Current public sentiment towards the housing market?

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Lumpsum said:
That still seems like fraud to me.....
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Ah rehabilitation he claimed! very hard and expensive to prove these things. although in uk they are cracking down on disability allowance as around 2 million people claim it! in one ex mining town in wales with high unemployment 22% of the population are on disability allowance!
 

Carpal tunnel syndrome allows you to register as hanidicapped in California, if you type a lot maybe you could try something like that.

And, to get back on topic, if the cash was chasing property in the Uk, then it was not in this country. Both capital and the workforce are much freer to move now as a result of the EU and this has a direct effect on the Irish property market.

And another side effect of Europe, you can transfer unemployment benefit (but not unemployment assistance) to another EU15 country (not sure about the newbies) for up to 13 weeks.
 
Minister Noel Ahern has said he thinks property speculators should 'be taxed out of existance' and he will be talking to Minister Cowen about the issue. I can't add the link because it's on the Irish Times premium site.....
 
cjh said:
Minister Noel Ahern has said he thinks property speculators should 'be taxed out of existance' and he will be talking to Minister Cowen about the issue. I can't add the link because it's on the Irish Times premium site.....
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Have to say I am solidly behind that idea.
 
He's talking about raising capital gains tax on investors/speculators. This could potentially precipitate a crash due to a very large number of properties coming on the market at the one time.

It's too late for anything like this - any intervention now will only make the crash longer and harder
 
cjh said:
Minister Noel Ahern has said he thinks property speculators should 'be taxed out of existance' and he will be talking to Minister Cowen about the issue. I can't add the link because it's on the Irish Times premium site.....
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One of the big problems this country had when I came back in 1999 was a lack of rental accommodation. So the taxing of people who hold property for investment purposes, be it for speculative or service provision will have to be approached carefully as one of the sidesteps around Part VI is sale of the property. Remove sale of property as an option there and you'll soon have the capital appreciation speculators out of the equation because an illiquid asset will become even more illiquid.

I'd like to see a sliding time scale which means the sooner you sell the property after purchase incurs a higher CGT, plus the property not having been registered by the PRTB as rented would also incure a higher CGT or otherwise registered as holiday home. This is something to consider for the medium term because any kneejerk reaction will almost definitely tip the balance in the property market as a whole leading to a fall off in tax take from stamp duty, and not necessarily bring it in via CGT. Plus, check out the location of some of those holiday homes (don't let it be a loophole whereby Lucan suddenly becomes the holiday destination numero uno in the country).

But it's not going to happen. Things are far too precipitous now and I don't think any politician wants to be the one directly responsible for tipping the balance right now.
 

Not sure I agree with that last comment. It may bring about the crash rather sooner which could in the medium to long term be a good thing. Logically I don't see why it would make the crash last longer. As it stands, the whole soft landing theory depends on a long drawn out process where salaries rise to a reasonable level vis a vis property values. And I can't see that happening.
 
gearoidmm said:
It's too late for anything like this - any intervention now will only make the crash longer and harder
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They won't actually do it,it just sounds good coming up to an election and will maybe sooth some of the anger on the doorsteps.It's not like property speculation(in effect all the people who've bought a second house in the last few years and kept their original one are property speculators) hasn't been going on for the last few years,where was the "concern" then !
 
Exxxxcellent (in a Monty Burns accent)
 
cjh said:
Minister Noel Ahern has said he thinks property speculators should 'be taxed out of existance' and he will be talking to Minister Cowen about the issue. I can't add the link because it's on the Irish Times premium site.....
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Got the following quotes from the Examiner breaking news:

Mr Ahern said up to 90,000 homes could be built this year but it didn’t seem to be curbing the cost of housing.

“There is something wrong if the prices keep going up,” he said. “Some form of taxation would help, as output alone does not seem to keep prices down.

“There are people buying land in the short term, not to build on it but to sit on it for a few years before selling on to some developer.

“There are people buying houses and apartments off the plans and never taking the keys but selling on the contract.
“I don’t think those people are giving any added value to the whole issue. I personally would like to see those people taxed out of existence.

“People who see the demand move in to make the fast buck. They should be playing the commodities market in the London Stock Exchange on oil or cocoa beans or whatever, rather than with houses.”

I would suggest however that those who purchase off the plans are providing liquidity to the market as well as providing cash flow to the developer. I don't know any developers but I would imagine building a number of houses or apartments requires a lot of cash to be paid upfront, before the revenues start coming in.

If a developer does not have cash to continue a development and no-one wants to buy off the plans, what do you end up with? Developers declaring bankruptcy and half-finished developments that no-one will touch with a barge pole.
 
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My vote is worth the same as any developers. Thankfully we live in a democracy.

While its great to be getting the brown bags from the developers..the people on the doorsteps are the ones that put the TD's into their nice cushy roles..and I bet they are getting feedback on the doorsteps that many voters are not happy curently about house prices.

Happy people don't vote in the same number unhappy people do - I bet a lot of FTB's(or wannabe FTB - all our votes count the same remember!!) are giving the FF'r canvassers a hard time on the door steps.

A tax on investors, like in the German market would go down very well with me to be honest.
 
RiceCakes said:
A tax on investors, like in the German market would go down very well with me to be honest.
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Charlie McCreevy announced an anti-speculative tax in June 2000. Either Noel Ahern has forgotten or he is pretending he had. For some reason - wonder why? - Fianna Fail never went ahead with it.

http://www.finance.gov.ie/viewdoc.asp?fn=/documents/news/june/mcc659.htm


The Minister indicated that he will be bringing the Bill to the Dail next week with a view to having it passed before the Summer recess.
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Funny that, the market then came off the boil from about september 2000 to march 2002 and the specuvestors were kept out by Bacon . Then the builders squealed loudly in the FF tent and McCreevy scrapped Bacon entry conditions and forgot all about exit taxing the feckers as he had planned .

Government statistics in 2000 , 2001 and 2002 clearly show this softness.

http://www.environ.ie/DOEI/doeipub.nsf/0/daac160e1d73c27d80256f0f003dbc05/$FILE/housing_bulletin2000%5B1%5D.pdf (p31 of 73 in 2000)

http://www.environ.ie/DOEI/doeipub.nsf/0/daac160e1d73c27d80256f0f003dbc05/$FILE/hsestats2001%5B1%5D.pdf (p31 of 67 in 2001)

and

http://www.environ.ie/DOEI/doeipub.nsf/0/daac160e1d73c27d80256f0f003dbc05/$FILE/annhsebulletin02.pdf (p34 of 72 in 2002) ( this shows the whole soft landing 2000-2002 period )

And then it took off in late spring 2002 when the swoooosh of cheap post 911 money hit the banks and was lent out to non Baconated specuvestors but as ye can see house prices dec 2000 - dec 2001 were static .

That period in 2000 - 2002 was our soft landing from the 1990s , pretty much all that happened since 2002 was simply insanity, watch it evaporate
 

A question,
Whats the meaning of a structural problem ?
 
sign said:
A question,
Whats the meaning of a structural problem ?
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Pretty much what JPD says above.

Last year America spent 57 percent more than it earned on world markets. That is, imports were 57 percent larger than exports.

In 2005, spending on home construction as a percentage of gross domestic product reached its highest level in more than 50 years. Last year the personal savings rate fell below zero for the first time since 1933.


US manufacturing has lost lost 2.9 million jobs, over the past few years almost 17% of the manufacturing work force. The wipe out is across the board. Not a single manufacturing payroll classification created a single new job.

Communications equipment lost 43% of its workforce. Semiconductors and electronic components lost 37% of its workforce. The workforce in computers and electronic products declined 30%. Electrical equipment and appliances lost 25% of its employees. The workforce in motor vehicles and parts declined 12%. Furniture and related products lost 17% of its jobs. Apparel manufacturers lost almost half of the work force. Employment in textile mills declined 43%. Paper and paper products lost one-fifth of its jobs. The work force in plastics and rubber products declined by 15%. Even manufacturers of beverages and tobacco products experienced a 7% shrinkage in jobs.

U.S. consumers who once saved an average of 8% of their take-home pay now spend about 1% more than they earn. Payments on personal debt for such things as credit cards and student loans once totaled less than 6% of after-tax income. Now, at its highest level in more than a decade, that figure is at nearly 8%, and still rising.

Incomes growth has been static since 2000.

The deficits are trade and current account are crippling.

And their housing bubble is bursting.

The yield curve is inverted, an indicator that has always proceeded a recession in the US.


The US economy is a basket case in short and Ireland is heavily reliant on this basket case. Even if we didn't have our own massive housing bubble we would be in trouble. Interesting times.
 
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