Absolutely not. As you yourself say, there is no real historical reference point as to how long it will take for something like this to unravel.
Ok, but If I've been told on this board continually that its a ponzi/pyramid, etc. - we've had ponzi's and pyramid's before. What makes this different? Why would it not pan out in the very same way? I've been told by some that it's the 'mother of all bubbles'..but show me the 'bubble' that inflates and deflates and has done so on about 5 occassions already. Would it not have been 'found out' after the first bust?
Surely it can only 'reinflate' if there's some utility there?
When the price of something is based purely on speculation, it becomes very difficult to even guess, as there are so many vested interests with large sums of money to lose.
That presupposes that its purely speculative - I'd challenge that (and rather than go through that again, I'll assume you've been following the discussion, in which case you'll have read that counterpoint already).
In my opinion, the crazy speculative volatility itself rules it out as ever being a means of payment that can be widely adopted, or as a real store of value for any sane person.
I agree that it takes a bit of getting the head round and it very much is volatile. However, there's a logic to the volatility. If you have a global asset whose supply is fixed starting out from baseline and going through various iterations of adoption - combined with a difficulty in how it is priced (because it's not like any other asset that exists already - albeit probably closest to a commodity ), then to me it's entirely rational to expect it to be volatile. Have a look at the volatility of gold when the gold standard was dropped in the '70's.
My understanding is that volatility will continue to diminish over a longer time horizon. Have a look at the stats from the latest Bloomberg Insights report that I linked to in a recent post. It demonstrates that relative volatility has already reduced considerably since 2017 - as adoption and market cap. has expanded.
I'd sooner experience short term volatility in return for major capital appreciation over the longer term. Anyone who can't stomach that shouldn't touch bitcoin - they can buy it at multiples of the price when its a mature asset. Anyone who does and finds that the fear of volatility is giving them an ulcer has too big of a position size relative to their risk appetite.
For all its apparent technological advances, there is literally nothing that Bitcoin can do that can't be done with the currency that we use now. I can't see any situation where I would want to use a bitcoin to transact,
It's a common mistake around these parts. Bitcoin is a global asset. If you solely consider it in terms of what it can or can't do for you today in Ireland, then you're not going to end up with a complete view of its actual utility. And by the way, that doesn't in anyway mean that anyone in Ireland can't find a use case for it today - or won't find an even greater use case for it tomorrow.
although I'm not a criminal.
Another common and incorrect assumption. There's plenty of recent data that shows illicit use as no more than 2% - far less than the conventional system.
What we do have are many situations to point to where the price of a stock or tech has been hyped to the max, pushing prices to ridiculous levels, and the lad that told me the other day that he bought 15k of bitcoin and literally has no idea even what it is, will invariable be the one to lose the most.
Firstly, that everything is in a bubble is symptomatic that there's something seriously wrong with the conventional system - but nobody wants to address that. Run a search for Carl Icahn's recent comments - where he said that the most recent advances in his wealth have not come about because he's a genius but because the conventional system is both broken and inequitable.
As regards the lad that bought the 15k of btc and doesn't know what it is, sure - there are plenty like him. However, that there are people that opt in at precisely the wrong time, haven't done the work and are driven exclusively by greed, doesn't detract from the asset itself. People get carried away in markets and have done since markets have existed - and particularly so with the new shiny thing that they don't understand. However, that does not mean that there isn't utility in bitcoin the asset and Bitcoin the network. It just means that price will get out ahead of its skis periodically and in the depths of market depression, it will likely undershoot fair value relative to the point its at in the adoption cycle.
At what point will you dump your bitcoins tecate ? or is your faith so profound that you're willing to lose everything ?
I've exited the market on three occasions over the course of what is now just shy of a decade. I'd prefer not to - but if there's wild over-exuberance then its difficult not to. Regardless of what some others may claim here, I don't run with a blind faith approach. When the facts change, my position will change. However, all I've seen over the past 5 years of discussion here is bitcoin growing by every conceivable metric. My thesis on bitcoin is intact. If that changes, I intend to change with it. I've diversified quite a lot over the past 18 months - spreading the risk beyond digital assets. However, I'm still heavily weighted towards digital assets (not just bitcoin) - which is something that I'm happy with and not something that would suit most.
You're quite right about the adjustable nature of the algo. Here's a word from Satoshi though just to complicate things:
