"Comparing Bitcoin to Ponzi Schemes is unfair...

The common pricing methodology for Bitcoin is to tie it to the cost of energy to produce,
Anyone applying that methodology simply doesn't understand how bitcoin mining works. The cost of mining follows the price not the other way round. If the price of bitcoin goes up the incentive to "mine" goes up and so the amount of electricity spent in finding the answer to the SHA puzzle goes up, and all vice versa.
Within 2 or 3 halvings the release of new bitcoins will be almost irrelevant, and of course in 2140 it will become totally irrelevant. Price is always an equilibrium between supply and demand but in the case of mined supply there is zero sensitivity to price. The supply of mined coins is 6.5 per 10 minutes completely irrespective of the price.
For physical gold it is a bit more complex. Obviously if gold became very cheap to mine that would bring down its price. With gold the price is to a certain extent the equilibrium between the utility demand for it and the cost of new supply from mining which can mine more or less gold unlike btc which always mines the same amount. This is not in any way the case for bitcoin.
 
Last edited:
Anyone applying that methodology simply doesn't understand how bitcoin mining works. The cost of mining follows the price not the other way round. If the price of bitcoin goes up the incentive to "mine" goes up and so the amount of electricity spent in find the answer to the SHA puzzle goes up, and all vice versa.
Within 2 or 3 halvings the release of new bitcoins will be almost irrelevant, and of course in 2140 it will become totally irrelevant. Price is always an equilibrium between supply and demand but in the case of mined supply there is zero sensitivity to price. The supply of mined coins is 6.5 per 10 minutes completely irrespective of the price.
For physical gold it is a bit more complex. Obviously if gold became very cheap to mine that would bring down its price. With gold the price is to a certain extent the equilibrium between the utility demand for it and the cost of new supply from mining which can mine more or less gold unlike btc which always mines the same amount. This is not in any way the case for bitcoin.

Mr. Antonopolous has trained you well, Duke :) You're quite right about the adjustable nature of the algo. Here's a word from Satoshi though just to complicate things:

"The price of any commodity tends to gravitate toward the production cost. If the price is below cost, then production slows down. If the price is above cost, profit can be made by generating and selling more. At the same time, the increased production would increase the difficulty, pushing the cost of generating towards the price. In later years, when new coin generation is a small percentage of the existing supply, market price will dictate the cost of production more than the other way round."

If the market plummets, difficulty decreases as the algo adjusts. Cost of production decreases as mining equipment becomes more efficient. As the difficulty decreases, new miners with less efficient mining kit can enter the market sustainably and profitably - and the network moves back up again.

Whilst it's not anywhere near the same in terms of how gold production cost works out, it's still implicated. Beyond that, the supply/demand dynamic is key.

Any word yet on what market cap or duration would be sufficient to accept that bitcoin isn't going to zero? @Rasputin tells me that BTC can reach its 23rd birthday and beyond - and infinite market cap - and we still couldn't be sure of that.
@Firefly : It's 1am local time - I do apologise for once again being in breach of your working hours directive. :cool:
 
Last edited:
@tecate You are asking me when I would accept the cult is here to stay. So I think of the cults of Christianity and Islam. Now without offending any one and without necessarily saying both are a nonsense at least one surely must be. And yet it has billions of followers and has been around for centuries. Let’s call it Chrislam. Is there a difference between Chrislam and bitcoin?
Chrislam is a theory about the after life, it is possible that theory can never be proved wrong. Bitcoin began life as a theory about being a global medium of exchange. That article of faith has already waned considerably and morphed into “store of value”. That illusion survives because the recent spectacular price performance is still in the memory. I don‘t think the store of value fallacy can have the staying power of Chrislam, but unlike the many bitcoin prophets who have their own but different views of its final resting place I admit complete ignorance of when logic will collapse the cult.
 
@Firefly : It's 1am local time - I do apologise for once again being in breach of your working hours directive. :cool:
No need to apologise...I commend your work ethic. If you have applied the same dedication in your real job, you must have a stellar career ;)
 
ATM machines do not dispense cash
Yet he says:

"As soon as we can we definitely will buy Bitcoin from the machine as when it’s in flourish, you can get good money from it”.

Presumably he's talking about the price of Bitcoin and not the ATM :rolleyes:
 
Yet he says:

"As soon as we can we definitely will buy Bitcoin from the machine as when it’s in flourish, you can get good money from it”.

Presumably he's talking about the price of Bitcoin and not the ATM :rolleyes:
Yeah, I'd imagine he's talking about BTC and not the delusion Jon Stewart mentions in the clip above.

No need to apologise...I commend your work ethic. If you have applied the same dedication in your real job, you must have a stellar career ;)
Oh good God no! Highly unqualified - no M.Sc. in Finance or business luncheons here.
 
Last edited:
@Duke ...I guess I won't be getting an answer to that question then! Oh well!

Otherwise, to your tar and feathering above, over to Jon Stewart & the former Kansas Fed CEO, Thomas Hoenig ->

You’re better than that with your usual links. I watched the full interview. This extract was shamefully cut and paste by the cult to further their credo. The cult’s high priests must obsess at creating this propaganda.
In the full interview the interviewer reveals his total naivete. He asks why don’t the Fed print dollars and buy back the US debt from China and Europe and then tear it up. Indeed that can be done. What Jon misses is that instead of owing the bonds the US would then owe the dollars.
So called “printing” of dollars is the US government borrowing. The owners of the dollars have a faith that they will be repaid. The owners of bitcoin have faith that there will be folk in the future prepared to pay them for their valueless digital entries (with dollars, they hope) just as they have done. That is Ponzi, though as OP reminds us it is actually worse than Ponzi.
 
This extract was shamefully cut and paste by the cult to further their credo.
I also watched the complete interview - and your claim isn't valid. The suggestion is that the excerpts have been devised to misrepresent. That's not the case - and what you go on with doesn't demonstrate otherwise.

The cult’s high priests must obsess at creating this propaganda.
And as you already know, your comment is wayward. There is no CEO for bitcoin. There is no Lagarde or Bailey or Powell. Those are your high priests. Bitcoin monetary policy is transparent and can't be tampered with. This is Trumpism from you (deflecting precisely the criticism that falls at the door of the conventional system).

In the full interview the interviewer reveals his total naivete.
That's also clear from the excerpts and it doesn't in any way detract from the evident takeaways from the interview. Everyone knows Jon Stewart isn't involved in monetary policy but he may have one or two years experience interviewing people perhaps.


He asks why don’t the Fed print dollars and buy back the US debt from China and Europe and then tear it up. Indeed that can be done. What Jon misses is that instead of owing the bonds the US would then owe the dollars.
You're deliberately misconstruing the direction of his query. You did the very same thing a year ago when I asked why can't they just print off whatever we owe the state in taxes this year and accept that as payment? Stewart's line of thought was to question the unbridled printing of money.

So called “printing” of dollars is the US government borrowing. The owners of the dollars have a faith that they will be repaid.

Complete BS Duke. In real terms if the $1000 dollars I've been carrying around in my pocket for the past 12 months is worth 10% less, who's going to write me a cheque for the $100 of buying power that has disappeared?

The owners of the dollars have a faith that they will be repaid.
Unless you can direct me to the person in the US government who's going to write me that $100 cheque, then I have no such faith. I'm not religious like you Duke - I don't have faith.
And in that interview we got it from the horses mouth. It's a FAITH - BASED system! The former Kansas Fed President acknowledged that and you yourself acknowledged that around 18 months ago when you said that you'd have to have faith in the ECB and the decisions it took.

The owners of bitcoin have faith that there will be folk in the future prepared to pay them for their valueless digital entries (with dollars, they hope) just as they have done.
Whether there are folks prepared to pay X for bitcoin in the future relates to adoption. It's got nothing to do with faith. Bitcoin's monetary policy is rules based - and everyone knows the rules - not just the elites. With fiat, you don't know from one minute to the next what interest rate will be set - or the motivation behind those decisions and who it may benefit most.
Just before the GFC Bernanke said everything was hunky dory - when he had info that couldn't have left him in any doubt about what was in play. Some months back, the Fed were continually claiming that either there was no inflation or that it was 'transitory'. We had people here saying that the evidence presented re. inflation was just hearsay. AFTER the fact, the Fed admits it's not transitory.

Any reasonable commentator will admit that the Fed was under incredible pressure from the Trump administration. The very same is true now with the Biden administration. Decisions taken that are helpful to politicians in the short term are most likely not in the best interests of ordinary people in the long term. But that's what the conventional system facilitates. By contrast, bitcoin monetary policy can't be tampered with. From that perspective, people don't have to pray and hope that decisions are made with their interests in mind rather than special interest groups or political interests.

That's before we get into a whole host of central banks that are mismanaged to the nth degree - because the currency supply and monetary system can be tampered with.
 
Last edited:
You're deliberately misconstruing the direction of his query. You did the very same thing a year ago when I asked why can't they just print off whatever we owe the state in taxes this year and accept that as payment?
Indeed, why don't they? Maybe that gives a clue to the (near) universal faith in developed democracies in their currency.
Complete BS Duke. In real terms if the $1000 dollars I've been carrying around in my pocket for the past 12 months is worth 10% less, who's going to write me a cheque for the $100 of buying power that has disappeared?
Sure, why stop at 10%. Take a leaf out of bitcoin and let it drop 40% in 2 months. The reality is that US dollar cash investment (i.e. plus deposit interest) has beaten inflation over the last century.
Unless you can direct me to the person in the US government who's going to write me that $100 cheque, then I have no such faith.
Ahh! I'm beginning to understand your lack of faith. You want a father figure you can trust to honour your dollars. Strange since you seem to drool at the lack of any central father figure for bitcoin.
I'm not religious like you Duke - I don't have faith.
And in that interview we got it from the horses mouth. It's a FAITH - BASED system! The former Kansas Fed President acknowledged that and you yourself acknowledged that around 18 months ago when you said that you'd have to have faith in the ECB and the decisions it took.
All debt is based on faith. Admittedly no faith is required to believe that a digital entry on a blockchain ledger is a digital entry on a blockchain ledger. One large dollop of Hope is required to hope this is a long term store of value.
Actually if you watch the clip again you will note that Jon teased the guy that it was a fake. He responded by saying it was faith based. Jon rolled around laughing as he thought he said it was fake based.
It's got nothing to do with faith. Bitcoin's monetary policy is rules based - and everyone knows the rules -
The first pre-requisite for an entity to be subject to "monetary policy" is that it is money. Cult high priest John Kelleher concedes that it has not yet reached that status.
 
Indeed, why don't they? Maybe that gives a clue to the (near) universal faith in developed democracies in their currency.
It's well you may ask the question. You and I are both left wondering as regards how much (money printing) was too much. You told me you didn't know where the line was.

Sure, why stop at 10%. Take a leaf out of bitcoin and let it drop 40% in 2 months.

And you're deliberately conflating two distinct and different things. We're not talking about the exchange rate between central bank monopoly money and bitcoin. We're talking about 10% inflation in USD. Can you tell me who I should have 'faith' in to write me a cheque for the $100 of buying power that's now missing?
(When it comes to bitcoin's price discovery process, it's averaged 214% appreciation pa over the course of 13 years. That's just an outcome of the adoption process).

The reality is that US dollar cash investment (i.e. plus deposit interest) has beaten inflation over the last century.
You can go with smoke and mirrors this way and that - it doesn't change the facts - here's a graphical representation of the buying power of the US dollar over time ->

Purchasing-Power-of-the-U.S.-Dollar-Over-Time.jpg



Ahh! I'm beginning to understand your lack of faith. You want a father figure you can trust to honour your dollars. Strange since you seem to drool at the lack of any central father figure for bitcoin.
So nobody is going to write me that cheque for the missing $100 of buying power it seems. We've all had our pockets picked then. Thanks for confirming.

All debt is based on faith.
You mean that fiat monetary policy is faith-based. Bitcoin's is not. It's rules based and it's monetary policy today, next month/year, decade is already known. You couldn't tell me how many dollars or euros have been issued today - let alone, tomorrow, next month, next year, etc.


One large dollop of Hope is required to hope this is a long term store of value.
We weren't talking about bitcoin's progress in establishing itself as a store of value - but this is the only mechanism you have in order to deflect away from what arose from Stewart's interview with the former Fed President....i.e. that by its very design, fiat money is faith based. It's monetary system is faith based. Fiat is the real ponzi and the real cult.
Actually if you watch the clip again you will note that Jon teased the guy that it was a fake. He responded by saying it was faith based. Jon rolled around laughing as he thought he said it was fake based.
I'm a few timezones away Duke and I can smell the desperation coming off that fairytale from here!

The first pre-requisite for an entity to be subject to "monetary policy" is that it is money.
Ah, it doesn't have a monetary policy? Say the following out loud, Duke:

"Alexa, what is bitcoin's current inflation rate?"


Now ask Alexa again - this time without covering your ears.
 
Now ask Alexa again - this time without covering your ears.
Alexa here @tecate
The price of a latte in bitcoin increased by 40% from November to January according to my latest info. I'm a humble gal but my bean counters tell me this is an annual inflation of hundreds of per cent. Not as bad as Zimbabwe fiat.
 
Alexa here @tecate
The price of a latte in bitcoin increased by 40% from November to January according to my latest info. I'm a humble gal but my bean counters tell me this is an annual inflation of hundreds of per cent. Not as bad as Zimbabwe fiat.


The Duke picking high points and low points to meet a certain narrative since 2017. :p

Interesting to see that in the Duchy of Marmalade annualised figures can be obtained over 61 days. Bitcoin has averaged 214% appreciation year on year over the past 13 years.

And of course, it was USD that we were focusing on - but you can't defend high priest Jay (and I guess Janet & Sleepy Joe get a say now also) without going on the attack elsewhere.

But we can do this all day long. Here's the diminishing value of the USD vs. Gold over time ->

[broken link removed]

( let me help you out though...I know you like to cherry pick timeframes - and yes when you have a look at it, you will find short periods when gold was just as volatile as bitcoin ).
 
@tecate You should take up that complaint of selective statistics with Alexa.
It is the stated aim of the ECB/FED to target inflation of 2% p.a. Over 100 years that is effectively reducing it to zero. Of course that is worse than gold. No sleight of hand here. But if it is your choice to use $ or € as a store of value, for which it is not intended, in fact together with interest (underpinned by Central Banks) it actually has kept its value.
If bitcoin had intrinsic value, like gold, well of course it would accrue value versus fiat just as Central Banks aimed that it would and were totally open about their intentions. Where's the scam?
Now when a high priest of the cult (JK) predicts a price of €515k per btc, well the stench of scam is overpowering. I am not accusing Saint Satoshi whoever she is of such base motivation. She was in fact quite transparent. If only, she fantasised, it could have intrinsic value.
 
Last edited:
@tecate It is the stated aim of the ECB/FED to target inflation of 2% p.a. Over 100 years that is effectively reducing it to zero. Of course that is worse than gold. No sleight of hand here.
Of course there's no slight of hand - that's why the metrics used to measure inflation were swapped out going back a few years and why I'm hearing that they're looking at doing something similar once again. That's why in another latin country recently, the smoothie I bought from a national chain in November cost X and in January, it was X+30%. That's the real world - not CPI.

But if it is your choice to use $ or € as a store of value, for which it is not intended, in fact together with interest (underpinned by Central Banks) it actually has kept its value.
If we're honest, traditionally ordinary people in Ireland have not had access (alongside the requisite knowledge) to any other store of value aside from property. Can you post a link to a statement from any of our Ministers of Finance warning the populace not to use euros as a store of value? Maybe Lagarde has told us that? Do you think that most ordinary people even understand inflation properly? And if you're going to start claiming that keeping yer yoyos down the post office beats inflation (as you've tried previously) - I'm sorry but I've no intention of hearing you out a second time on that.

Where's the scam?
We've been talking about a minimum 10% of personal wealth being summarily vapourised due to fiat monetary policy and you want to know where the scam is?


If bitcoin had intrinsic value, like gold, well of course it would accrue value versus fiat just as Central Banks aimed that it would and were totally open about their intentions.
You want to throw out facts once again. Over the course of the past 13 years, bitcoin has appreciated 214% pa against the global reserve currency. Totally open about their intentions? Pull the other one. See above - point to a statement from any central bank of your choosing calling on citizens NOT to hold their savings in sovereign currency. Just ONE example will do. You have a plethora of CBs to choose from.
I can give plenty of examples going the other direction if it helps. I've had experience of being forced to convert money into a national currency in the past. In recent months, the Turkish CB has been contriving to get people out of dollars and gold and into their monopoly money. There have been cases of forced conversions in the past - too many to mention.

Now when a high priest of the cult (JK) predicts a price of €515k per btc, well the stench of scam is overpowering.
What on earth are you talking about. Your buddy might have written an article about bitcoin - but all his energies are spent on working on a project that has nothing to do with bitcoin. Meanwhile, we had folks on here in early 2018 saying we'd never see $20k again - you were amongst them. I'd worry about your cognition if you think that someone making a price prediction or speculating on its future price as part of an informed and considered article he put together and that YOU brought to this discussion - you're now considering to be a 'scam'.

If only, she fantasised, it could have intrinsic value.
And if it doesn't, then you'll be proven right and I'll be proven wrong. In 2018, you (amongst others) assured us that it was done for and would never see $20k again. Not only has that confidence waned, but confidence in its demise is so weak - that if I give you a multi-decade timeline, you can't tell me when is a reasonable timeframe by which the digital asset will either be validated or invalidated as a store of value. To say that doesn't come across as sure-footed is understating it.

I'm quite happy to accept that it could fail but for those like you who can't even confirm a particular decade in which it's likely to have disappeared into the night, it seems like sour grapes to not accept that there's at least a percentile chance that it continues on its path to further adoption and maturity.
 
Fair play for the two of you lads keeping this going. I must say, I've listened to McWilliams podcast etc where yer man got a free pass to sell this.

I am none the wiser as to why this is a store of value. No explanation given as to why this store of value will beat inflation, however defined. There's a lot of waffle about finite supply, but that exists in the ether and nothing stopping bettercoin2# being established also with a finite issue.

I've spent a few weekends with an open mind trying to get this, but the more I look at it the more I see an increasingly aggressive sell to try and hook more people in, not restricted to just consumers influenced by superbowl ads but also people of influence so they won't legislate and collapse the pyramid.

This includes having people based in El Salvador of all places posting day and night to plug this thing.

Why would this asset be a store of value over any other?
 
Every thread I read on this just gets ruined

I think this is a very helpful forum for people and it would be great if we could discuss crypto (not just bitcoin) and be able to discuss decentralised finance and the options available to people without getting into pyramid scheme arguements regarding the entire space as a whole, obviously there are rugpulls but that's why its key to do your own research and know what your buying into.

it could be of great benefit to a lot of people to learn about decentralised finance options and the rates of interest you can receive (even just on stable coins for the risk averse).

There is so much to learn but I think people just arent aware of what's available to them. (Earlier in the thread we had Marc from a financial advisors firm outlining their research, no offence if your reading this Marc but I just dont think you understood the space or are aware of how it works outside centralised exchanges).

There has been multiple mentions of crypto having no intrinsic value, I ask you to get a crypto.com debit card and go see if it works in brown thomas or Penny's or anywhere else that you want to. Centralised exchanges should be used as an on/off ramp to decentralised exchanges.
 
Lesson on the ideal currency for a modern economy for slow learners.
it should retain enough value over the short term to be accepted as barter.
it should lose enough value over the medium term that people don’t HODL it.
That‘s a difficult act to pull off but after centuries of our developing civilisation we have managed to do it.
 
I've listened to McWilliams podcast etc where yer man got a free pass to sell this.
What free pass? McWilliams is a long way from becoming a proponent of bitcoin. He may have dropped a few of the objections through which he misunderstood it - but he still remains a sceptic. Whilst Dave likes to talk, I honestly don't think he was equipped to challenge him. Pretty frustrating that between him and his sidekick, they came out with a couple of objections after the event - which they could have challenged Saylor on.


I am none the wiser as to why this is a store of value. No explanation given as to why this store of value will beat inflation, however defined. There's a lot of waffle about finite supply, but that exists in the ether and nothing stopping bettercoin2# being established also with a finite issue.
If you believe that it doesn't have finite supply, then there's no discussion to be had. That argument was brought out in 2017 but not so much the last couple of years. If 'bettercoin' comes along, it will have to be 10x better to usurp bitcoin in the role that it's taking on. The usual example that's rolled out is Facebook usurping MySpace. The difference is that the market cap of MySpace was miniscule (comparatively) at the time and Facebook did have something significant in order to overcome them (optimised for mobile when myspace was desktop-based). Otherwise, if you think it could be usurped so easily, surely the same should have already happened to google, facebook, twitter, etc? It's incredibly difficult to deconstruct network effect.

I've spent a few weekends with an open mind trying to get this, but the more I look at it the more I see an increasingly aggressive sell to try and hook more people in, not restricted to just consumers influenced by superbowl ads but also people of influence so they won't legislate and collapse the pyramid.

So what's the difference between banks like JPMorgan, Citibank, Charles Schwab, etc taking out Superbowl ads vs. their equivalents in the crypto space? As regards the use of influence to make sure they don't legislate against it - you better believe it. Why would you expect them not to - given that this is the system that is setup already? This is the system that has been holding crypto back up until now - as those banks above (and many others) are embedded with the politicos in Washington.
A case in point. The current Chair of the SEC is ex-Goldman Sachs. The remit of the SEC is to protect the little guy. The only thing that Goldman Gary has done is approve a futures based bitcoin ETF (where his Wall Street chums make 10% in fees as those contracts are rolled over) and refusing to approve a spot-based bitcoin ETF - where ordinary investors wouldn't be exposed to those fees.

This includes having people based in El Salvador of all places posting day and night to plug this thing.

You really think that me posting here is propping up a $2 trillion + market? :D Have a listen to one of Mark Cuban's podcasts where he states that he only thinks there's oversized opportunity if he figures out that there's something in it whilst at the same time, there's major resistance to it. In terms of making bank, the longer there's resistance to the adoption of BTC and the longer and more drawn out that process takes, the greater the opportunity. Everyone will end up buying bitcoin at the price they deserve.


Why would this asset be a store of value over any other?

Because it possesses many of the qualities of what makes for a good store of value.
 
Last edited:
Back
Top