W
wolfie
Guest
House rental prices have always been a fair ratio to wages.Mortgage payments are not.
- Status
Because borrowings are growing at 30% and it will take time for this to slow down meantime banks will make alot of profit. This massive momentum will carry growth in house prices into 2007 at a national level.
Only if ECB rates get to 3.5% by Cmas will the going get tougher and if they stop there it could stretch the growth all the way to end 2007 particulary with SSIA support.
Irish banks know that they can change the rules and make credit easier to get, find new buyers and hence stretch the game further into the future. In US at peak of their recent boom you did not even have top pay all the interest on IO mortgages as some of the interest was deferred and added to your mortgage for the first few years. So there are a few tricks left in the bag yet.
W
wolfie
Guest
[broken link removed]
CelloPoint
Registered User
- Messages
- 75
The momentum aspect is a very good point.
I don't think there's much doubt that the ECB base rate will hit 3.5% by December (considering futures trading). At the moment, it's a question of whether the ECB base rate will go even higher.
You're right. People are so naive with regards banks in this country. I know people who talk of their bank manager as if he's their best mate, but I adopt a much more arms-length approach in dealing with banks. You cannot afford to get sucked into the glitz and marketing-speak behind the various 'offers' made available (in a very complicated fashion) by banks today.
W
wolfie
Guest
[broken link removed]
bearishbull
Registered User
- Messages
- 207
Actually Norwegian property isnt expensive relative to Norwegian wages or Irish house prices, they seem to be less exuberantthere as illustrated in these articles.
http://business.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,8209-2281123,00.html
http://money.guardian.co.uk/weekly/story/0,,1778822,00.html
Can you imagine how irish people would squander such a windfall! Even with all their REAL wealth the norwegians dont get carried away with house price speculation and materialism to anywhere near the extent the Irish do.
Are you sure about this liteweight?
A friend of mine bought through Hooke and Macdonald last year and they told her that she could arrange her mortgage with their sister company - Irish Mortgage Corporation (IMC).
...and now that they are losing Irish buyers, they are trying to find a new story!
"Many first time buyers are foreign, says study"
http://www.rte.ie/news/2006/0823/housing.html
They did the same thing last year to get younger buyers to join the pyramid
From October 2005: "New research reveals First-Time Buyers begin property search in early twenties"
[broken link removed]
At least they mentioned that the ESRI/PTSB figures were months out of date:
"A spokesman said the full impact of recent interest rate rises may still not be feeding through to the figures, which reflect the drawing down of mortgage loans, not their approval. "It may be a couple of months yet before the full impact of the most recent rate rises show up in the figures," he said."
P
phoenix_n
Guest
Heard on RTE news that some tabloid had a headline about 'irish property crash' or something (not that i would give credence to it). Did anyone catch the name of the 'newspaper' ?
"The average price of a house nationally in July was €303,274, €25,000 more than at the end of last year. In Dublin, the average home now costs €408,959. This time last year, it was just over €350,000.
Prices have continued to rise this year despite four quarter-point increases in interest rates, most recently early this month. The European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to increase rates by a further half percentage point before the end of the year. (snip)
A spokesman said the full impact of recent interest rate rises may still not be feeding through to the figures, which reflect the drawing down of mortgage loans, not their approval. "It may be a couple of months yet before the full impact of the most recent rate rises show up in the figures," he said.
Homeowners with a mortgage of €250,000 over 25 years are now paying an extra €134 in monthly repayments compared to last December (snip) Meath, Kildare, Wicklow and Louth has seen the most dramatic rise in prices over the past year, jumping by 18.6 per cent - or more than four times faster than in the previous year. (todays I.T. frontpage)
It looks as if - regardless of the sense of the unreality of property on this forum - potential purchasers just think "Well - what's an extra hundred odd euro a month" and keep on firing on all cylinders!!
Prices have continued to rise this year despite four quarter-point increases in interest rates, most recently early this month. The European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to increase rates by a further half percentage point before the end of the year. (snip)
A spokesman said the full impact of recent interest rate rises may still not be feeding through to the figures, which reflect the drawing down of mortgage loans, not their approval. "It may be a couple of months yet before the full impact of the most recent rate rises show up in the figures," he said.
Homeowners with a mortgage of €250,000 over 25 years are now paying an extra €134 in monthly repayments compared to last December (snip) Meath, Kildare, Wicklow and Louth has seen the most dramatic rise in prices over the past year, jumping by 18.6 per cent - or more than four times faster than in the previous year. (todays I.T. frontpage)
It looks as if - regardless of the sense of the unreality of property on this forum - potential purchasers just think "Well - what's an extra hundred odd euro a month" and keep on firing on all cylinders!!
G
Guest107
Guest
Many are indeed, the demographic that is buying is mainly that which gets long term contracts in the Health services (India , Pakistan, Phillipines) and not the recent eastern european influx who tend to work in construction and services .
Many Indian and Pakistani buyers have been here for years in sizeable numbers , arguably since the 1980s , while the Filipino group started to come in the late 1990. The study did not produce a nuanced view of 'who' is buying of course.
They are not to be confused with citizens of EU accession states post 2004 who make up the greater number of foreign nationals in Ireland nowadays.
Yes, it was definitely firing on all cylinders in April/May, this was when the bulk of the property in the report would have been sale-agreed. The market this spring was absolutely crazy. Looks like the slowdown is beginning to feed through however, the ESRI reports in the coming months will be very interesting.
T
tententwenty
Guest
Most of the Filipinos are nurses who are subject to annual reviews and examinations in order to maintain their working visa status. Some have become naturalised, but I guarantee you that most of them have little desire to settle in Ireland, and are setting themselves up with a nice nest egg at home, as well as a small palace that they couldn't possibly afford in Ireland. The only reason a lot of them stay this long is because they have to support extended family networks who pooled the money to educate them and send them over here in the first place. I spend several months a year over there, so I know whereof I speak.
This report seems to be rearranging deck chairs on the titanic, although I can't speak for Indians or Pakistanis.
EvilDoctorK
Registered User
- Messages
- 1,014
Indeed
- IMC is a (relatively) small brokerage - representing a small %age of the market - I would imagine they have a disproportionately high number of "foreign" buyers ... if you looked at direct applications to banks etc. I think you'd find the overall number would be a lot lower than the 18.5% quoted in this report.
B
Bedsit
Guest
Actually most of the foreign nurses are not directly hired by the HSE. They are subcontracted from other agencies and are on work permits. Most of these immigrants may not wish to stay in Ireland long term, however they have no intention of leaving without an EU passport either.
The thing to remember is that today we are at full employment. Not much attention is paid when jobs are lost to foreigners at the low skilled end of the spectrum. However if jobs of middle class Ireland start to be lost to foreign workers, you can be sure that the local politicians will hear about this. Just take a look at the UK media in the last few days. I would suspect that the government under pressure will have to introduce new laws to curb immigration. Maybe even stop the work permit/visa scheme, and in extreme circumstances change citizenship laws. Thats when the real trouble will start!
The thing to remember is that today we are at full employment. Not much attention is paid when jobs are lost to foreigners at the low skilled end of the spectrum. However if jobs of middle class Ireland start to be lost to foreign workers, you can be sure that the local politicians will hear about this. Just take a look at the UK media in the last few days. I would suspect that the government under pressure will have to introduce new laws to curb immigration. Maybe even stop the work permit/visa scheme, and in extreme circumstances change citizenship laws. Thats when the real trouble will start!
Raskolnikov
Registered User
- Messages
- 351
Anecdotally, does anyone know of a Pole or Lithuanian who has bought a house in Ireland? I never met one, on the otherhand, I know of several Indian/Pakistani/Filipino homeowners.
G
Guest126
Guest
Most of them I know can't afford a car in Ireland - never mind a house!
I know a few of them who are buying/building in their home country though.
I know a few of them who are buying/building in their home country though.
B
Bedsit
Guest
That is just the point. EU migrants can easily move to another country in search of jobs. However Non-EU nationals do not have that luxuary, and that is one of their main reasons for buying houses. The thinking is that it will become very difficult politically for the govenrment to force them to leave if they have bought a house in Ireland and established roots here.
P
phoenix_n
Guest
May not have to wait so long.
And doing some research. Contacted an EA about a property in D7 asking price 750K. Emailed saying that i would only be interested in viewing if vendor was willing to negotiate around the 700K mark.
This was the response
I would not think they clients would accept any as low as EUR700,000 for the house, however if you budget was possible to stretch further and you wish to view and make an offer we will put it to them for their decision
Now this in itself means nothing but.....?
- Status