Been absent for a while. Excuse the splurge.
So, big picture/broad brush do you A) see any feasible solutions? B) think its either cut activity or go 'fried frog' on it?
I think the big problem with the way we look at climate change is that those making the loudest (and sometimes hysterical) noises are a) not proposing workable solutions, and b) not looking at both sides of the balance sheet: the downsides of climate change versus the very serious downsides of cutting energy use (or foregoing it in the case of developing nations). Without much of our modern energy use millions would die. Millions
do die for want of energy in the developing world but thankfully the situation is vastly improved over recent decades. Where is the evidence that things will be worse with climate change when you consider this balance?
Why did bio diesel (PPO - pure plant oil) not take off more? There was a crowd Elsbett in Germany that could modify your Volks, and a distributor Great Gas but not sure even they are using it anymore.
Fundamentally, the energy return on plant growth is small. Plants did not evolve to maximise sunlight-to-chemical efficiency. It's on the order of 0.1 to 2%, a small fraction of the efficiency of artificial solar power such as photovoltaics or concentrators. Both the US and Europe blend biofuels into what you buy at the pump, but two aspects of biofuels border on scandalous -- a) they use artificial fertilisers made with large quantities of natural gas, so some of the energy of biofuels is actually fossil fuel, and b) they use large areas of land that could be used for food production. They also contribute to plant monoculture and soil degradation and -- for crops like palm oil -- contribute to habitat degradation and destruction.
That's why the only viable green energy solution I see is Nuclear.
What are your views on Bill Gates's
Travelling Wave Reactor Nuclear Technology?
I agree. Wind and solar power have their place, but the energy sources are diffuse and therefore they have large land requirements and high capex costs. Desert solar with HVDC transmission could power the world but these are absolutely massive infrastructure projects that would take a century to implement. When technology optimists think about solutions they are generally only thinking about technology and not all the other things that have to come together to make projects (especially international ones) feasible and successful -- funding, guarantee of supply, political stability. Would you be any happier about your electricity coming from Libya or Mali than you are about your gas coming from Russia?
But when it comes to nuclear we face many of the same problems. Even conventional nuclear of the type we know how to build is a political hot potato. Regulatory restrictions massively increase project costs and timelines. The same is true of novel nuclear technology. I read that Gates's TWR technology has been massively slowed down by red tape. I love the idea itself. It's in the class of high burn-up breeder reactors using fertile (versus fissile) materials. It's similar to the high hopes for the Thorium fuel cycle, except using U-238. A reactor that needs no fuel rod maintenance or reprocessing for decades could, in principle, be completely locked down against proliferation concerns. However, novel fuel cycles typically need many years of testing so I wouldn't be holding my breath for anything to happen quickly. Until public fears are allayed and governments actively promote the technologies, I think nuclear will move at a snail's pace. The Green movement is too sold on the idea of wind and solar as panaceas, which they are not.
Ok uranium does not have a by product of carbon, but isnt it also a scare resource, a "fossil fuel" in the sense that we are going to run out of it too. Nuclear fusion or converting water to hydrogen and oxygen are, I suppose, the ultimate alchemy??
There's plenty of uranium, even for conventional use. The high burn-up sort of reaction in the TWR that Purple was talking about could use depleted uranium that the USA already has stockpiled. (It's a much more productive use than making artillery shell tips for tank busters). And depleted uranium is nothing more than the most common uranium isotope (U-238) which is over 99% of naturally occurring uranium and could be extracted from seawater. Thorium is even more abundant than uranium and is a constituent of a type of black sand on beaches in many parts of the world. Fusion, as you say, uses an even more unlimited fuel but fission could do just fine.
Converting water to hydrogen and oxygen is not a fuel
per se, but a way of storing energy. Proponents of the hydrogen economy sometimes forget this. It's like batteries -- just another way of storing chemical energy, but the energy has to come from somewhere first. Electrolysis is not a particularly efficient way of doing it either (around 80%), unless the energy would otherwise be wasted, e.g. with stranded wind.
In short, the solutions to climate change are;
1) Stop eating meat and dairy, or reduce it by 90%. That would free up are area of arable land the size of Africa.
2) Use that land to plant trees.
3) Embrace modern, safe, Nuclear Power.
4) Tax "fast fashion" so that the Penny's of this world disappear.
That takes care of most of the problem.
Unfortunately many "solutions" to global problems assume some sort of benign guiding hand. As I said, technological feasibility is not the only criterion for success. What about the economies that depend on carbon-intensive animal farming? Whose going to accept their territory being turned into a forest? Residents of Leitrim are already complaining about it. "Solutions" have to benefit local populations. Ethiopia has a massive tree planting program because it benefits local soil stability and water management. But you can't assume everyone is going to love the implications of global solutions. That's why I think carbon emissions will only be reduced when there are alternatives that are both cheaper and better than existing energy sources. And "better" is measured on multiple complex dimensions.
Just because she's off the wall it doesn't mean that Climate Change is any less real and that it isn't man made. The science deniers are using her to try to invalidate reality.
No, she has now become a focus of ridicule because of the obvious hypocrisy in some of her arguments, obviously being a young teenager she will not understand the complications and difficulties in trying to provide energy for an ever growing global population.
Will she travel to China and India to evangelise those countries to her movement, after all global warming is a global issue not just a western one, if she is going to have any consistency or longevity she will need to , otherwise she will face increasing criticism and become a passing fad.
This is the problem with only complaining, and not proposing solutions. A column in the Irish Times said the other day that groups like Extinction Rebellion need to stop pretending that climate change can be fixed by giving up burgers and cycling to work. The column went on to say, apparently unironically, that we would need a total change of lifestyle including rationing that had never been seen outside of wartime. Does anyone seriously think this is going to be acceptable to the general public? Think about it this way: the average household uses the energy equivalent a couple of dozen full time slaves. People in the part of the world without electricity do that slave labour themselves. It will take more than a couple of degrees of warming to make me give that up.
And now it looks like those clever Australians might have the energy storage problem cracked with their https://advances.sciencemag.org/content/6/1/eaay2757 (Lithium-Sulphur Batteries). It would also answer the question "Name one useful thing that Australia ever given the world?"
Novel energy technologies appear in the press almost every day. Most disappear without a trace. I see that one says it's good for 200 cycles, i.e. practically useless for most applications.