Brexit talks at the final but most important hurdle

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joe sod

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It seems that this is the real thing now with regard to the Brexit talks, suddenly fisheries largely dismissed as not that economically important is now on course to derail the whole thing, France wants more access to UK waters and has threatened to veto any deal if it does not get its way. Even Ireland is now criticising the French for potentially jeapordising the deal.
As for environmentalim and Paris agreements the French throw all that out the window when it comes to carving up resources, they want to keep fishing as much as before and if they cant do it in Uk waters they will do it in Irish waters and there is nothing we can do about it. Alot of environmentalism is really just window dressing as is now being proven. The same thing is happening in Africa in the scramble for rare earth metals that are vital in the manufacture of electric cars.
 
I was listening to George Eustice, British minister for fish on Sophy Ridge.
The issue seems to be a British insistence on having full sovereignty over its territorial waters and that signing a treaty that permits EU vessels then sovereignty is ceded. Which from a Brexit perspective would be a capitulation of the British government.
It was mentioned, but not confirmed, that Britain was offering a 3yr status quo on fisheries. That access to British waters would be reviewed every 3yrs but that ultimately sovereignty must reside with the British and that they cannot possibly cede fishing rights in perpetuity in treaty form.

On the face of it doesn't seem unreasonable until it is factored that UK is apparently ceding authority on everything else by agreeing to 'a level playing' concept with EU standards and regulations in order to have access in perpetuity to the SM.

It looks more like the fishing issue and access to waters has become a symbol of sovereignty 'Britannia rules the waves' if you will. If Johnson cedes sovereignty here he will not have delivered a true Brexit.

What a bunch of idiots.
 
I read somewhere yesterday that fishing represents 0.04 % (not even 0.1%) of the UK economy. Brexit was never about economics - if it was it wouldn't have happened. It strikes me as the inevitable outcome of 45 years of anti-EU ranting from the British right-wing press, and it is needs to be worked out of the UK political and social system before anything changes.

In a sense the UK needs to settle in its new place somewhere down from it's former place in the world, and it needs to deal with that as an actual reality. The chickens of Brexit need to come home to roost, the lessons of the folly of Brexit be absorbed (assuming that can happen, rather than a blame game with IRL firmly in the sights) before anything changes. When you're fed lie after lie about Europe (bendy banana's anyone?) and you are fed a lie about the importance of your country on the world stage which you might dearly love to believe - it will take some time for a few reality pennies to drop, for you to really wake up and smell the coffee, to mix a few metaphors. The trouble is, there will be real blood on the floor, but it won't be Farage's or Tory toffs like Rees-Mogg, it'll be in bleak places like Scunthorpe or Grimsby, and formerly wealthy places like the City that take the hit. There seems an inevitability to this painful process. Up to now, the effects of Brexit have been fairly under the radar, but that will change very quickly after the transition period, and the least of those worries will be longer queues at airports whenever COVID goes away.
 
This is all just bluster on the British side. For domestic consumption they need to make it look like they've pulled off a last-minute victory.

The EU don't care all that much about the UK anymore. They hold all the cards.

Amazed at how many fall for this.
 
read somewhere yesterday that fishing represents 0.04 % (not even 0.1%) of the UK economy. Brexit was never about economics - if it was it wouldn't have happened.

That statistic has to be wrong, that the whole UK fishing industry is only .04% of the economy !!!, I don't know where you read that but it couldn't be correct. I know that fishing is still small in the overall scheme of things especially compared to the city of London financial markets. Fishing is still very important because it is a natural resource, it is food and it is an indigenous industry, it has strategic importance. If it was the case that fishing was so negligible in monetary terms why are the French threatening to veto any agreement if they don't maintain access to UK waters. It's also the case that the UK fishing industry is a lot smaller than its potential (ala Ireland s) because of the common fisheries policy.
 
For me the movement of Sterling is a good measure of likelihood of a deal. Down 0.5 pc this morning.
 
That statistic has to be wrong, that the whole UK fishing industry is only .04% of the economy !!!, I don't know where you read that but it couldn't be correct. I know that fishing is still small in the overall scheme of things especially compared to the city of London financial markets. Fishing is still very important because it is a natural resource, it is food and it is an indigenous industry, it has strategic importance. If it was the case that fishing was so negligible in monetary terms why are the French threatening to veto any agreement if they don't maintain access to UK waters. It's also the case that the UK fishing industry is a lot smaller than its potential (ala Ireland s) because of the common fisheries policy.

The statistic is correct. Two retaillers announced closures in the last week (Debanhams & Top Shop I think). There are more people employed by those two than the entire fishing industry in the UK

The problem with the food / natural resource argument is that most of the UK catch is exported to Europe. There is very little demand in the UK for the natural catch in UK waters. Most of it goes to France (which is why France is interested) and Spain. Most of the consumption in the UK is imported.

Also - a lot of the UK quota was sold by UK fishermen to Europeans - which is why they are so restricted in quotas. They sold them
 
The statistic is correct. Two retaillers announced closures in the last week (Debanhams & Top Shop I think). There are more people employed by those two than the entire fishing industry in the UK

Yep, it's up to 0.5% at best, and apparently dipped to 0.12% last year. This is just another example of an area that is simple for people to understand, and so it is exploited in the mass media.
 
The statistic is correct. Two retaillers announced closures in the last week (Debanhams & Top Shop I think). There are more people employed by those two than the entire fishing industry in the UK

The problem with the food / natural resource argument is that most of the UK catch is exported to Europe. There is very little demand in the UK for the natural catch in UK waters. Most of it goes to France (which is why France is interested) and Spain. Most of the consumption in the UK is imported.

Also - a lot of the UK quota was sold by UK fishermen to Europeans - which is why they are so restricted in quotas. They sold them

That's what makes the whole thing so crazy. They want complete control over their fishing waters but if they do and there's a no deal, they won't be able to sell their fish to the European market as it will be too expensive with tariffs, so the catch will rot.

They've had 4.5 years to work on an agreement but instead of getting to work, the UK government has flaffed about and made bold gestures that would never be workable or accepted by the other side. Even from a logistical point of view, they are completely unprepared which is unbelievable for an island nation that ships everything by lorry and ferry. The customs app is being launched in Christmas week in English only when most of the lorry drivers aren't English and won't understand it.

They seem to think that the EU needs them more than they need us. I will be looking on with interest to see how this unfolds.
 
That statistic has to be wrong, that the whole UK fishing industry is only .04% of the economy !!!,

It is actually about 0.1%, I checked it again recently.

It is an industry that is very easy to understand, however, which is why it tends to get oversized attention.
 
The article quoting the 0.04% was in the Irish Times at the weekend, I'll see if I can locate it. I think the mistake in looking at this issue is to view it thru a logical lens. This, it seems to me, is a gut level, emotional and reactionary event fueled by years of right-wing Tory -press yabbering. It is not a little ironic that the Tories who championed the Single Market under Thatcher seem so eager to take their ball and walk off the pitch crying about the dead-hand of the EU keeping them from the sunlit uplands where destiny awaits. I really don't wish it on the British, but as the old lad in the Simpsons is fond of sayin "... storm's acoming."
 
It's just like all the hype about the EU banning bendy bananas! The truth is secondary.
This from Fintan O'Toole in the Irish Times "...And the hard reality is that it is the EU that owns the pitch (the single market) and sets the rules. Britain ultimately has to decide whether it wants to play there or carry on with its own eccentric, inward and terminally inconclusive game. "
 
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And while they fight over fisheries, there's no mention of financial services which represents 6.9% of UK GDP. This is an industry that has already seen lots of business move to other EU countries as the businesses simply couldn't wait for the incompetent UK government to get a deal in place. Imagine running a multi billion dollar financial company and having to wait on Johnson to figure something out, with just over 3 weeks to go? Hearing him say "I would just say to everybody – be in good cheer, there are great options ahead for our country on any view. " wouldn't fill me with confidence, it's just bluster.
 
I see Boris Johnson travelling to Brussels tomorrow to meet Ursula Von der lyon for dinner, I think this is a very good thing hopefully this can break the impasse. Im sure the new spitting image will have a good skit for this dinner, one thing for sure they will not be having for dinner and that is fish :)
 
It will be interesting to see the reaction of the more extreme Tory press, and of course, Farage, who is the tail now wagging the Tory dog. I can;t imagine they'll be particularly happy.
 
Nothing much came of that meeting so maybe a deal is not to be done afterall. If a no deal turns out to be the case and if EU fishing is barred from UK waters well then all those quotas will be concentrated in irish waters, if that turns out to be the case then the total EU fishing quotas need to be cut in accordance with the fish that are not being taken out of the UK waters. If the EU does not do something like this well then it makes a mockery of all of the environmental directives that they have introduced in the last decade.
 
The Brits are playing a very weak game. It stuck me when Johnson was complaining about the EU wanting an evolution clause that they are acting that it is only a one way provision. If the UK change standards or conditions, they will want the imported goods and services to meet their standards too. Or do they only think about goods they are exporting? Or they haven't thought that far ahead to think that future conditions would change? Having a prime minister who is untrustworthy and "is not a details guy" is a big problem for the UK when trying to negotiate a hugely detailed deal. The EU will want everything confirmed in writing as Johnson is so untrustworthy, if it's not signed, sealed and delivered, he'll just go back on it.
 
The Brits are playing a very weak game.
I noticed that alright, Boris had the hang dog look about him last night when standing beside Ursula, the suit was a bit frumpy. Its like he did that on purpose , its like he wanted to come across as humble and amenable last night because he was the one travelling to meet her in Brussels. However I think it is a mistake not to give him something because everyone needs a deal especially Ireland. If the UK crashes out it will be damaging for the EU aswell the dissenting voices of Poland and Hungary will become stronger and will just fuel the narrative there that the EU is another over bearing unyielding Soviet Union (albeit without an army but thats what Macron wants).
 
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