Current public sentiment towards the housing market?

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room305 said:
I meant a pause after they hit 3.5%.
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Yes - I'd say they will pause at 3.5% - I was always doubtful about any rises after that. The trek from 2.0% to 3.5% is more than enough to burst the housing bubble. Even pausing at 3.0% would kill it IMO.
 
Whathome...the apartment you posted is NOT in Ballsbridge! They are Dublin 2 I'd say but close to D4. Pembroke Square must be the name of the Apartment Complex (can't remember now but I've been in them)...it's not THE Pembroke Square.

I'd also be wary of the measurement given to be honest. The apartments I saw had a living room which was narrow at one end, which would be awkward to furnish. Even if they sell at 600K...believe me they are making a killing!;)
 
liteweight said:
Whathome...the apartment you posted is NOT in Ballsbridge! They are Dublin 2 I'd say but close to D4. Pembroke Square must be the name of the Apartment Complex (can't remember now but I've been in them)...it's not THE Pembroke Square.

I'd also be wary of the measurement given to be honest. The apartments I saw had a living room which was narrow at one end, which would be awkward to furnish. Even if they sell at 600K...believe me they are making a killing!;)
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This block is on the D4 side of the canal (just about)
 
liteweight said:
Whathome...the apartment you posted is NOT in Ballsbridge!
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Well you can't say that The Sweepstakes is not in Ballsbridge...

Price Drop from €1.9 million to €1.75 million.

Nice write-up in the business post in March listing 1.9M:
[broken link removed]

Now reduced to 1.75M
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The key thing about these asking price drops is not whether they were overpriced to begin with - which some of them may have been. It's that falling asking prices on this scale is a recent phenomenon. A rising market used to result in over-priced property selling eventually. Not any more - hence price drops.
 
room305 said:
I meant a pause after they hit 3.5%. It's not impossible.
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Absolutely, I could not see any possibility of a pause at 3.5% (seeing it beyond 4% ) ..and that was last month. Now I do.
The US economy is tanking faster than anyone expected and although inflation risks remain, given a choice I'm betting the Fed will choose inflation over recession (initially at least). It will be hard for the ECB to keep raising when the Fed is cutting because the dollar will fall so sharply against the euro that it will severely hurt exports. If they can avoid it, I would say they will not cut rates but they may pause.
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I would add that the demand for commodities and oil will be affected by a marginal slowdown in the US, a 1% drop in US GDP (excluding housing) could knock €10 off the barrel of oil and EU inflation would be affected immediately.

As all commodites bar steel are $ denominated the inflation pressures in the core EU could drop off rapidly as these commodity prices started to fall back.

In essence, and at a constant exchange rate with no dollar tanking factor the ECB could spot a get out of jail card incoming.

Watch commodity futures like a hawk , particularly when lots of them expire at the end of september.

Alternatively, if Bernanke turns hawkish and start raising rates again leading the US into a recession (or even slowed growth), the price of commodities will tumble and this will give the ECB reason to pause.
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No. Ben is not that secure in his job and there are US elections coming up in November . He will IMO stop increasing the base rate and may even nudge it down a netch in the next month.....0.25% only .


I believe commodity futures will be heading south any day now .

A snifter of what is a complex situation to be see here

http://news.tradingcharts.com/futures/5/9/82569995.html
 
whathome said:
It's that falling asking prices on this scale is a recent phenomenon.
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I think a take-away point is this. In previous years, the vendors would simply have held out and avoided price drops by waiting for the 'selling season' of september.

The fact that a few of them (and we must avoid jumping the gun, the amount of price drops is still relatively low) have dropped their asking prices rather than 'risk' the selling season, could be a telling lack of confidence in the future market by some parties IMO.
 
Again I reiterate that the basic problem in Ireland is overlending to construction and a commensurate massive oversupply together with a mind set amongst those who are under 35 and who have never experienced a recession that you cannot lose on property :D .

Muppetry reinforced by Muppetry and underpinned by Muppetry if you will.

We have too many houses in many areas and the slowdown and price drops will occur because we finally REALISE this fact .

External factors will only HELP us to realise to this, ECB , US Economy or whatever .

But Reality can be such a horrible thing :D
 
I think the point was made before, but all this talk of stock markets and futures trading are only secondary issues. The primary factors affecting Irish property prices include a mixture of: oversupply, wage inflation relative to house inflation, demographics, market sentiment and poor value-for-money when one considers similar sized population centres/economies elsewhere.

Granted, the interest rate is an important external factor, but all external factors aside, I have no doubt there's enough internal pressure within Ireland to blow the gasket (there is no safety valve).
 
2Pack said:
No. Ben is not that secure in his job and there are US elections coming up in November . He will IMO stop increasing the base rate and may even nudge it down a netch in the next month.....0.25% only .
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There is absolutely no chance of Ben Bernanke cutting interest rates next month. He has set himself up as an inflation fighter and in contrast to his predescessor, he has suggested that he has inflation targets. Core inflation in the US is way ahead of the target and does not look likely to fall in the next few months. Any credibility he had as an inflation fighter would be destroyed if he cut rates next month and would precipitate a crash in the value of the dollar. He would have to be crazy to reduce rates.

Look at the Australian example. The housing market there is in the doldrums for the past year and despite that, the Aussie central bank raised interest rates recently to fight inflation knowing that it will cause more trouble.
 
soma said:
I think a take-away point is this. In previous years, the vendors would simply have held out and avoided price drops by waiting for the 'selling season' of september.

The fact that a few of them (and we must avoid jumping the gun, the amount of price drops is still relatively low) have dropped their asking prices rather than 'risk' the selling season, could be a telling lack of confidence in the future market by some parties IMO.
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Good point; it does seem odd (in an Irish context that is) that sellers should be cutting asking prices so close to the 'selling season'. It's also worth noting that asking prices at the zenith of the boom were an invitation to treat, the expected bidding war would often drive the eventual sales price beyond the initial asking price. The change in sentiment in the market between spring and late summer is marked, to say the least.
 
soma said:
The fact that a few of them (and we must avoid jumping the gun, the amount of price drops is still relatively low) have dropped their asking prices rather than 'risk' the selling season, could be a telling lack of confidence in the future market by some parties IMO.
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Agreed. when I mentioned to 2 EA relatives of mine that I was planning on selling my invest property I was expecting the usual 'are you mad? don't ever sell property' response. Actual response: "I think you're right. Its money is made, you may as well take it now"
 
Sweepstakes is definitely Ballsbridge!

I don't think these price drops are a recent phenomena...in D4 at any rate. Estate Agents come in and say the place is worth a fortune and vendors believe them!! In some cases they got the price, in others, the price was dropped. Has been going on ever since I moved here 20 years ago.

I think the best place to look for evidence of price drops is in the new builds, when they are being sold on. Purchasers who bought at an inflated price cannot afford to drop price, so real evidence would be to see them being forced into it. A vendor who has lived in his property/let it for some years can afford to drop the price if he/she has other plans for the money!

A family friend recently sold his investment properties. His attitute was 'put it out there and see if it flies', he dropped his price on some properties but sold others at the inflated price!! The point is, the prices were inflated to begin with and he knew it so had no problem dropping it at a later date.
 
gearoidmm said:
There is absolutely no chance of Ben Bernanke cutting interest rates next month. He has set himself up as an inflation fighter and in contrast to his predescessor, he has suggested that he has inflation targets. Core inflation in the US is way ahead of the target and does not look likely to fall in the next few months. Any credibility he had as an inflation fighter would be destroyed if he cut rates next month and would precipitate a crash in the value of the dollar. He would have to be crazy to reduce rates.

Look at the Australian example. The housing market there is in the doldrums for the past year and despite that, the Aussie central bank raised interest rates recently to fight inflation knowing that it will cause more trouble.
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If the Fed cuts possibly next year, the market will push long term rates higher upping the cost of long term debt (fixed rate mortgages). A weaker dollar might ease the pain of the twin deficits but it would push up the cost of imports. The Fed is in a pickle.
 
gearoidmm said:
There is absolutely no chance of Ben Bernanke cutting interest rates next month. He has set himself up as an inflation fighter and in contrast to his predescessor, he has suggested that he has inflation targets. Core inflation in the US is way ahead of the target and does not look likely to fall in the next few months. Any credibility he had as an inflation fighter would be destroyed if he cut rates next month and would precipitate a crash in the value of the dollar. He would have to be crazy to reduce rates.
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You are dreaming if you think Bernanke is an inflation fighter. Jeffrey Lacker yes, but not Bernanke. I doubt he will cut rates next month but another month where the core rate comes in below expectations will give him reason to continue to pause. Once economic indicators point to a further slowing of the US economy he will have all the ammo he needs to start cutting rates.

Someone who has previously said "people know that inflation erodes the real value of the government's debt and, therefore, that it is in the interest of the government to create some inflation" does not sound like much of an inflation fighter to me.

Like Greenspan, he has talked a lot about fighting inflation but his real fear is deflation.
 
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