Current public sentiment towards the housing market?

[Remix]

so does anyone know if the property market has "perked up" with buyers or is it just even more sellers piling in

Early days so can only offer some anecdotal I'm afraid.

I viewed two houses in D6W in the past few days. They were the glorified Dublin semi-D type that we are told will always be in huge demand (yeah right!)

The first one I viewed on Saturday. It was fresh on the market - 'bout 4 families looking through it. The asking price was definitely placed below the asking price of similiar properties in the area that've been sitting for a while. No offers on yet.

The second one has been sitting on the market for a couple of months. (I also viewed it when it came on the market first) Some things of note:

1. EA was actively trying to sell the house rather than passively waiting for the bidding to begin
2. The house has been given a major makeover since I first viewed it and still hasn't attracted a bid.
3. Even though the asking price has not been publicly reduced, the EA indicated the vendors will now consider offers below asking price.
4. The house is not priced any higher than what similiar houses were fetching last spring - so not a case of testing out with a big price tag.

 

[coinfused]

Anecdotal evidence from me too:
House viewed in commuter belt (very north Kildare) in early July. AMV was 360, we bid up to 364, vendor refused so we withdrew. Its still on the market as are 2 more house in next estate that went on the market 2 weeks later for 385/ 390. Same type house in same estate went for 409k in early May. As FTB's we are definitely not buying for the moment.

 

[Harrogate]

HPC Veteran

Group: Members
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From: Harrogate.......
Member No.: 336


[broken link removed]
the 335% raise in 10 years is ......around 16% pa compounded!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! [broken link removed]

so hps can rise 16% a year for that long!.....How much have Paddy's wages risen in this time??
The house building rate per million inhabitants is around ten times ours owing to laxer planning regs....
The problem was the introduction of the low Eurozone IRs just as Ireland needed higher IRs..
Brussels had done so much for the Irish they embraced and still embrace everything European including the Euro....
What the hell's going to happen when the German economy picks up speed and IRs rise just as the Irish economy weakens.....The Irish situation has been an accident waiting to happen and the government's done nothing.....

www.housepricecrash.co.uk

 

[gearoidmm]

When we moved back to Thailand in August of 1997, the baht was rapidly losing value. Currency speculators had won. In six months Thailand exhausted its 32-billion dollar foreign exchange reserve. Some traders lost millions when Thailand, in a last stand, forced speculators to default on short positions by limiting access to the baht overseas. This only strengthened those with longer positions, most notably George Sorros. The baht was finally floated and quickly sank. In January of 1998, 56 baht bought a dollar. The currency had lost 50% of its value in less than six months.

Many articles recapping the devaluation still blame Sorros, but the crisis was rooted in crony capitalism and lack of regulation. In 1996 Bangkok Bank of Commerce (BBC) had finally been exposed. Rumors the bank was rotten were rampant. Books had been cooked to hide massive debt. Near the end, in a desperate attempt to re-capitalize, BBC did what banks never do: pay depositors a higher rate than they collect from borrowers. The Thailand government bailed out the BBC in 1996 at the cost of 10% of GNP.

This is an interesting article about the financial crisis in Thailand in the late nineties. It did occur to me recently to ask myself why the banks are now offering interest rates on deposits that are far in excess of the ECB rate and in some cases more than they charge for mortgages. I'm not saying that we are in this kind of a crisis but I just want to throw it out there and ask why this is happening?

 

[room305]

It did occur to me recently to ask myself why the banks are now offering interest rates on deposits that are far in excess of the ECB rate and in some cases more than they charge for mortgages. I'm not saying that we are in this kind of a crisis but I just want to throw it out there and ask why this is happening?

Was this not always the case? Perhaps if they were offering rates in excess of what they charge for personal loans I'd be more worried.

 

[bearishbull]

This is an interesting article about the financial crisis in Thailand in the late nineties. It did occur to me recently to ask myself why the banks are now offering interest rates on deposits that are far in excess of the ECB rate and in some cases more than they charge for mortgages. I'm not saying that we are in this kind of a crisis but I just want to throw it out there and ask why this is happening?

Likes of rabobank offer the higher saving rate as a loss leader a friend who works in treasury told me. Then they try to sell you otehr financial products.

 

[bearishbull]

Early days so can only offer some anecdotal I'm afraid.

I viewed two houses in D6W in the past few days. They were the glorified Dublin semi-D type that we are told will always be in huge demand (yeah right!)

The first one I viewed on Saturday. It was fresh on the market - 'bout 4 families looking through it. The asking price was definitely placed below the asking price of similiar properties in the area that've been sitting for a while. No offers on yet.

The second one has been sitting on the market for a couple of months. (I also viewed it when it came on the market first) Some things of note:

1. EA was actively trying to sell the house rather than passively waiting for the bidding to begin
2. The house has been given a major makeover since I first viewed it and still hasn't attracted a bid.
3. Even though the asking price has not been publicly reduced, the EA indicated the vendors will now consider offers below asking price.
4. The house is not priced any higher than what similiar houses were fetching last spring - so not a case of testing out with a big price tag.

Interesting, any other signs of a slow start to the autumn selling season out there?

 

[whathome]

Interesting, any other signs of a slow start to the autumn selling season out there?

Asking prices are continuing to drop and there's been a huge build up of inventory - that's about it.

Swords - On June 20th there were 74 houses for sale on myhome
Today there are 126 so that's an increase of 52 properties on the market in Swords.

Myhome had 86 homes for sale in Lucan on 19th April 2006,
today there are 185, an increase of 99 properties in one area!

Myhome is solid and stable for stats like this - shows a huge build-up of inventory. Asking prices have only recently started to drop in these areas. Inventory usually dries up over the summer, this year it built up instead and the new supply is creating a glut.

 

[Maine]

Appears the OECD has just completed a massive U turn by suggesting ECB was right to raise rates over the summer compared to its May report - quite a dismal effort even for them
http://www.rte.ie/business/2006/0905/oecd.html

All the strong borrowing data over the summer suggest the housing market will broadly hold thru end of 06.

IMO in April / May a price of 800k really meant a required offer needed of 900k plus. So you could now have a price of 850k and would accept offer of 850k. Looks like a price rise but is actually a fall.

Think builders have figured out though that phase 2 always has to be priced higher to give impression prices are rocketing and FTBs should get in quick

 

[Maine]

Also does anyone have a take on current status of the lettings market - this may hold the key to some sentiment in the wider housing market.

Seen some houses that have been for rent all summer and are still to let in a good area.

 

[gearoidmm]

Also does anyone have a take on current status of the lettings market - this may hold the key to some sentiment in the wider housing market.

Seen some houses that have been for rent all summer and are still to let in a good area.

The number of properties available for rent on DAFT in Dublin has fallen froma a high of about 3000 in late June/early July to about 2400. Probably seasonal due to students looking for accomodation.

 

[Glenbhoy]

Also does anyone have a take on current status of the lettings market - this may hold the key to some sentiment in the wider housing market.

Seen some houses that have been for rent all summer and are still to let in a good area.

I can't say for sure, and I wouldn't want to be accused of being a bull, but whilst there always seems to be a good supply of property in my area, they don't remain on DAFT for too long and rent are up from aprox 1100 this time last year to 1400 this year. I don't know if the landlords get that money, but that's what they're looking for. This is partly why I can't understand the claims that many make that it's much cheaper to rent than buy - possibly i suppose in d6, but up northside it's still better to buy!!
Sorry, that's a 2 bedroom apt I'm talking about.

 

[bearishbull]

dont think the letting market matters much if as reported their are 275k houses are sitting empty.

 

[whathome]

This is partly why I can't understand the claims that many make that it's much cheaper to rent than buy - possibly i suppose in d6, but up northside it's still better to buy!!
Sorry, that's a 2 bedroom apt I'm talking about.

Northside: 2 bed apartment? Looks like it's definitely cheaper not to buy....

[broken link removed]=

Repayments on 365,000 over 35 years = about €1700/month

To rent the same property is only €1150/month
www.daft.ie/217008

So landlord subsidises tenant to the tune of €550/month = €6,600/year!

Far cheaper to rent than to buy

 

[thewatcher]

i finally read all of this thread phew!.....how do you use google cache by the way?....

another report from IIB

http://www.rte.ie/business/2006/0904/property.html?rss

everything is fine and speculators arent the cause of the price rises....how do they get away with these reports?....notice on the right hand side the related links about IIBs profits...

Well well well,just looking at the rte business news on Aertel pg 130 and low and behold but who advertises mortgages for sale on rte.Yes,you've guessed it our old friends IIB homeloans,with 10 pages no less.(i wonder how much that costs)
Surely rte,seen as they fleece most of their revenue from the taxpayers have a duty to report independent news analysis,rather than the vested interest's spin.
Is this any different to brian dobson getting a wrap on the knuckles for giving pr courses to people who he may have to interview/grill at a later date !.
Of course it's not but i'd forgotten i'd clicked my heels some time ago and was back in ireland,the land of the nods and winks.Silly silly me !

 

[liteweight]

dont think the letting market matters much if as reported their are 275k houses are sitting empty.

This figure is taken from the census and has already been widely discussed on this thread. It is not reliable...at least not a true marker of how many properties are 'sale agreed' but not occupied etc. etc. etc.

 

[Harrogate]

Ireland's housing market is far more stretched than than any of these except maybe Hong Kong and Japan's a few years back.
[broken link removed]

 

[whathome]

This figure is taken from the census and has already been widely discussed on this thread. It is not reliable...at least not a true marker of how many properties are 'sale agreed' but not occupied etc. etc. etc.

It was actually proved to be reliable - there's no way you can get away with saying that 275,000 properties are in the "sale agreed" state so they are vacant! Census figures are the most reliable way to assess the vacancy rate.

 

[mortimer33]

Today there are 126 so that's an increase of 52 properties on the market in Swords.

Myhome had 86 homes for sale in Lucan on 19th April 2006,
today there are 185, an increase of 99 properties in one area!

Myhome is solid and stable for stats like this - shows a huge build-up of inventory. Asking prices have only recently started to drop in these areas. Inventory usually dries up over the summer, this year it built up instead and the new supply is creating a glut.

Does anyone know the figures for the same areas 1 year ago? Don't think its accurate to compare June's inventory with September.
In addition it should be considered that these are two of Dublins fastest growing areas. How many extra apartments/houses have been built in the intervening months?

 

[room305]

This figure is taken from the census and has already been widely discussed on this thread. It is not reliable...at least not a true marker of how many properties are 'sale agreed' but not occupied etc. etc. etc.

It's reasonably accurate liteweight, I'd vouch for that. The census enumerators can only class a house as "vacant" if the neighbours say that no-one has been living there for a period of longer than 3 months. Where there are no neighbours to verify this the house must look obviously unlived in (e.g. no curtains, furniture etc.). This isn't a case of 275,000 empty homes but 275,000 vacant homes.

It is the single most startling fact to emerge from this thread and few people have realised its implications.

We are currently building more houses than we need to make up for a supposed deficit of housing stock, yet we have more three years of building stock currently lying idle.