Brexit talks at the final but most important hurdle

[horusd]

That'll be Bertie' I didn't have de dinner' Personally, I think de Brits, and by that I mean de English Nationalists, need to sit on the naughty step and reflect on what they've done for a while. Brexit is still theoretical. When the queues build up in Kent, when jobs losses in auto factories and the City start making an appearance on the news, when feta cheese goes up a whopping 55% as forecasted, then things might change.

Sadly, and I do think it is sad, its only Brits who can convince themselves that Brexit was a mistake, that no deal is a mistake, that the multi-millionaire toffs like Rees-Mogg, MP for thr 17th century and his ilk like Dyson and the bloke who owns Land Rover now racing for the exit, having sung Rule Britannia like they were at the last day of the Proms. The rolling out of the Royal Navy to defend British waters is a last roll of the dice. It would be hugely amusing of so much wasn't riding on it.

From an Irish perspective, it may be the painful but shock that redirects our trade to farther shores and maybe even hasten reunification, which will give poor Sammy Wilson apoplexy. It's an ill wind that blows no good.

 

[Protocol]

Brexit is still theoretical.

It happened on 31-Jan 2020.

 

[horusd]

It happened on 31-Jan 2020.

Eh, 'Transition period.' Chickens haven't come home to roost.

 

[Paul O Mahoney]

Let them off the .... "gun boats" in the channel but no food on the table.

 

[Gordon Gekko]

I read that there are only 12,000 people employed in the UK fishing industry and that lots of those are part-time, so you’re talking about less than 10,000 full-time roles.

Versus financial services which employs 1.2 million people.

The UK government are a shambles.

 

[theo67]

I read that there are only 12,000 people employed in the UK fishing industry and that lots of those are part-time, so you’re talking about less than 10,000 full-time roles.

Versus financial services which employs 1.2 million people.

The UK government are a shambles.

Probably quite a number of that 12k are pesky foreigners from EU given that it is tough,low paid work.

 

[RedOnion]

There was an excellent series on BBC earlier this year that got behind the scenes of the UK fishing industry, and brought out some of the contradictions about the feelings towards the EU. 'Cornwall: this fishing life'.

As mentioned above, the industry is completely reliant on cheap EU labour, both working on trawlers and in processing plants. There's an excellent scene during the series where the fishermen, who are almost universally pro-Brexit, realise that their harbour redevelopment can't go ahead as it was going to be funded by the EU.

The whole focus on fishing has nothing to do with money or economics, but everything to do with hanging on to any remains of control possible for 'The Empire'.

 

[Saavy99]

Looks like there will be another extension, the uncertainty continues.

 

[Zebedee]

There’ll be extensions right up to the end of the year!

I can see the french fisherman blockading Calais if they don’t get their share of the fish. I suspect French govt may not be too bothered about it.

 

[joe sod]

Looks like there will be another extension, the uncertainty continues.

Hopefully you are right, but Dan O Brien was very pessimistic on radio this morning saying he expects a no deal now because of the politics on both sides. I think there will have to be movement on both sides though , suddenly the reality of brexit is starting to hit home especially here in Ireland, Michael martin was texting Johnson about trying to get a deal presumably he is also onto Macron and Merkel or else he is wasting his time because we are the meat in this sandwich.

 

[Hooverfish]

I think Denis Staunton https://www.irishtimes.com/opinion/...-his-course-for-a-brexit-trade-deal-1.4435704 and Tony Connelly (https://www.rte.ie/news/brexit/2020/1212/1183991-tony-connelly-brexit/ and https://www.rte.ie/news/brexit/2020/1214/1184260-brexit-talks-eu-uk/ ) have it nailed - a figleaf deal it is then... but possibly not until January.

 

[horusd]

Polly Toynbee also has a great article on the Great Waffler Boris. https://www.theguardian.com/comment...nson-brexit-deal-prime-minister-polls-no-deal

There will be skin and hair flying in the Jingoistic rags if and when the deal goes through. Personally, I think we need to move on from the Brits. De Gaulle was right in the '60's. The Brits are hostile to the idea of the EU.

 

[john luc]

When all is said and done truth will be the victim here and like the old communist governments usual declaration that their 5 year economic plans are a success when they were in truth failures, the UK governments will do the same and after 5 years declare it a success.

 

[nest egg]

...Dan O Brien was very pessimistic on radio this morning...

That's nearly understating it, he was apocalyptic... I like Dan but I think he's called it wrong on this occasion. The British & European economies have nearly 50 years of integration, there simply is no way they will walk away without a deal, especially the British, as, parking the economic damage, the Tories would face political damage from the electorate, who they've told, Brexit will have no real consequences.

I think the fish topic is a red herring, pardon the pun, a straw man they know they can get a victory from, albeit a pyrrhic one, as they quietly accept the on-going level playing field.

 

[letitroll]

Cant rule out an accident with time pressures and other member states with the power to say NO once presented the deal however what I'm hearing on key components seems like a way for both to get what they want & fudge the rest. Health warning - This is as of the evening of Dec 15th.

(1) Principle of non-regression seems established and accepted by both sides - Singapore-On-Thames fear is removed..........EU can relax and allow quota free and full access for goods.

(2) Dynamic alignment demand has been removed by the EU.......the UK can be happy, its sovereignty is respected. They set their own rules no matter what moving forward and can choose their own destiny ( but just inherit and leave untouched the EU derived standards built up over 40 years) see no.1

(3) Divergence in standards in the future will have some competitive arbitration mechanism (NOT ECJ!!!) that will asses harm/benefit conferred by such divergence and allow for levies to be added in such instances to restore 'the level playing field' for European companies. BOTH Sovereignty & the Single Market is protected under this mechanism.

The above provides all a landing zone and a story for their political audiences.................future iterations of the UK government and EU will have to deal with questions of divergence.........in practice like so many other countries (with much smaller proportions of their trade exported to the EU than the UK) the Brits will effectively shadow EU standards with linguistic flourishes so they appear different, appear independently derived and give the appearance sovereignty.

 

[nest egg]

Cant rule out an accident with time pressures and other member states with the power to say NO once presented the deal however what I'm hearing on key components seems like a way for both to get what they want & fudge the rest. Health warning - This is as of the evening of Dec 15th.

(1) Principle of non-regression seems established and accepted by both sides - Singapore-On-Thames fear is removed..........EU can relax and allow quota free and full access for goods.

(2) Dynamic alignment demand has been removed by the EU.......the UK can be happy, its sovereignty is respected. They set their own rules no matter what moving forward and can choose their own destiny ( but just inherit and leave untouched the EU derived standards built up over 40 years) see no.1

(3) Divergence in standards in the future will have some competitive arbitration mechanism (NOT ECJ!!!) that will asses harm/benefit conferred by such divergence and allow for levies to be added in such instances to restore 'the level playing field' for European companies. BOTH Sovereignty & the Single Market is protected under this mechanism.

The above provides all a landing zone and a story for their political audiences.................future iterations of the UK government and EU will have to deal with questions of divergence.........in practice like so many other countries (with much smaller proportions of their trade exported to the EU than the UK) the Brits will effectively shadow EU standards with linguistic flourishes so they appear different, appear independently derived and give the appearance sovereignty.

Fully agree with your sentiments on the "window dressing" going on, as by having (3), (2) is academic. Round and round we go, but it always boils down to the same basic issue, if the UK wants access to the EU market, tariff-free, they have to abide by the rules. This inevitably begs the question, if they have to abide by the rules (& worse, are no longer involved in deciding what they are), what was the point in leaving in the first place? That's too bitter a pill for the Tories to swallow at this stage, so we're down to how they put lipstick on a pig.

 

[letitroll]

Fully agree with your sentiments on the "window dressing" going on, as by having (3), (2) is academic. Round and round we go, but it always boils down to the same basic issue, if the UK wants access to the EU market, tariff-free, they have to abide by the rules. This inevitably begs the question, if they have to abide by the rules (& worse, are no longer involved in deciding what they are), what was the point in leaving in the first place? That's too bitter a pill for the Tories to swallow at this stage, so we're down to how they put lipstick on a pig.

Agreed

Likewise if you read the history of the UK in Europe Boris’s much smarter political forefathers figured this out back in the 1970’s......they were always Euroskeptics.......but realized that it was better to be at the table shaping the conversation than outside dealing with the consequences of the decisions your largest trading partners and security ally’s are making.

UK had in IMO the best of all worlds- they had retained their monetary independence, had access to the world’s largest single market and were the deciding vote in the three way German-UK-French European axis . Their strategic importance globally was enhanced by being the key interface by which the United States interacted/influenced European economic policy and by extension a linch pin of the NATO alliance.

All of the above is greatly diminished - the UK through EU membership was a nation punching above its weight...... now they’ll be punching exactly at their weight.

 

[Sadim]

Bertie, renowned in his time for his negotiation skills, has thrown his tuppence worth in. He reckons the decision that the trade negotiations must finish on the 31st Dec was a mistake. He reckons that it can still be extended.
That is where my money will be, a postponement of talks to facilitate a push-back of the deadline.
If, after all, a 'no-deal' emerges is it won't be long before a new round of talks will be required to resolve the pronlems emerging from no-deal.

The Brexiteers will go nuts if they announce another extension notwithstanding that is exactly what is required. I heard from a person in teh know that their GVMS system isn't even ready yet, it hasn't even been fully built never mind tested. The GVMS system issues the critical GMR (Goods Moverment Reference) to truck drivers without which they cannot board the ferry!!!

That suggests to me they need time and maybe there will be a stand-still or implementation period or something like that, anything but call it an extension

 

[Sadim]

That'll be Bertie' I didn't have de dinner' Personally, I think de Brits, and by that I mean de English Nationalists, need to sit on the naughty step and reflect on what they've done for a while. Brexit is still theoretical. When the queues build up in Kent, when jobs losses in auto factories and the City start making an appearance on the news, when feta cheese goes up a whopping 55% as forecasted, then things might change.

Sadly, and I do think it is sad, its only Brits who can convince themselves that Brexit was a mistake, that no deal is a mistake, that the multi-millionaire toffs like Rees-Mogg, MP for thr 17th century and his ilk like Dyson and the bloke who owns Land Rover now racing for the exit, having sung Rule Britannia like they were at the last day of the Proms. The rolling out of the Royal Navy to defend British waters is a last roll of the dice. It would be hugely amusing of so much wasn't riding on it.

From an Irish perspective, it may be the painful but shock that redirects our trade to farther shores and maybe even hasten reunification, which will give poor Sammy Wilson apoplexy. It's an ill wind that blows no good.

Cracking observations and I couldn't agree more. The bit I am surprised at though is the silence from influential business groups like the CBI or The City (13% of UK GDP!)

 

[Allpartied]

The Brexiteers will go nuts if they announce another extension notwithstanding that is exactly what is required. I heard from a person in teh know that their GVMS system isn't even ready yet, it hasn't even been fully built never mind tested. The GVMS system issues the critical GMR (Goods Moverment Reference) to truck drivers without which they cannot board the ferry!!!

That suggests to me they need time and maybe there will be a stand-still or implementation period or something like that, anything but call it an extension

Brexit is really a political issue. There is no logical reason for it, from an economic or business or commercial point of view. So for that reason the negotiators ( particularly the British negotiators) will have to judge the political impact of another delay. Like a plane lumbering down the runway, with a broken engine, there is a point of no return. You have to take off and deal with the problems in the air. I get the feeling that Brexit is too far down the political runway and they will have to go for it this time. The calculation might be that they have to get on with it, and then deal with the consequences as they occur.