"Comparing Bitcoin to Ponzi Schemes is unfair...

Lesson on the ideal currency for a modern economy for slow learners.
it should retain enough value over the short term to be accepted as barter.
it should lose enough value over the medium term that people don’t HODL it.
That‘s a difficult act to pull off but after centuries of our developing civilisation we have managed to do it.
 
I've listened to McWilliams podcast etc where yer man got a free pass to sell this.
What free pass? McWilliams is a long way from becoming a proponent of bitcoin. He may have dropped a few of the objections through which he misunderstood it - but he still remains a sceptic. Whilst Dave likes to talk, I honestly don't think he was equipped to challenge him. Pretty frustrating that between him and his sidekick, they came out with a couple of objections after the event - which they could have challenged Saylor on.


I am none the wiser as to why this is a store of value. No explanation given as to why this store of value will beat inflation, however defined. There's a lot of waffle about finite supply, but that exists in the ether and nothing stopping bettercoin2# being established also with a finite issue.
If you believe that it doesn't have finite supply, then there's no discussion to be had. That argument was brought out in 2017 but not so much the last couple of years. If 'bettercoin' comes along, it will have to be 10x better to usurp bitcoin in the role that it's taking on. The usual example that's rolled out is Facebook usurping MySpace. The difference is that the market cap of MySpace was miniscule (comparatively) at the time and Facebook did have something significant in order to overcome them (optimised for mobile when myspace was desktop-based). Otherwise, if you think it could be usurped so easily, surely the same should have already happened to google, facebook, twitter, etc? It's incredibly difficult to deconstruct network effect.

I've spent a few weekends with an open mind trying to get this, but the more I look at it the more I see an increasingly aggressive sell to try and hook more people in, not restricted to just consumers influenced by superbowl ads but also people of influence so they won't legislate and collapse the pyramid.

So what's the difference between banks like JPMorgan, Citibank, Charles Schwab, etc taking out Superbowl ads vs. their equivalents in the crypto space? As regards the use of influence to make sure they don't legislate against it - you better believe it. Why would you expect them not to - given that this is the system that is setup already? This is the system that has been holding crypto back up until now - as those banks above (and many others) are embedded with the politicos in Washington.
A case in point. The current Chair of the SEC is ex-Goldman Sachs. The remit of the SEC is to protect the little guy. The only thing that Goldman Gary has done is approve a futures based bitcoin ETF (where his Wall Street chums make 10% in fees as those contracts are rolled over) and refusing to approve a spot-based bitcoin ETF - where ordinary investors wouldn't be exposed to those fees.

This includes having people based in El Salvador of all places posting day and night to plug this thing.

You really think that me posting here is propping up a $2 trillion + market? :D Have a listen to one of Mark Cuban's podcasts where he states that he only thinks there's oversized opportunity if he figures out that there's something in it whilst at the same time, there's major resistance to it. In terms of making bank, the longer there's resistance to the adoption of BTC and the longer and more drawn out that process takes, the greater the opportunity. Everyone will end up buying bitcoin at the price they deserve.


Why would this asset be a store of value over any other?

Because it possesses many of the qualities of what makes for a good store of value.
 
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I dont think anyone wants crypto to replace a currency, people just want to make money with their investments

Decentralised finance allows huge staking rewards for very little risk in a lot of cases. You can transfer those staking rewards to a centralised exchange and spend the money daily in any shop or pub or restaraunt

There are multiple options available to people but it's not for everyone although I'm sure people would love an extra income hitting their accounts every day
 
Listened to the podcast.
OMG the worst load of BS I have ever encountered from both these ego maniacs. DMcW kept rolling out his nonsense and it was clear that Saylor didn’t agree with or understand what he was banging on about (neither did I).
Just some of the low lights:
BTC is energy which is thermonuclearly sound and can travel thru time and space (Einstein roll over)
If your main concern is leaving property to your great, great, great, grand (I counted) children BTC is yer only man
If God was to create a currency he would creat BTC
cryptocurrency is totally wrong nomenclature, it is crypto property - it is not a currency (gosh I agree)
The El Sal experiment is going off the rails because they are treating it as a currency (where did they get that idea, I cuda told them that leaving property to their great, great, great, grandchildren is a not a number one priority for the folk of El Sal)
Folk should have all their pension fund in BTC

Putting myself in Saylor’s shoes with more dosh than I or my kids could ever spend I might start worrying about my great, great, great, grandchildren and sure after a couple of nuke wars who knows? bitcoin might be the only game in town. Mind you I’ll keep anything I might need in this mortal coil in The God I Trust.
 
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DMcW kept rolling out his nonsense and it was clear that Saylor didn’t agree with or understand what he was banging on about (neither did I).
Just some of the low lights:
In all fairness, it's very hard for Saylor to respond to waffle and when that waffle comes from someone who hasn't got a proper grasp of the subject (yet), then what can you expect?

BTC is energy which is thermonuclearly sound and can travel thru time and space (Einstein roll over)
I suppose you can try hard to not understand his point if you're diametrically opposed to it, Duke;) All he's saying is that value can be changed into different forms - whether its from fiat to bricks n mortar to equities, etc. Comparatively, bitcoin can be transmitted with ease through space. It can be done in an instant - without involving a third party.
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That's not the same with gold - it's hard to move and it can be confiscated relatively easily (which he gives examples of - be it at a nation state level or personal level ). Bricks n mortar has far more friction in that sense. Equities less so - but you're still at the mercy of third party brokers, governments, etc.
On the 'time' aspect, his claim is that bitcoin holds its value over a long time horizon. Cash is a melting ice cube. Incidentally, did you manage to find any government or banking industry warning or advice directing citizens NOT to hold their savings in fiat?


cryptocurrency is totally wrong nomenclature, it is crypto property - it is not a currency (gosh I agree)
The El Sal experiment is going off the rails because they are treating it as a currency (where did they get that idea, I cuda told them that leaving property to their great, great, great, grandchildren is a not a number one priority for the folk of El Sal)
How is the El Sal experiment going 'off the rails'? I'm here - I haven't seen any 'off the rails' aspects to it. The photo I just took below suggests education and adoption.

IMG_20220219_125900.jpg

What Bukele has done here is being misunderstood from what I can see. The objective isn't that everyone in the country use bitcoin every day for all purposes - it's simply that they can if they want or need to....and in that way remittances can be brought into the country without the Western Union tax and to get around the failed banking system where 70% don't have access.

Where there is push back is with the bitcoin bond raise - that kicks in next month. The IMF don't like the idea of being made irrelevant. It's very much an experiment and remains to be seen if it works - but it's an entirely different project to the initial bitcoin rollout here.

The reason Saylor exaggerated the timespan with reference to the great great grandkids was to demonstrate his belief that bitcoin can be relied upon over a long term time horizon to maintain its value and buying power. McWilliams came back at him with the same point you're making i.e. what would that matter to poor people - and his response is valid as far as i'm concerned i.e. if inflation is a minimum 10% pa - then anyone holding any savings greater than a year has an interest in choosing a mechanism where their savings are not vapourised via inflation.

Folk should have all their pension fund in BTC
I didn't catch that when I listened to it. Can you provide the timestamp for the point in the interview where this was discussed?

Mind you I’ll keep anything I might need in this mortal coil in The God He Trusts.
Yeah, those that don't get it can have their savings pilfered via the melting ice cube that is fiat if they won't listen. I'm fine with that so long as I have full freedom to maintain full control over my own savings - and that I can be assured that it retains its buying power. That's all I ever wanted from btc when I first came across it. I didn't understand that to get there we'd have to go through this long, protracted adoption process with it being overpriced and underpriced at times - and all the other risks and growing pains. But that's alright - if I'm getting paid a premium to take on those risks as an early adopter, that works too.
 
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In all fairness, it's very hard for Saylor to respond to waffle and when that waffle comes from someone who hasn't got a proper grasp of the subject (yet), then what can you expect?
Agreed
On the 'time' aspect, his claim is that bitcoin holds its value over a long time horizon
He has no basis for that claim at all. 12 years of the most turbulent price history albeit on balance spectacularly upwards is no proof at all that this will be around for his great, great, great, grandchildren. All the cult high priests that I have read concede that there is a non negligible chance it will go to zero. I think you agree with that or at least that it is possible that his g,g,g,g children will be into bitcoin series 10.
Cash is a melting ice cube. Incidentally, did you manage to find any government or banking industry warning or advice directing citizens NOT to hold their savings in fiat?
They have made it very clear that they target reducing its purchasing power by 2% per annum. Do you want them to draw diagrams?
Now investing in interest bearing deposits has kept pace with inflation over the last century and does belong in a pension portfolio.
How is the El Sal experiment going 'off the rails'? I'm here - I haven't seen any 'off the rails' aspects to it.
It was just that Saylor said that what El Sal "got wrong" was calling it a currency but I can certainly believe you if you say he is talking BS.
I didn't catch that when I listened to it. Can you provide the timestamp for the point in the interview where this was discussed?
Around about 30 mins. No store of value left. Cash, bonds, gold, equities all rubbish. Money broken. Retiree no choice but to invest in risky assets (he has a point there). But now we have a "savings account in cyber space suitable for anyone who cannot run their own hedge fund". Doesn't sound like advice to put 2% of your portfolio in crypto as a diversification play. McWilliams went into brown nose overdrive at this point "That was very well put."
 
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He has no basis for that claim at all. 12 years of the most turbulent price history albeit on balance spectacularly upwards is no proof at all that this will be around for his great, great, great, grandchildren. All the cult high priests that I have read concede that there is a non negligible chance it will go to zero. I think you agree with that or at least that it is possible that his g,g,g,g children will be into bitcoin series 10.

I would say this. He has most definitely done his homework. Yes, the history of BTC is short and it is going through the phases re. adoption. He has every right to express his opinion - especially so given that he has put his money where his mouth is. If bitcoin continues onward in terms of adoption this guy becomes a legend. If it fails, he becomes a fool. There's a a lot at stake for him personally - whereas he could have settled for the quiet/comfortable/non-controversial life.

And by the way, I will once again confirm that I believe there is a non negligible chance that bitcoin crashes and burns. Seeing as you raise that, I'll also state that there is very much a non negligible chance that bitcoin powers on from here. That yourself and @Brendan Burgess won't acknowledge this speaks to how you both want things to transpire and not to the non-emotive reality.

They have made it very clear that they target reducing its purchasing power by 2% per annum.
I don't give a ... It's like some chav rocks up and says I'm going to relieve you of just X % of your possessions and you should appreciate that. Tell u what.. let's get this bedded down to a point we can opt out of that crap and you boomers can keep getting ridden - that works for me (and by the way its never 2% in reality - that's a fairytale).


Do you want them to draw diagrams?
I've been living in Latin America for quite a few years. They're an exceptionally polite people..but disrespect them and watch what happens. So i invite you to drop over to this part of the world and come out with that bile. I'll make sure to bring some natives along.
Now investing in interest bearing deposits has kept pace with inflation over the last century and does belong in a pension portfolio.
Get out of it Duke! Now I'm buying you a ticket to come out here as that's even worse than your statement above!
It was just that Saylor said that what El Sal "got wrong" was calling it a currency but I can certainly believe you if you say he is talking BS.
I'm just saying that it's being misunderstood. Saylor comes from a highly regulated world and applies a different use case. I'm sure he wants to go out of his way to demonstrate how non-threatening bitcoin is. I kind of agree with him anyway with the caveat that it's necessary to have the ability to spend btc should an individual have cause to do so. He doesn't need that so much for bitcoin to be otherwise successful as a store of value but the world needs that - so that when some clowns in government screw things up (deliberately or otherwise), there's an immediate plan b available.
Also, it's a case of pure convenience. If you happen to have btc in your portfolio, why shouldn't you make use of the ease at which it can be utilised - whether its to transfer it to someone the other side of the planet or to pay for a good/service locally?

Around about 30 mins. No store of value left. Cash, bonds, gold, equities all rubbish. Money broken. Retiree no choice but to invest in risky assets (he has a point there). But now we have a "savings account in cyber space suitable for anyone who cannot run their own hedge fund". Doesn't sound like advice to put 2% of your portfolio in crypto as a diversification play. McWilliams went into brown nose overdrive at this point "That was very well put."
So he NEVER said what you claimed ( i.e. put ALL pension fund in BTC ) and you're playing to the AAM peanut gallery with that false claim.

People are being pushed out the risk curve in order to keep their heads above water (inflation). Ordinary people don't have the knowledge or time to navigate that crap. But he NEVER said what you claimed.
 
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Couldn’t resist.
Indeed - except we're talking about bitcoin here rather than crypto. There's a distinction. None of the categories of 'diversity' in your tweet apply.

Now if you'd like to talk about crypto projects generally, sure there are plenty of wayward projects. However, if the suggestion is that none of these projects are legitimate and trying to innovate, that would be a mistake. If the suggestion is that we've found some wayward projects, so its logical to tar and feather every single project in the space as a ponzi/pyramid, etc. etc. - that would be moronic.
 
Thoughts and prayers for the people who have lost their shirts in the past 6 months.
I think peeps in the conventional markets are getting short changed here. Are there no 'thoughts and prayers' for Netflix investors at all? - the poor craturs nursing their 74% loss over the past 6 months.

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How about Virgin Galactic, Under Armour, Nvidia, Facebook? Amzn is only down 40% so probably not worth mentioning.
 
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Alts will likely bleed a lot more.

It was market conditions like this and what's coming back in 2019 that made me diversify from bitcoin solely and into alts

This is the time I'll be looking for entries again, good luck to anyone starting this cycle. Good opportunities

I missed out on Luna but wow, that's going to make a fascinating documentary some day.

If they re-peg, I might have a flutter
 
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No, comparing Bitcoin, or indeed its derivatives, to a ponzi scheme is not unfair.

As it's the truth
In the Madoff Ponzi, victims were able to get 70% compensation from the crooks. There will be no compensation for the victims of the Bitcoin BOHA.
At least Ponzi schemes are a zero sum game - winners match losers. Bitcoin is a massive negative sum game as billions are incinerated in wasted electricity.
So it is certainly unfair on Ponzi to compare it with Bitcoin, as the FT article in OP claimed.
 

At least if they had a well diversified portfolio that only included some stonks they'd be fairly insulated. I know a fair few 20 somethings who's only exposure is to this bag of hot air. I would wager that there is far more concentration risk associated with Bitcoin hodlers than pretty much any other class of investor.
 
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