"Brexit not a major issue for true investors" - Rory Gillen

odyssey06

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1,621
So, let me get this straight... the leader of the opposition campaigned to stay but secretly wanted to leave, so his party held a non-binding vote to shame him into resigning so someone else could lead the campaign to ignore the result of the non-binding referendum which many people now think was just angry people trying to shame politicians into seeing they'd all done nothing to help them.
Meanwhile, the man who campaigned to leave because he hoped losing would help him win the leadership of his party, accidentally won and ruined any chance of leading because the man who thought he couldn't lose, did - but resigned before actually doing the thing the vote had been about. The man who'd always thought he'd lead next, campaigned so badly that everyone thought he was lying when he said the economy would crash - and he was, but it did, but he's not resigned, but, like the man who lost and the man who won, also now can't become leader. Which means the woman who quietly campaigned to stay but always said she wanted to leave is likely to become leader instead.
Which means she holds the same view as the leader of the opposition but for opposite reasons, but her party's view of this view is the opposite of the opposition's. And the opposition aren't yet opposing anything because the leader isn't listening to his party, who aren't listening to the country, who aren't listening to experts or possibly paying that much attention at all. However, none of their opponents actually want to be the one to do the thing that the vote was about, so there's not yet anything actually on the table to oppose anyway. And if no one ever does do the thing that most people asked them to do, it will be undemocratic and if any one ever does do it, it will be awful.
Clear?
Only Nixon could go to China.
 

Rory Gillen

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248
That's exactly my point. If their view is that investing is about the long term and this stuff doesn't matter in the long-term, why invest energy in activities (the weekly market commentary) than simply distract from (and possibly hinder) the core message?
We simply make the point that as we can't predict or control economics or politics, we assess investments on the basis of their specific merits. If, for example, I choose to invest in Berkshire Hathaway, I do so on the basis of whether its run by competent people, has a good business, is not financially strained and offers decent value at the time of purchase. If we were to try and take economic and politics into account - which clearly influence the general direction of the US stock market in the near-term - we'd probably never make a decision.

In that regard, GillenMarkets Investment Newsletter service simply aims to add value to would-be investors where it can - at the stock or fund specific level. The Investment Newsletter industry is a huge one in the US; we are the only one in Ireland. It's my firm belief that most do-it-yourself private investors are better off with a source of independent and reputable investment advice (we hope we are that). If you are more confident in your ability to make an investment decision by using a service such as ours then you are better placed to make considerable savings by using a low-cost, online stockbrokers account rather than the higher cost advisory accounts. We offer a 14-day free trial so that one can check if the service is for them before having to pay.

Recall that despite all the economic and political turmoil in the US over the past five decades since the late 1960s, US corporate earnings have climbed at 6.4% compound per annum. That growth in earnings drove similar growth in US stock markets. Add in the annual dividend income from the US stock market over that same timeline of circa 3.0% and you get to the 9% odd annual return from the markets one so often hears quoted. Along the way, it paid to keep it simple and assess the merits or otherwise of individual stocks and funds rather than complicating it with politics and economics.

Our Featured Article titled 'Bexit No Issue for True Investors' aimed to make that point. And the point remains valid. Brexit may have an impact on the stocks and funds I listed in that article, but it's unlikely to have any lasting impact, in my view.

The GillenMarkets newsletter and website offering simply aims to assist investors in getting the returns available.

Many contributors to AAM (i.e. this website) seem to think that everyone is better off doing the investing for themselves. Maybe some can, but I'd argue that many cannot. I can see nothing but positives in a service aimed at assisting those that would prefer some assistance along the way!

I'm not hear to promote our offering, but uninformed opinions which seem to dominate this AAM site call for a fair response.

Rory Gillen, Founder, GillenMarkets
 
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joe sod

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727
There has been alot of talk on other threads here about overvalued stock markets. Therefore there is a justification for not investing and staying in cash. When we see the multiple corrections over the last year with China crisis and now Brexit this seems to be sensible. However when you look at european stock markets many are still lower than they were a decade ago, can you really say that european stock markets are overvalued!. Yes it has been painful to be invested in europe over the last decade especially if buying in US dollars. But does anyone really believe that some of the most advanced economies on the planet are going to go down the toilet because of Brexit or EU turmoil. Also we have the emerging economies of eastern europe where there is going to be alot of growth. In many cases you could argue that it is more diverse than the US and when the political problems are sorted, it could really surprise on the upside. We all know that markets love to fall in love with a notion for a long time until they realise that it is no longer true and then quickly forget that notion. Does anyone have any informed opinions on investing in european markets today
 

cremeegg

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3,074
Is it bigger than 9/11 for a true globally diversified investor?

Or bigger than the credit crisis?

Of course not.

If you're trying to make a few bob for your summer holidays punting Bank of Ireland, then it's huge, but in such circumstances, you are a speculator rather than an investor.
I dont understand where you are coming from here. The short term impact of Brexit on Sterling and shares is not what all the fuss is about. If that was all there was to it then you would be right.

However Brexit means that the Uk is now going to set about dismantling its existing trading infrastructure, all the legal, economic, and cultural supports that underpin its existing trade and replace all that which who knows what.

It may all work out for the best, they may develop new better trading arrangements, but that is in the realm of hope. What is reality is that they are going to dismantle the existing arrangements.

And the uncertainty will drag on for at least two years.

The US was in recovery mode a week after 9/11. Brexit will not even happen for two years. It will be an incomparably bigger deal in terms of trade.
 

cremeegg

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3,074
Is it bigger than 9/11 for a true globally diversified investor?

Or bigger than the credit crisis?

Of course not.

If you're trying to make a few bob for your summer holidays punting Bank of Ireland, then it's huge, but in such circumstances, you are a speculator rather than an investor.
I dont understand where you are coming from here. The short term impact of Brexit on Sterling and shares is not what all the fuss is about. If that was all there was to it then you would be right.

However Brexit means that the Uk is now going to set about dismantling its existing trading infrastructure, all the legal, economic, and cultural supports that underpin its existing trade and replace all that which who knows what.

It may all work out for the best, they may develop new better trading arrangements, but that is in the realm of hope. What is reality is that they are going to dismantle the existing arrangements.

And the uncertainty will drag on for at least two years.

The US was in recovery mode a week after 9/11. Brexit will not even happen for two years. It will be an incomparably bigger deal in terms of trade.
 

cremeegg

Frequent Poster
Messages
3,074
Our Featured Article titled 'Bexit No Issue for True Investors' aimed to make that point. And the point remains valid. Brexit may have an impact on the stocks and funds I listed in that article, but it's unlikely to have any lasting impact, in my view.
You may well be right, but to compare it to a months employment figures is in my opinion ludicrous, and you would do more for your own credibility by admitting as much,

I'm not hear to promote our offering, but uninformed opinions which seem to dominate this AAM site call for a fair response.
rather than making smart remarks about uninformed opinions.
 

Gordon Gekko

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3,680
I dont understand where you are coming from here. The short term impact of Brexit on Sterling and shares is not what all the fuss is about. If that was all there was to it then you would be right.

However Brexit means that the Uk is now going to set about dismantling its existing trading infrastructure, all the legal, economic, and cultural supports that underpin its existing trade and replace all that which who knows what.

It may all work out for the best, they may develop new better trading arrangements, but that is in the realm of hope. What is reality is that they are going to dismantle the existing arrangements.

And the uncertainty will drag on for at least two years.

The US was in recovery mode a week after 9/11. Brexit will not even happen for two years. It will be an incomparably bigger deal in terms of trade.
Where I'm coming from is that seismic events happen reasonably regularly, and a globally diversified investor with a medium to long term time horizon has nothing to worry about in respect of Brexit.
 

cremeegg

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3,074
Where I'm coming from is that seismic events happen reasonably regularly, and a globally diversified investor with a medium to long term time horizon has nothing to worry about in respect of Brexit.
I see Brexit not so much as a seismic event as a change in direction.

Since the 1950s the world has moved in the direction of greater openness and increased trade. There have been many interruptions in this progress, oil price spikes and crashes, debt crises in Latin America, the Far East, Russia and others. Wars, terrorist attacks etc. All of these things damaged trade, but the broad thrust of the economic story was more trade and increasing wealth.

Brexit is the first conscious move away in the other direction. If it does not spread, indeed if Britain thinks better of it and negotiates its way into the EEA or even reverses the decision, then Brexit may come to be seen as a blip on the road toward greater prosperity.

It seems to me that forces have been unleashed that don't care about trade and will happily wreck prosperity for greater "control".

If this attitude infects other EU countries or takes power in the US, I believe it probably has majority public support there already, then far from being a blip, Brexit is a harbinger of disaster.
 

joe sod

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Messages
727
The brexiteers claimed that they were breaking from the eu to allow them to trade freely with the world outside the constraints of the eu. Therefore Europe in their opinion was a deteriorating old world system holding Britain back. Clearly the markets and the world do not agree with this viewpoint. Maybe brexit is the shock to wake Europe out of its slumber for the last 40 years.
 
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