Current public sentiment towards the housing market?

[liteweight]

If the house is sold to an investor then the number of houses to rent stays the same.
If the house is sold to a FTB then the number of people renting falls

- either way the ratio of renters to investment properties stays the same and hence rents shouldn't be impacted.

You can't have it every way i.e. investors rushing to sell but others rushing in to buy what they're off loading!!

If investors begin to sell off then renters might well find themselves unable to get suitable accommodation, especially close to the city! IMO this will lead to an increase in rents.

Not all FTBs are currently renting...some live at home until they buy, in order to save money! Furthermore, of those who do rent, interest rate hikes may well put buying a property out of their reach for the forseeable future.

 

[soma]

If investors begin to sell off then renters might well find themselves unable to get suitable accommodation

You're making the assumption that the investors will have someone to sell to..

 

[BigM]

Of course if prices fall enough, some recent investors may have to hang onto their property. It could be easier to fund the shortfall each month than to realise the loss.

 

[BigM]

You're making the assumption that the investors will have someone to sell to..

You'll always find someone to sell to - if the price is right (for them, not you! )

 

[conor_mc]

You can't have it every way i.e. investors rushing to sell but others rushing in to buy what they're off loading!!

But if somebody sells, then somebody has to be the buyer.

To be honest, it'll be horses for courses if it all comes crashing down anyway.

Should we hit negative equity territory, some investors will be able to suffer a loss of tens of thousands by selling up. Others may not be able to do so and will have to subsidise their mortgage to the tune of a few hundred a month because they can't find the cash to clear the mortgage.

 

[bearishbull]

interesting point, but you're forgetting the large-scale emigration we had back then, which kept the unemployment rate lower than it could have been.
And also, as another poster mentioned, a state job did offer considerable protection. Out in the private sector, like today, the same job security wasn't there. If you lost your job, you had to compete with the 10% of unemployed people + the 65,000 young people leaving school every year also looking for a job.
Materially we're far better off now, but there have been huge trade-offs - high property prices, longer commutes, 2 parents working (not out of choice).
But would you really want to go back to the 80's?

I doubt things were really as bad as people claim, there was lots of cash around as evidenced by off shore accounts,bogus non resident accounts etc, a lot on dole did work for cash in hand and lots of cash was sent home from those working in uk usa etc. There was always the option of headin hundred miles across the water to uk where economy was very strong.We havent known real tough times in this country in many many decades.

 

[BigM]

I doubt things were really as bad as people claim, there was lots of cash around as evidenced by off shore accounts,bogus non resident accounts etc, a lot on dole did work for cash in hand and lots of cash was sent home from those working in uk usa etc. There was always the option of headin hundred miles across the water to uk where economy was very strong.We havent known real tough times in this country in many many decades.

You're wrong there. things were just as bad as people claim. I'm one of the youngest in my family and I saw how hard it was for my older brothers and sisters to get anywhere at all. And all the while paying huge taxes? There was a lot of cash in a very small number of pockets but mostly there were just lots of empty pockets.

 

[liteweight]

You're making the assumption that the investors will have someone to sell to..

No, not making any assumptions...was simply replying to another poster who suggested what might happen if people sell!!

 

[bearishbull]

Does anyone think this thread has become too big? why not restart the thread as a new thread "current sentiment 2 -september 2006" and start it on friday 1st september. Its a bit offputting for someone who hasnt been reading the thread yet or havent read it in long while , lots of stuff gets repeated so the new thread would not be lacking in pertinent info after a few dozen posts and old thread can be referenced.

 

[dontaskme]

I doubt things were really as bad as people claim, there was lots of cash around as evidenced by off shore accounts,bogus non resident accounts etc, a lot on dole did work for cash in hand and lots of cash was sent home from those working in uk usa etc. There was always the option of headin hundred miles across the water to uk where economy was very strong.We havent known real tough times in this country in many many decades.

[broken link removed]

From 1981 to 1988 housing completions declined every year from almost 30,000 to under 20,000 (and how many of those were in Tallaght?). That's a lot of unemployed or underemployed plasterers, carpenters. bricklayers etc.

If there was as much cash as you say, why was it not chasing property?

 

[darex]

You can't have it every way i.e. investors rushing to sell but others rushing in to buy what they're off loading!!

If investors begin to sell off then renters might well find themselves unable to get suitable accommodation, especially close to the city! IMO this will lead to an increase in rents.

If investors sell off then they have to sell to someone!!!!

That person is either a renter or an owner or another investor. In all cases the ratio of investment property to renters remains constant.

 

[a_greenspan]

I can't believe some people are actually looking back to the 80's as an era they would prefer compared to now - are you mad??! I was only a boy but I distinctly remember a whole air of depression over the country. If you want to experience the 80's again, move to Romania or Poland - mass emigration, unemployment running at 20%. Ok, so you won't get the complete experience as mortgage rates in Romania and Poland are quite low (higher than eurozone but still low). So to get the complete experience, go into your bank in Romania and tell them that you'd like them to raise their interest rates to 20%. Then you will be living in the 80's

 

[liteweight]

If investors sell off then they have to sell to someone!!!!

That person is either a renter or an owner or another investor. In all cases the ratio of investment property to renters remains constant.

Oops! I meant to say you can't have investors selling and other investors rushing in to buy what they are off loading!

 

[bearishbull]

[broken link removed]

From 1981 to 1988 housing completions declined every year from almost 30,000 to under 20,000 (and how many of those were in Tallaght?). That's a lot of unemployed or underemployed plasterers, carpenters. bricklayers etc.

If there was as much cash as you say, why was it not chasing property?

It was probably chasing property in uk! and then a lot probably got burned in the crash in early 90's! Many smart people were buying property in the 80's, i know of several, the rent paid the mortgage then.
not saying things were great but just that they werent as bad as many commentators would have you beleive. you'd think it was a third world country here in the eighties the way some middle class "couldnt get a great/perfect job so it was a disaster" commentators would have you beleive.

 

[Guest126]

Ireland 80s v Romania/Poland

Except that Romania/Poland of today probably have far superior infrastructure (in urban centres) than Ireland has in 2006?

 

[Lumpsum]

I can't believe some people are actually looking back to the 80's as an era they would prefer compared to now - are you mad??! I was only a boy but I distinctly remember a whole air of depression over the country. If you want to experience the 80's again, move to Romania or Poland - mass emigration, unemployment running at 20%. Ok, so you won't get the complete experience as mortgage rates in Romania and Poland are quite low (higher than eurozone but still low). So to get the complete experience, go into your bank in Romania and tell them that you'd like them to raise their interest rates to 20%. Then you will be living in the 80's

Wad it really like that? I was a bit more than a boy and had a great 80s. All I had was a job, but back then that was all you needed to feel reasonably prosperous. 20 per cent unemployment meant 80 per cent had jobs (and whisper it, but some of those 20 per cent were earning a few bob on the side too). A job in your 20s meant you could certainly afford a house of some sort - not like now. Helped dispel any "air of depression".

No flames! I'm not dismissing the unemployment, the misery of emigration. I remember the sadness and anger among my cohort of friends over being split up by involuntary emigration, and the longing of those abroad to get home. The good news is that most who wanted to were able to come home to the more prosperous 90s.

Being , er, older, I don't like the blanket dismissal of the 80s as being the period when Ireland resembled Soviet Russia (or modern Russia). Sure the economic stats looked at now were pretty shocking, but many (most?) people were able to work and build careers and lives.

All of which is way off topic. In response to an earlier poster, most people were not "chasing property" back then. A ppr was plenty to be getting along with....

 

[bearishbull]

Ireland 80s v Romania/Poland

Except that Romania/Poland of today probably have far superior infrastructure (in urban centres) than Ireland has in 2006?

I have actually considered going on the social welfare here for a year or two and heading off to live in one of these eastern european cities without having to work. the social welfare here pays more(8500euro) than average salary in many of these places.

 

[Firefly]

Things were really that bad, I was there but couldn't afford to buy the T shirt! There was a photo in the Irish Times in 1986 of the 1st Abrakedabra opening on Baggott St with a queue of about 15 men and women in suits applying for positions. I remember ads in the paper for handymen "no job too small"...know it's off topic, but this is a banana republic and the sooner people recognise this the better!

 

[CelloPoint]

I have actually considered going on the social welfare here for a year or two and heading off to live in one of these eastern european cities without having to work. the social welfare here pays more(8500euro) than average salary in many of these places.

That would be fraud. You must be resident in Ireland. You can however go on a holiday for about 2 weeks without social welfare minding.

How will you sign on each month if you're living abroad? You'd have to travel home each month to present yourself.

I think athletes can go on the dole and spend extended periods of time abroad (once they are approved). So unless you're an athlete, forget about it.

 

[bearishbull]

That would be fraud. You must be resident in Ireland. You can however go on a holiday for about 2 weeks without social welfare minding.

How will you sign on each month if you're living abroad? You'd have to travel home each month to present yourself.

I think athletes can go on the dole and spend extended periods of time abroad (once they are approved). So unless you're an athlete, forget about it.

I didnt say it was unemployment assistance, i know people claiming disability benefit for "depression" and "anxiety" who havent been asked to attended the social welfare or a state doctor for years. Theres no way to prove someone who claims to be depressed/anxious isnt actually depressed. one friend had panic attacks from experimenting with illegal substances,he went on disability benefit and took a year off from college, he was fine after a few months and went travelling with some savings and the disability allowance.