Current public sentiment towards the housing market?

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Slightly off topic...

As the prices climb ever higher people seem to be treating the whole thing like monopoly money..ie the price bears no resemblence with normality at all and people just say "sure it's only another 10 grand"...can we blame the intro of the euro for this..ie in Old money an apt at IR180 becomes
230k in euro.

Firefly
 
Looking around for house to rent at the moment. Feels inconvenient to have to move so much stuff but not as inconvenient to potentially lose money in next while. Although house prices could still rise too!
We are wondering will rents fall or are landlords choosy who they take in. Went to see nice house almost 2 weeks ago. Other people there also for viewing. Was'nt suitable for our needs. Expected it to be snapped up but it is still advertised for rent on daft. Also, a couple of other landlords sound very accommodating for houses we are viewing next week. We did'nt mention we sold house but they seemed to be very flexible with viewing time and length of lease.
 
I noticed a lot of asking price drops in Rathfarnam lately. Many of the houses towards the end of the myhome search have seen substantial price drops. One house caught my attention, it shows how speculators and amateur property "developers" can get caught in a weakening market.

This couple bought a house in Rathfarnam for 1.15M in June last year. They spent six months and €500,000 renovating it along with €103,500 in stamp duty. So a total spend of about €1,753,500. It failed to sell at auction in May and following the auction it was quoting €2.1M

Their story is told in this article:
http://www.propertyinvesting.net/cgi-script/csNews/csNews.cgi?database=default.db3744&command=viewonex

And now it has dropped to €1,750,000 on myhome.
[broken link removed]=

So after six months of what sounds like a horrific renovation project it's looking like a zero return. If it sells! If market sentiment had not changed , rising prices would have saved them but it's no longer a one-way bet.
Stamp duty?? also interest on 1.75million for a year? The amount of their own time they spent on the project.

If these "property developers" had done nothing to the property and sold it in march/april this year they would have made a fair bit of profit. Looking at a loss now unless theres a price spurt at higher end of market in next few months. The inter
 
On daft figures... (yes, I know)

I thought that increasing inventory from the daft site would be the first obvious sign of edginess in the market.

I have no doubt that those running the site are only all too aware of this aswell - especially when you consider that half the bears on here are watching this figure. Were I in charge of daft, I would keep the number of houses online for sale at a steady level, whilst increasing the turnover of the number of houses, for fear of sparking a 'mad rush'. As people get more desperate to sell, they don't mind paying the advertising fee more regularly even though it's only for a short period of time.

Anyone know how daft.ie sales work? How many days does your property stay online for? Is it random? Or is it until the house is sold?
 
I can see also that alot of investors rental properties are coming onto the market. Propect hill in finglas (glasnevin if ur a snob) are now coming on the market and are advertised for 1200euros a month for 2 bed. I'd bet that you'd get it for a grand.
 
On daft figures... (yes, I know)

I thought that increasing inventory from the daft site would be the first obvious sign of edginess in the market.

I have no doubt that those running the site are only all too aware of this aswell - especially when you consider that half the bears on here are watching this figure. Were I in charge of daft, I would keep the number of houses online for sale at a steady level, whilst increasing the turnover of the number of houses, for fear of sparking a 'mad rush'. As people get more desperate to sell, they don't mind paying the advertising fee more regularly even though it's only for a short period of time.

Anyone know how daft.ie sales work? How many days does your property stay online for? Is it random? Or is it until the house is sold?


Please read prev postings on why daft figures cannot/should not be used in terms of sale etc etc.

with regard to the posting above on renting etc... I have noticed (in the Cork City section of daft lettings), that many premises for rent do not remain up there for long - they get snapped up fairly quickly as far as I can see. I don't know what the dynamics are on why stuff goes up there & moves pretty quickly ... perhaps as university term is about to commence soon enough?

ninsaga
 
Please read prev postings on why daft figures cannot/should not be used in terms of sale etc etc.

with regard to the posting above on renting etc... I have noticed (in the Cork City section of daft lettings), that many premises for rent do not remain up there for long - they get snapped up fairly quickly as far as I can see. I don't know what the dynamics are on why stuff goes up there & moves pretty quickly ... perhaps as university term is about to commence soon enough?

ninsaga

Is there not a truck load of S50 coming on stream in Cork which should cause downward pressure on rents?
 
Hi Guys,


I have been following this thread for a while now and am fascinated. I have held the opinion for some time now that a slowdown is unavoidable and will begin sooner rather than later. I cannot see drops of 40/50% by xmas that were predicted by some but I can see prices stalling for a few months before sellers panic and start to drop asking prices.
I was in the process of buying an apt myself but just pulled out last week. This was about 20% down to problems with contracts/management Company and 80% our gut feeling that prices are close to their peak. I'd also like to state that I was only buying so we could have a place to live and to avoid throwing 12k p/a into our landlords bank account, and not to make money on capital appreciation.
I am pretty good when it comes to managing finances and I work for a major bank so I would have decent knowledge of mortgage products etc, however looking back I can see that all my logic and my head telling me "do I want to pay €1500 of my salary every month to live in a shoebox of apartment with no outside space, crap build quality and a generally give up going for dinner/pints/holidays" was totally overruled by a desire just to have our own place, somewhere that is really "our home" and that we can alter/decorate/furnish just as we want it and to be forever rid of landlords bleeding magnolia paint everywhere!!
Even though everyone has called me crazy to give up on "getting on the ladder" (man I hate that saying), I feel as though a huge weight has been lifted off my shoulders. Renting doesn’t seem so bad anymore, I may be paying out "dead money" every month but hey I live my favorite part of Dublin, we are close to all our favorite friends/pubs/restaurants/parks and 20 mins walk to work.
To all FTB's out there, everyone (i.e. parents/friends/family/colleagues) don’t have to pay your huge mortgage, live in your crappy ("1st rung on the ladder") apt, sit (or stand) on your cramped bus/train on your daily commute from the only area you could afford to buy in and they wont be with you when you are staying awake at night worrying when interest rate rises are robbing you of what little disposable income you have left.
Once you take a step back and look at things with some semblance of logic you will be able to forget about everyone else and do whats right for you and makes you happy!!
Maybe I have made one of the worst decisions of my life but only time will tell, so far I couldn’t be happier!!

BTW, that couple spending 2m on house, they're just like 1000's of others throughout UK/Ireland who watch property shows on BBC/C4 that show saps that don’t have a clue how to manage a project/budget, don’t have a clue about the market they are entering or construction and still manage to make 6 figure profits, and they think to themselves, "I’ll have some of that easy money too".
 
Maybe I have made one of the worst decisions of my life but only time will tell, so far I couldn’t be happier!!

Good decision - even if there is no crash in the short term, your quality of life will be much better while you hold off. The optimists at Bank of Ireland are predicting only 3% growth in property next year which is negative in real terms. Even if their optimistic predictions are correct, you won't be missing out on much growth. I think you are saving yourself from potential financial misery, commuting hell and despair at living in a property that you don't even like.
 
Hi Guys,


I have been following this thread for a while now and am fascinated. I have held the opinion for some time now that a slowdown is unavoidable and will begin sooner rather than later. I cannot see drops of 40/50% by xmas that were predicted by some but I can see prices stalling for a few months before sellers panic and start to drop asking prices.
I was in the process of buying an apt myself but just pulled out last week. This was about 20% down to problems with contracts/management Company and 80% our gut feeling that prices are close to their peak. I'd also like to state that I was only buying so we could have a place to live and to avoid throwing 12k p/a into our landlords bank account, and not to make money on capital appreciation.
I am pretty good when it comes to managing finances and I work for a major bank so I would have decent knowledge of mortgage products etc, however looking back I can see that all my logic and my head telling me "do I want to pay €1500 of my salary every month to live in a shoebox of apartment with no outside space, crap build quality and a generally give up going for dinner/pints/holidays" was totally overruled by a desire just to have our own place, somewhere that is really "our home" and that we can alter/decorate/furnish just as we want it and to be forever rid of landlords bleeding magnolia paint everywhere!!
Even though everyone has called me crazy to give up on "getting on the ladder" (man I hate that saying), I feel as though a huge weight has been lifted off my shoulders. Renting doesn’t seem so bad anymore, I may be paying out "dead money" every month but hey I live my favorite part of Dublin, we are close to all our favorite friends/pubs/restaurants/parks and 20 mins walk to work.
To all FTB's out there, everyone (i.e. parents/friends/family/colleagues) don’t have to pay your huge mortgage, live in your crappy ("1st rung on the ladder") apt, sit (or stand) on your cramped bus/train on your daily commute from the only area you could afford to buy in and they wont be with you when you are staying awake at night worrying when interest rate rises are robbing you of what little disposable income you have left.
Once you take a step back and look at things with some semblance of logic you will be able to forget about everyone else and do whats right for you and makes you happy!!
Maybe I have made one of the worst decisions of my life but only time will tell, so far I couldn’t be happier!!

BTW, that couple spending 2m on house, they're just like 1000's of others throughout UK/Ireland who watch property shows on BBC/C4 that show saps that don’t have a clue how to manage a project/budget, don’t have a clue about the market they are entering or construction and still manage to make 6 figure profits, and they think to themselves, "I’ll have some of that easy money too".

Good post, and good for you. Is this post and are you, really indicative of sentiment out there, or as I still think, is this thread just a fringe minority of "clear thinkers"?
 
Good post, and good for you. Is this post and are you, really indicative of sentiment out there, or as I still think, is this thread just a fringe minority of "clear thinkers"?

I think there's a growing awareness that things have changed in the market. Even looking at new builds, developments that had been sold out have properties available again due to cancellations.

Today I noticed a pre-completion apartment for sale (probably a flipper) in a new development in south Dublin. It has been for sale for about three months. The vendor had been selling the apartment for 15k below the builder. As it is pre-completion, there is no stamp duty. Today they dropped their price to 30k below the builder. The current phase of these apartments had sold out - now there's a flipper selling at 30k below and the builder is re-advertising units for sale at the original price!
 
Where is this development?

Stillorgan - New apartment price drop, pre-completion, no stamp duty. It has been for sale for a few months. Price drop occurred within the past 4 days.

Old listing : €575,000


New listing : €560,000
http://www.daft.ie/searchsale.daft?search=1&selected_agent=&id=84285&s[agent_id]=218&s[p]=upsvvwrp

Builders listing : €590,000
[broken link removed]=

Sentiment must really have changed for this apartment to be struggling to sell.
 
I think there's a growing awareness that things have changed in the market. Even looking at new builds, developments that had been sold out have properties available again due to cancellations.

Today I noticed a pre-completion apartment for sale (probably a flipper) in a new development in south Dublin. It has been for sale for about three months. The vendor had been selling the apartment for 15k below the builder. As it is pre-completion, there is no stamp duty. Today they dropped their price to 30k below the builder. The current phase of these apartments had sold out - now there's a flipper selling at 30k below and the builder is re-advertising units for sale at the original price!

Suspected that this would happen and I don't think this will be the last of its kind by a long shot. I would imagine that these flippers who have bought in the last 6-12 months (in new builds) will realise that there might not be another sap further down the line on which they can offload their property onto.

What percentage of the asking price is this 30K?
 
Cheers, a sizeable drop I would say. I wonder what the builders will have to say when they see this, not to mention someone who had coughed up the full €590k.......:eek:

Correct me if I'm wrong but isn't the situation even worse for an investor?

With stamp duty and other expenses he/she could pay €640k for a two-bed apartment only to find his neighbour has been trying to sell or has sold in the region of €560k !
 
A colleague in work was enthused today to tell me all about his experiences on the Irish housing market.

He bought a house in Laragh in the Wicklow mountains with a nice view , 4 bedrooms etc etc for 350k several years ago on an interest only mortgage.

Well, today its apparently worth 750K, so he's sold it and moved into a tiny semi-d with 3 beds in Cabinteely for 750K..yep you guessed it..for 750K interest free mortgage.

He should own equity..but sure prices are rising so fast he'd be mad to not take benifit of it..

I do the same job as him and am roughly paid the same amount....my car is a Fabia 02D, his is an 06 Toyota Avensis as is the wifes (single income family)Yaris.
I bought the Fabia this year and told him it was all I could afford and he looked at me like I was crazy.

So in summary..he's got an interest only mortgage on a 750K tiny semi -d (in a nice 'ish area) with the 06 car etc..and I rent a bedsit and save about 1K a month and drive a Fabia and have zero debts.

I think he's crazy to have the amount of debt he has, on the other side of the coin, whats the worst that can happen ? He declares himself bankrupt in a house crash and rents like me , but had a few good years?

The housing market is nuts and I feel its going to burn people like him, and people like me will have to talk in subdued tones in the work canteen as we didnt live the high life in the years of plenty for all, and now are not in a tizzy about interest rates and falling house prices as are the easy money generationers

I see people like him clamouring for child car allowance increases and mortgage allowance increases as "all" Irish homeoners are now dual income and someone has to look after the kids....

I'm single, I don't particularily want to suppliment Mr & Mrs Overextended Mortgage and Creche Expenses

Emigration really seems like the only option to me, I cannot see how the economy can be anything but a basket case with every family needing two people working and no-one bar the creche to look after the kids to pay the huge mortgage in years to come.

The other thing that strikes me is that with two parents working and the creche costs..smaller families are the inevitable result - who's going to buy all these houses 20-30 years from now with shrinking population?
A 20 year plus investment in the Irish property market just really doesn't make sense looking at the demographics imho.

Sentiment - more bearish by the minute
 
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