Brexit is still theoretical.
Eh, 'Transition period.' Chickens haven't come home to roost.It happened on 31-Jan 2020.
I read that there are only 12,000 people employed in the UK fishing industry and that lots of those are part-time, so you’re talking about less than 10,000 full-time roles.
Versus financial services which employs 1.2 million people.
The UK government are a shambles.
Hopefully you are right, but Dan O Brien was very pessimistic on radio this morning saying he expects a no deal now because of the politics on both sides. I think there will have to be movement on both sides though , suddenly the reality of brexit is starting to hit home especially here in Ireland, Michael martin was texting Johnson about trying to get a deal presumably he is also onto Macron and Merkel or else he is wasting his time because we are the meat in this sandwich.Looks like there will be another extension, the uncertainty continues.
...Dan O Brien was very pessimistic on radio this morning...
Cant rule out an accident with time pressures and other member states with the power to say NO once presented the deal however what I'm hearing on key components seems like a way for both to get what they want & fudge the rest. Health warning - This is as of the evening of Dec 15th.
(1) Principle of non-regression seems established and accepted by both sides - Singapore-On-Thames fear is removed..........EU can relax and allow quota free and full access for goods.
(2) Dynamic alignment demand has been removed by the EU.......the UK can be happy, its sovereignty is respected. They set their own rules no matter what moving forward and can choose their own destiny ( but just inherit and leave untouched the EU derived standards built up over 40 years) see no.1
(3) Divergence in standards in the future will have some competitive arbitration mechanism (NOT ECJ!!!) that will asses harm/benefit conferred by such divergence and allow for levies to be added in such instances to restore 'the level playing field' for European companies. BOTH Sovereignty & the Single Market is protected under this mechanism.
The above provides all a landing zone and a story for their political audiences.................future iterations of the UK government and EU will have to deal with questions of divergence.........in practice like so many other countries (with much smaller proportions of their trade exported to the EU than the UK) the Brits will effectively shadow EU standards with linguistic flourishes so they appear different, appear independently derived and give the appearance sovereignty.
AgreedFully agree with your sentiments on the "window dressing" going on, as by having (3), (2) is academic. Round and round we go, but it always boils down to the same basic issue, if the UK wants access to the EU market, tariff-free, they have to abide by the rules. This inevitably begs the question, if they have to abide by the rules (& worse, are no longer involved in deciding what they are), what was the point in leaving in the first place? That's too bitter a pill for the Tories to swallow at this stage, so we're down to how they put lipstick on a pig.
Bertie, renowned in his time for his negotiation skills, has thrown his tuppence worth in. He reckons the decision that the trade negotiations must finish on the 31st Dec was a mistake. He reckons that it can still be extended.
That is where my money will be, a postponement of talks to facilitate a push-back of the deadline.
If, after all, a 'no-deal' emerges is it won't be long before a new round of talks will be required to resolve the pronlems emerging from no-deal.
That'll be Bertie' I didn't have de dinner' Personally, I think de Brits, and by that I mean de English Nationalists, need to sit on the naughty step and reflect on what they've done for a while. Brexit is still theoretical. When the queues build up in Kent, when jobs losses in auto factories and the City start making an appearance on the news, when feta cheese goes up a whopping 55% as forecasted, then things might change.
Sadly, and I do think it is sad, its only Brits who can convince themselves that Brexit was a mistake, that no deal is a mistake, that the multi-millionaire toffs like Rees-Mogg, MP for thr 17th century and his ilk like Dyson and the bloke who owns Land Rover now racing for the exit, having sung Rule Britannia like they were at the last day of the Proms. The rolling out of the Royal Navy to defend British waters is a last roll of the dice. It would be hugely amusing of so much wasn't riding on it.
From an Irish perspective, it may be the painful but shock that redirects our trade to farther shores and maybe even hasten reunification, which will give poor Sammy Wilson apoplexy. It's an ill wind that blows no good.
The Brexiteers will go nuts if they announce another extension notwithstanding that is exactly what is required. I heard from a person in teh know that their GVMS system isn't even ready yet, it hasn't even been fully built never mind tested. The GVMS system issues the critical GMR (Goods Moverment Reference) to truck drivers without which they cannot board the ferry!!!
That suggests to me they need time and maybe there will be a stand-still or implementation period or something like that, anything but call it an extension
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