Current public sentiment towards the housing market?

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Duplex said:
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What is it with these doom mongers?
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And it shouldn't go unnoticed that the ECB Economic and Monetary Affairs Commissioner, Joachim Almunia, appears to be joining the Doom'n'Gloomers in his outlook for Ireland.

http://www.unison.ie/business/stories.php3?ca=80&si=1650178

Mr Almunia said that Ireland was "developing pro-cyclical policies that could create problems in the future".
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For "pro-cyclical" insert your favourite crash term, e.g "Boom'N'Bust", "unsustainable bubble" etc.
 

Has this been seasonaly adjusted...given that (my understanding) is that summer is not the best time to try and sell... so the expectation anyway is that more will come on the market as time passes..

ninsaga
 
DAFT figures are substantially different as they just lump all houses into the index regardless of type. TSB/ESRI adjust the average according to the mix of properties bought. Second, DAFT provide asking prices which may not reflect sale prices. Third, there is a significant time-lag in the ESRI data as it comes from mortgage drawdowns and there might be up to a 3-4 month delay in the figures. Finally, as the daft figures are taken directly from the website, they might include groups of houses sold as one or if there are errors on the site (house listed at price of 1,000,000 where it should be 100,000 - common problem on rightmove in the UK), this might drive up the average
 
So given those potential issues, then what value is there in presenting potentially flawed data.

If you are dependant on correct data to make decisions in you job wouldn't you want to wnsure that it is not flawed to any degree?

This is tabloid type data.

ninsaga
 
ninsaga said:
So given those potential issues, then what value is there in presenting potentially flawed data.

If you are dependant on correct data to make decisions in you job wouldn't you want to wnsure that it is not flawed to any degree?
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Its not flawed in this sense. Every day there are more properties for sale than the previous day . But you can explain.

This is tabloid type data.
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Tis not.

Tis the poor mans Irish Market Base Activity Index and it is not reliant on PROPERTY ECONOMISTS to interpret it for us or on lazy moth eaten crappy so called journalists who will publish the PROPERTY ECONOMISTS press releases in their newspapers without putting a brain between the release and the publication.

Basically its pure and bang up to date uninterpreted and is entirely yours with which to do as you wish.

Please stop shooting the messengers
 
For the figures to be of any real significance you would have to account for Dafts general growth in becoming a popular place for selling properities. Is it taking market share from other selling agents\websites?

So if the figures increase by x% over a week then how much of that increase is down to people using Daft instead of another website etc.
 
SteelBlue05 said:
So if the figures increase by x% over a week then how much of that increase is down to people using Daft instead of another website etc.
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I explained the significance of Daft (rather than Myhome) , had you looked at all . Its here

http://www.askaboutmoney.com/showpost.php?p=238386&postcount=92

and furthermore here

http://www.askaboutmoney.com/showpost.php?p=238506&postcount=121

and is called 2Packs DAFT EFFECT

If the number of properties sold privately on DAFT starts to rise while the number of properties sold by EAs on Daft do not rise commensurately then we most assuredly have a slump on.
 
2Pack said:
If the number of properties sold privately on DAFT starts to rise while the number of properties sold by EAs on Daft do not rise commensurately then we most assuredly have a slump on.
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But how do you account for private sellers and estate agents now changing to Daft from other means of selling (www.propertypartners.ie, www.realestate.ie, www.4salebyowner.ie etc, even agents who now decied to use Daft versus just their own websites).

Daft has become a lot more popular recently for selling, so how do you know an increase in figures is not down to this rise in popularity versus a "slump" as you call it.
 
its daft to read too much into the numbers on daft,the data means nothing in context your providing. lets hear no more of the numbers on daft.waiting for good data/statistics from esri/permanent tsb is only price movement guide i'll accept as there no easy reliable way of gauging all inventory in irish market unlike in other countries.
 



From my second link. !!!





same with propertypartners, EAs enter the data on that .

as for realestate.ie , did you not look at all


SteelBlue05 said:
Daft has become a lot more popular recently for selling, so how do you know an increase in figures is not down to this rise in popularity versus a "slump" as you call it.
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ease of entry into market !
 
2Pack said:


From my second link. !!!
!
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Your second link doesn't explain this at all. Pointless figures, needs to account for more issues than you can see. Market Research is a measurement and there is an scientific approach to market research that you have totally missed.
 

That's a very valuable point.... more & more people are aware of daft.ie.... jeez I remember looking at in before & it looked like a real amaturish set up.

So as it has become more successful then more individuals as well as EA's are using it...it's the simple law of selling.... place the product where people are going to look.

So I again think that your representation there 2Pack is fundamentaly flawed. It even reeks of sensationalist journalism.....

ninsaga
 
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ninsaga said:
That's a very valuable point.... more & more people are aware of daft.ie.... jeez I remember looking at in before & it looked like a real amaturish set up.
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I am standing over my Daft Effect until some 'scientist' empirically proves it wrong.

Off with ye
 
I know all about how 5 days data is a crap base to have for the numbers of houses being sold but I don't have a time machine so I can't get the older data! All I can do is keep recording it from now. If anyone has historical data points I'd put them!
 
Hold on.... if more & more people & EA's use daft.ie are their tool for selling than accoding to your logic, then you will always be right..... so your logic is wrong.....

what if I created a new web site called sellyourhomeprettyfast.ie & I market it correctly then logically there will be an increased throughput... the owners of daft want to get as much up there so that 'they' can get paid also.

Actually now that I think of it, the 'real' data that you need to colect is what are the number of investment properties that are coming on the market. Don't even think tthat can be easily gathered. Most people move house, upgrade etc 2-3 times in a lifetime - I've done it myself. Look around you & I bet you will find half a dozen people you know very quickly who have done that...friends, relatives, co-workers, neighbours & just because people in that catagory have their houses up for sale does not mean that there is a general offload going on and that the market is gonna crash - which is what I think you are trying to convey here.


ninsaga
 
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SteelBlue05 said:
But how do you account for private sellers and estate agents now changing to Daft from other means of selling <.snip> www.4salebyowner.ie etc,
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4sale by owner has 25 properties in total and in Mayo , daft has 14470 .

SteelBlue05 said:
Pointless figures, needs to account for more issues than you can see. Market Research is a measurement and there is an scientific approach to market research that you have totally missed.
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Pointless figures indeed my friend. 25 vs 14470 .

Why did you mention realestate.ie the iavi selling cartels home site? . Do tell.
 

Of course Daft is not an ideal source of inventory data. But there is nothing else, nothing. So nit picking about this one source available to to the public is facile.
 
Duplex said:
Of course Daft is not an ideal source of inventory data. But there is nothing else, nothing. So nit picking about this one source available to to the public is facile.
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I personally think these daft 'stats' should be discussed in another thread, if at all. If you can't see that they might be redundant it devalues any other arguments you put forward
No offense here (and Im definitely bearish about irish property) but there are many factors that would show an inventory increase on daft. Increased popularity being the main one, and in general increased proportion of properties being advertised online and not just EA websites, paper publications and shops.
 
2Pack said:
4sale by owner has 25 properties in total and in Mayo , daft has 14470 .

Pointless figures indeed my friend. 25 vs 14470 .

Why did you mention realestate.ie the iavi selling cartels home site? . Do tell.
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Ok, the figures are "fun" to read, I am just pointing out to people that they are far from reliable.
 
Daft's average natioanl house price (€365k) was WAY OUT from the actual national average of €300k (ESRI) so I wouldn't be relying on them for any indication of where the market may be headed.

 
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