I admit, but it does show that central area's shouldn't be exempt if the market returns to reasonable, historical norms. In fact, they may be hit quite hard especially when the trader-uppers can't get out of Commuterville because of negative or inadequate equity.
I can't believe these guys - did they hire Sherry Fitz to write that report????
They are mistaking depend to buy houses with demand for houses to live in. Low, stagnant rents = no shortage of housing supply. Speculative element in the property market = massive demand for properties to buy.
Remove the speculative element and POP!, there goes their well-underpinned dependency!
Exactly my thoughts, these guys have some neck
What gets me is they're Stock Brokers.... they should be talking up the stock market, not the property market.
My only conclusion is that a property slump would cause such massive damage to the ISE that these guys have now decided that they could lose more than they gain by trumpeting stocks as a better investment than property....
fatmanknows
Registered User
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- 53
These were the muppets who recently forecast everything is hunky dory for at least the next 15 years..........such vision. The odds are money on that there gonna wish they kept silent on the issue.
I had previously said that one big difference between a property meltdown here and in the U.S. was that at least Irish people didn't succumb to the "house-as-an-ATM" mentality like the Americans did. However, I'm becoming less and less convinced of this. I live in an area that wouldn't harbour many of the country's wealthy elite but the number of 06 cars and SUVs around is staggering. I can only assume a lot of them were bought using mortgage "top-ups".
272 mortgage top-ups were taken out every day last year at an average amount of almost €90k. Scary stuff.
You have to admire NCB's hutspa, these guys have balls of steel. I love the way they trawl through the data to find an argument, any argument that supports world beating indebtedness, falling yields, falling competitiveness, housing over supply and signs that the global credit splurge is ending. You really have to stand back in awe at this type of 'turd polishing'.
BTW the IMF has issued another warning, [broken link removed]
BTW the IMF has issued another warning, [broken link removed]
Has the initial run for the exits started in expensive Terenure ?
Bushy park house now has 7 apartments for sale ([broken link removed]). I think that's a total of 9 this year.
I don't remember seeing any of these apartments going on sale last year. Anyone?
Bushy park house now has 7 apartments for sale ([broken link removed]). I think that's a total of 9 this year.
I don't remember seeing any of these apartments going on sale last year. Anyone?
CelloPoint
Registered User
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- 75
650k for a freehold? Whoever buys one of those is a class A* idiot.
CelloPoint
Registered User
- Messages
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