W
wolfie
Guest
House rental prices have always been a fair ratio to wages.Mortgage payments are not.
If we are going to have an imminent housing crash (affecting the whole economy), then why are our banking shares so high...surely all the "smart" money would have cashed in??
Firefly
The momentum aspect is a very good point.Because borrowings are growing at 30% and it will take time for this to slow down meantime banks will make alot of profit. This massive momentum will carry growth in house prices into 2007 at a national level.
I don't think there's much doubt that the ECB base rate will hit 3.5% by December (considering futures trading). At the moment, it's a question of whether the ECB base rate will go even higher.Only if ECB rates get to 3.5% by Cmas will the going get tougher and if they stop there it could stretch the growth all the way to end 2007 particulary with SSIA support.
You're right. People are so naive with regards banks in this country. I know people who talk of their bank manager as if he's their best mate, but I adopt a much more arms-length approach in dealing with banks. You cannot afford to get sucked into the glitz and marketing-speak behind the various 'offers' made available (in a very complicated fashion) by banks today.Irish banks know that they can change the rules and make credit easier to get, find new buyers and hence stretch the game further into the future. In US at peak of their recent boom you did not even have top pay all the interest on IO mortgages as some of the interest was deferred and added to your mortgage for the first few years. So there are a few tricks left in the bag yet.
It's all relative. If you think 125 times monthly rent is a fair price, I doubt you'll ever own a home unless there was a catastrophe in the property market.
Pointless comparison. Australians earn a lot less than we do. As a corollary, I could show a Norwegian property prices here and he would consider it very affordable relative to his income.
AFAIK the Irish Mortgage Corporation (IMC) is owned by Hooke and McDonald so not surprising that Geoff and Frank would be talking the market up.
Not true, they share a building.
The IT is quick out of the traps this morning to reassure that all is well with regard to the property outlook....
[broken link removed]
"Many first time buyers are foreign, says study"
http://www.rte.ie/news/2006/0823/housing.html
It looks as if - regardless of the sense of the unreality of property on this forum - potential purchasers just think "Well - what's an extra hundred odd euro a month" and keep on firing on all cylinders!!
Most of the Filipinos are nurses who are subject to annual reviews and examinations in order to maintain their working visa status. Some have become naturalised, but I guarantee you that most of them have little desire to settle in Ireland, and are setting themselves up with a nice nest egg at home, as well as a small palace that they couldn't possibly afford in Ireland. The only reason a lot of them stay this long is because they have to support extended family networks who pooled the money to educate them and send them over here in the first place. I spend several months a year over there, so I know whereof I speak.Many Indian and Pakistani buyers have been here for years in sizeable numbers , arguably since the 1980s , while the Filipino group started to come in the late 1990. The study did not produce a nuanced view of 'who' is buying of course.
...and now that they are losing Irish buyers, they are trying to find a new story!
"Many first time buyers are foreign, says study"
http://www.rte.ie/news/2006/0823/housing.html
Many are indeed, the demographic that is buying is mainly that which gets long term contracts in the Health services (India , Pakistan, Phillipines) and not the recent eastern european influx who tend to work in construction and services .
Many Indian and Pakistani buyers have been here for years in sizeable numbers , arguably since the 1980s , while the Filipino group started to come in the late 1990. The study did not produce a nuanced view of 'who' is buying of course.
They are not to be confused with citizens of EU accession states post 2004 who make up the greater number of foreign nationals in Ireland nowadays.
Most of the Filipinos are nurses who are subject to annual reviews and examinations in order to maintain their working visa status. Some have become naturalised, but I guarantee you that most of them have little desire to settle in Ireland, and are setting themselves up with a nice nest egg at home, as well as a small palace that they couldn't possibly afford in Ireland. The only reason a lot of them stay this long is because they have to support extended family networks who pooled the money to educate them and send them over here in the first place. I spend several months a year over there, so I know whereof I speak.
This report seems to be rearranging deck chairs on the titanic, although I can't speak for Indians or Pakistanis.
Anecdotally, does anyone know of a Pole or Lithuanian who has bought a house in Ireland? I never met one, on the otherhand, I know of several Indian/Pakistani/Filipino homeowners.Many Indian and Pakistani buyers have been here for years in sizeable numbers , arguably since the 1980s , while the Filipino group started to come in the late 1990. The study did not produce a nuanced view of 'who' is buying of course.
Anecdotally, does anyone know of a Pole or Lithuanian who has bought a house in Ireland? I never met one, on the otherhand, I know of several Indian/Pakistani/Filipino homeowners.
Yes, it was definitely firing on all cylinders in April/May, this was when the bulk of the property in the report would have been sale-agreed. The market this spring was absolutely crazy. Looks like the slowdown is beginning to feed through however, the ESRI reports in the coming months will be very interesting.
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