Current public sentiment towards the housing market?

[Duplex]

Could it be that Ireland will be the poster child for the next economic downturn?. The worlds media seem to have latched on to the craziness here and spotted a story, that may serve as a parable for the bursting liquidity bubble globally.

Irish Mania for Homeownership Squeezes Consumers as Rates Rise


``There's a sense of a bubble,'' says Alan Barrett, senior economist at Dublin's Economic and Social Research Institute. ``One in eight workers are in construction. If there's a wobble, it gives you the potential for a big unemployment increase.''

Ireland and Spain are likely to be among the hardest hit as the ECB raises rates, according to a February report by JPMorgan Chase & Co. Spurred by record-low interest rates and falling unemployment, Irish house prices rose 335 percent to an average of 303,247 euros from 1995 to 2005, the fastest growth among 18 countries surveyed by the Paris-based Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development.

Prices in Dublin, as measured by square meter, are now higher than those in London, Zurich and Paris, the OECD says, estimating that Irish housing may be overvalued by as much as 20 percent. The average price of a Dublin home is now 409,000 euros, 56 percent more than outside the city.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=aYcvATm_m374&refer=home

 

[G123]

I think people like this are either delusional or evil.

I didn't hear the interview but this seems a bit strong...

No doubt that Irish property is at a scary level now but would anyone here actually bet money that a house bought now in a reasonable location in Ireland will be worth less in, say, 10 years time?

IMO home buyers are faced with a dilemma. Do you put off buying a home now in the anticipation of a long anticipated price crash or do you take the plunge if you can.

I waas warned off buying my home in Dublin a number of years ago by an 'expert'. Thankfully I didn't listen.

 

[Remix]

Anyone hear the two vested interests spinning on the last word today "price only ever go up" "more price rises are inevitable" "demand is real and not from speculation" etc etc, they are trying to persuade the government not to intervene in market to stop speculation etc. think they are getting worried.
Listen

Interesting they should claim that prices are based on real demand - not speculation - and then come out in force when the government
threatens to move against speculation.

This contradiction makes it sound like even they don't believe what they are saying !

 

[whathome]

It looks like there's more pressure on the ECB to continue raising interest rates.

Article from the International Herald Tribune:
Steel wage demands test ECB on inflation
[broken link removed]

"The last time German steelworkers sought a pay increase as big as the one they are seeking now, 14 years ago, inflation surged and Germany's central bank raised interest rates to the highest level in more than a decade"

...and European producer price inflation accelerated in July:
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aWlKPMvhRkf8&refer=home

 

[Duplex]

I didn't hear the interview but this seems a bit strong...

No doubt that Irish property is at a scary level now but would anyone here actually bet money that a house bought now in a reasonable location in Ireland will be worth less in, say, 10 years time?

IMO home buyers are faced with a dilemma. Do you put off buying a home now in the anticipation of a long anticipated price crash or do you take the plunge if you can.

I waas warned off buying my home in Dublin a number of years ago by an 'expert'. Thankfully I didn't listen.

Potential buyers should undertake their own research and reach informed decisions as to the wisdom or otherwise of buying residential property in Ireland in the current market.

 

[exile]

No point in commenting any further on what the auctioneer said, 'cause no objective opinion can be expected there.

But regarding the banks, rather than outright lying I think they do believe that a soft landing is possible and therefore they should talk this up. They also believe that a very hard and painful landing is possible, but can we honestly expect any bank to adopt that as their official line? They're erring on the side of optimism.

 

[Duplex]

It looks like there's more pressure on the ECB to continue raising interest rates.

Article from the International Herald Tribune:
Steel wage demands test ECB on inflation
[broken link removed]

"The last time German steelworkers sought a pay increase as big as the one they are seeking now, 14 years ago, inflation surged and Germany's central bank raised interest rates to the highest level in more than a decade"

...and European producer price inflation accelerated in July:
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aWlKPMvhRkf8&refer=home

Chinese inflation has taken off after a period of price deflation.

Global economics consultant to Allianz Global Investors Andrew Hunt said: “Over the last couple of months we’ve seen very clear evidence that Chinese export prices are finally rising. Since June and July there has been a significant increase in Chinese export price inflation. We’ve gone from 2 or 3 per cent export price deflation to 6 or 7 per cent annualised rates of export price inflation.”

[broken link removed]

 

[cjh]

I didn't hear the interview but this seems a bit strong...

No doubt that Irish property is at a scary level now but would anyone here actually bet money that a house bought now in a reasonable location in Ireland will be worth less in, say, 10 years time?

IMO home buyers are faced with a dilemma. Do you put off buying a home now in the anticipation of a long anticipated price crash or do you take the plunge if you can.

I waas warned off buying my home in Dublin a number of years ago by an 'expert'. Thankfully I didn't listen.

A house bought 15 years ago in Japan at the peak of their boom is still worth less today than it was then.
Irrational 'booms' are a different economic phenomena to normal appreciation/inflation effects.

 

[room305]

No doubt that Irish property is at a scary level now but would anyone here actually bet money that a house bought now in a reasonable location in Ireland will be worth less in, say, 10 years time?

In Dublin? I'd take that bet. You can pick the house. Anything but the red brick period properties.

IMO home buyers are faced with a dilemma. Do you put off buying a home now in the anticipation of a long anticipated price crash or do you take the plunge if you can.

If you can't afford it don't buy. If you can pay at least 10% upfront, take on a term of less than 30 years and tolerate interest rate increases of +2% over current rates and it is somewhere you will be happy to live for the next ten years, then yes by all means buy.

I'll venture a lot of people buying now aren't buying a "home" per se, they just think it is silly to rent since it is only "dead money".

I waas warned off buying my home in Dublin a number of years ago by an 'expert'. Thankfully I didn't listen.

And right you were then. But remember, the 'experts' only need to be right once.

 

[whizzbang]

I didn't hear the interview but this seems a bit strong...

Fair enough "evil" might be a bit strong, but it does annoy me how they recommend people extract equity from their PPR to buy an investment property when it seems clear that even the best case sceanario it a soft landing where you have small capital appreciation and a rent that no where near covers a mortgage.

Either these guys know that this is a bad idea but recommend people to do it anyway or they refuse to acknowledge the numbers that just don't add up.

 

[phoenix_n]

Found the cache for that, but it's at 300,000....maybe more recent...

Cheers. As far as i remember when it was advertised first it was 320K. Worked out last night was its value really is - 170K. !

 

[cjh]

Cheers. As far as i remember when it was advertised first it was 320K. Worked out last night was its value really is - 170K. !

Offer 150 and see if they bite

 

[G123]

In Dublin? I'd take that bet. You can pick the house. Anything but the red brick period properties

.

Okay then Room 305. Interesting thread below.

You gonna take the plunge?

 

[Square Mile]

Hello All

Do Irish banks and Building Socities still require Indemnity Bonds? I bought my first house in London during the recession of the early 90s when repossession was widespread.

If the LTV was more than a particular amount, the banks insisted on the borrower buying an indemnity bond for approx STG £1000 to insure them against negative equity, repossession etc. Banks had a habit of selling repossessed properties for well below the market price, just to recoup some of the losses. The Indemnity Bond then covered them for the rest.

Most borrowers believed that if they could no longer pay their mortgage that they could give the keys back to the bank and then walk away. This was an incorrect assumption as the indemnity bond that they bought only covered the bank's losses, and that the insurance company, who indemnified the bank, would in turn chase the initial borrower to recoup their losses. There were cases when borrowers were pursued for several years by various insurance companies.

Does this practice exist in Ireland?

SM

 

[room305]

.

Okay then Room 305. Interesting thread below.

You gonna take the plunge?

I am selling my PPR.

 

[BigM]

.

Okay then Room 305. Interesting thread below.

You gonna take the plunge?

As Room305 says, he's already putting his money where his mouth is.

FTB's who've compromised on location in the mad scramble to get onto the bottom rung of the ladder could well see themselves stuck in their poorly-serviced areas for a long time to come with no hope of 'trading up' to the promised land of the 2nd-from-bottom-rung.
If you're in the happy position of living in your 'final home' in your preferred location then whatever the market does won't affect you much either way (except on paper).
If you're not, then selling up, investing the proceeds and renting in your desired area makes perfect sense. Once the mortgage/rent premium has corrected itself you can then think about buying in again. If it doesn't, then the money saved on mortgage interest over the years should be adequate compensation.

 

[Bedsit]

Economy depends on construction (Irish Times Editorial)

Looks like the right hand is not talking or listening to the left!!

[broken link removed]

"... Revenues from capital taxation, including stamp duties, capital gains tax and capital acquisition tax, are growing at four times the rate of total taxation and are responsible for the fact that the latter total grew by almost 13 per cent per annum in the year to August. While likely to remain strong until at least the middle of next year, revenue growth to date disguises the growing vulnerability of the revenue base. ...

... The month will come in which stamp duties and capital gains taxes will either stop growing strongly or stall. A sharp correction in the property market may even send such revenues into decline. The next government may have the misfortune of discovering this in a quite unpleasant manner. ..."

 

[Neffa]

http://www.rte.ie/business/2006/0904/property.html
However, speaking at a Dublin seminar today Tom Foley, CEO of IIB Homeloans, said a number of factors suggest that house price growth is set to ease back through 2007and that the market was set to undergo some big changes.
'We are now entering a transition from a period of explosive growth. I'd be optimistic that we'll see a fairly gentle slowdown to a calmer pace of growth in both lending and in the property market', he said.

Not posted in a bit, just keenly observing how a small number of bears 6-12 months ago seems to be growing rapidly.

I think this kind of IIB stuff is pretty amusing. I'd like to hear a reporter with some courage ask them:

"Well, Mr. Banker. Irish property values relative to incomes are amongst the highest in the world, if not the highest. On an absolute level, the OECD say that prices in Dublin are higher than London, Zurich and Paris - world cities with considerably greater international business importance than Dublin can claim. Meanwhile while household income - the thing we use to pay for rent/mortgage - is rising at about 5% p.a. and household debt is growing at 30% pa while interest rates are rising. Yet you claim that you can only see constant upward growth in prices at beyond the 5% level. Could you explain how this is possible in fundamental terms?"

To which they'd no doubt say demand, but I'd say that is sentiment based rather than using economic fundamentals to justify valuations. On any measure we are now entering unchartered waters. Interesting times ahead.

 

[Persius]

I didn't hear the interviews on the radio yesterday. Most of the positive talk about property prices that I've read talks about continuing upward prices in 2006 and 2007. Even amongst all the vested interests, I can't remember reading anywhere predictions that property prices would continue to rise beyond 2007. Can any one recall recent reports or statements from banks, EAs etc recently (i.e. in last two months) predicting continuous growth in 2008 to 2010?

 

[miju]

so does anyone know if the property market has "perked up" with buyers or is it just even more sellers piling in