Current public sentiment towards the housing market?

[tententwenty]

Its more to do with the psyche in those countries. Traditionally the US has been the mecca for those looking for a better life, and this still continues to be the case even today.

You'd be surprised how few people are hypnotised by the "American dream". In the Philippines for example, a worker is as likely to go to Dubai or Singapore for a job as the US. Or alternately follow the oil companies. They go where the work is.

The best brains from these countries still go to the US where they are offered the best jobs and the highest salaries. Can you honestly say that there is any serious R&D going on in the Irish subsidaries of US multinationals here. The IT consultants that you talk about are mostly people who have qualified from second tier institutions and not from the premiere colleges.

Have you got one single statistic to back that rather sweeping and extravagant claim up?

 

[tententwenty]

But they may act to prevent dramatic house price falls in nominal terms, by proping up the rental market. Honestly I think the demographics will result in static prices (on average) in nominal terms over the next 10 or so years. I do think prices will fall somewhat in less desirable areas. And I think they could still rise somewhat in prime areas.

Ah no now you're way off track There are over 275,000 houses sitting empty around the country. Thats a whole heap of renters, and that excludes the fact that the rental market is oversaturated with places to stay at the moment.

Rental prices and mortgage prices are generally completely unrelated. Just because the landlord needs to cover his mortgage doesn't mean he will ever find tenants willing (or able) to pay for it for him. Rent doesn't even cover the interest alone on a lot of mortgages.

 

[Bedsit]

Just look at the number of H1B visas and the proportion of them granted to Asian countries. I am in academia and most of the applications we get for postgraduate studies are from institutions that we would classify as second tier colleges. Graduates entering any of the premiere instutions are guaranteed a ticket to the US the day they start their course.

Take a look at the followng links:

[broken link removed]
[broken link removed]

Have you got one single statistic to back that rather sweeping and extravagant claim up?

 

[CelloPoint]

Anti - Flipping measures in the next budget?
Finna Fail specialise in closing the door after the horse has bolted.

Spot on.

 

[thewatcher]

Anti - Flipping measures in the next budget?
Finna Fail specialise in closing the door after the horse has bolted.

the horse is halfway down the port tunnel about to go for a swim !.

 

[Remix]

Speaking at the publication of new figures showing that housing output continues to rise at record levels, the Minister said he would be speaking to the Minister for Finance about the possibility of introducing measures in the next Budget to curb property speculation.

http://www.rte.ie/business/2006/0823/houses.html

 

[whathome]

Government measures to squeeze out speculation...?

RTE TV news at 1 interviewed Noel Ahern today - he said that he would be working with Dept of Finance on introducing measures to "squeeze out speculators", emphasised that property should be for genuine buyers not just people trying to profit on a growing market.

I think this is well overdue - should allow genuine first time buyers to have a better chance of buying new builds.

 

[shanegl]

From today's Indo......

Aren't the number of new builds started this year way down on previous years?

 

[Howitzer]

Aren't the number of new builds started this year way down on previous years?

Where did you hear that? They're way up.

Seriously, where did you hear that? EA, bank manager, broker?

 

[shanegl]

It was widely reported in the media in the last couple of months. I'm talking about new builds started, not completed.

 

[Guest107]

Stat Note

There are 3 significant stats

1. Planning applications
2. Notified Housing Starts
3. Notified Completions

1 and 2 are down

but not 3 ...yet.

As 1 and 2 are down 3 must drop next year.

 

[Howitzer]

It was widely reported in the media in the last couple of months. I'm talking about new builds started, not completed.

The article you quoted referred to new builds completed this year.

 

[tententwenty]

Just look at the number of H1B visas and the proportion of them granted to Asian countries. I am in academia and most of the applications we get for postgraduate studies are from institutions that we would classify as second tier colleges. Graduates entering any of the premiere instutions are guaranteed a ticket to the US the day they start their course.

Take a look at the followng links:

The two articles you point to relate to Indians in America. They don't have a bearing on the quality of students coming to Ireland. And again, you refer only to India, whih is but one source of immigrant workers in Ireland.

Unless you are the Minister responsible for accepting postgraduate students to Irish courses, or have a paper released by same, you aren't in a position to comment on the overall quality of foreign students arriving in Ireland from poor countries. And in any case, we aren't talking about students here.

And to wrap it up, as it becomes less germane to the discussion, the average wage in India is 5 to 10 bucks a week. Even on minimum wage here, an Indian can go back home and live like a king after a few years working.

Even assuming what you say is true, you don't need to get a job in the civil service if you don't need to work again. And if you do feel the need to work again, you have more than enough capital to open your own business, whatever that may be.

 

[shanegl]

The article you quoted referred to new builds completed this year.

Yes but when were these started? I'm saying that the figure is going to drop in the future.

 

[whathome]

The two articles you point to relate to Indians in America. They don't have a bearing on the quality of students coming to Ireland. And again, you refer only to India, whih is but one source of immigrant workers in Ireland.

Unless you are the Minister responsible for accepting postgraduate students to Irish courses, or have a paper released by same, you aren't in a position to comment on the overall quality of foreign students arriving in Ireland from poor countries. And in any case, we aren't talking about students here.

And to wrap it up, as it becomes less germane to the discussion, the average wage in India is 5 to 10 bucks a week. Even on minimum wage here, an Indian can go back home and live like a king after a few years working.

Even assuming what you say is true, you don't need to get a job in the civil service if you don't need to work again. And if you do feel the need to work again, you have more than enough capital to open your own business, whatever that may be.

There are a few posters on this thread that go on-and-on-and-on with a private mini-discussion - why don't you PM each other?

 

[whizzbang]

Expect this loophole to be closed off in the next budget.

Any suggestions on how they would go about this?

Higher CGT for properties sold within 5 years
"investor tax" on mortgate repayments
Make investors have to prove property is being rented out, penalty if it is not.
Offer a reward for any tennant who rats out a non registered landlord.

Not sure how workable these are, any other ideas?

maybe they will just finally do the recommendations in the Bacon report?

 

[Howitzer]

Any suggestions on how they would go about this?

Higher CGT for properties sold within 5 years
"investor tax" on mortgate repayments
Make investors have to prove property is being rented out, penalty if it is not.
Offer a reward for any tennant who rats out a non registered landlord.

Not sure how workable these are, any other ideas?

maybe they will just finally do the recommendations in the Bacon report?

That sounds like a good idea for a new thread ......

 

[Bedsit]

There are a few posters on this thread that go on-and-on-and-on with a private mini-discussion - why don't you PM each other?

True, but this discussion has a bearing on the overall market. The bottom line being that most of these Non-EU nationals will not want to go back to their countries of origin. They are here to stay and are buying houses in large numbers. However once things go pear shaped (as most of us think they will) we will have a problem on our hands.

 

[phoenix_n]

Agreed.

I believe it would have achieved that price in the silly season earlier this year. Or thereabouts anyway. The price would certainly have been regarded as expected for the particular street the property is located on. Again i am playing no credence to such a small sample of data but what it did say to me was that for this one particular property that they had currently no offers (or maybe they had) and that they were willing to negotiate (again maybe i don't know).

I would think that if a sample of 20 properties was taken around Dublin i believe we would get similar responses. But that is of course all pie in the sky until the research is actually carried out.

If you like, pick a property that you are fammilar with, email the EA and inquire whether the vendor would be willing to negotiate. You are not leading on any parties. And then perhaps this thread can change from current sentiment to actual facts as they pertain on the ground.

Phoenix_n - is the price of 750k a new threshold for that type of house in the area or is it at the silly April/May values or is it slightly below the silly figures?

Just to put the house and the price in context?

 

[Guest107]

Actually 1 and 2 are not down, only 1 is.

Table 3

New Commencements Notices:


Housing Commencements (2 in my last post) are static nationally .

http://www.environ.ie/DOEI/DOEIPub.nsf/6fb57b90102ce64c80256d12003a7a0d/9699f58bcf810cba802571d3004014df?OpenDocument

County 6 months 2005 6 months 2006 % change
TOTAL 39,804 40,816 2.5%

And way up in the outer Pale out the back of Ballivor, ouch !

Kildare/Laois/Offaly/Longford