"Brexit not a major issue for true investors" - Rory Gillen

Fella

Frequent Poster
Messages
523
If there is no risk there is no return. I am just buying as normal will buy on 1st of July as that is when I am next due to buy. Ignore everything and save yourself years of thinking.
 

elacsaplau

Frequent Poster
Messages
861
I get the idea that it's a questionable pursuit trying to time the market and that markets are a random walk and all that. What I don't get is someone selling a market commentary service restricting such commentary to saying that important current events are unlikely to have significant long-term implications. If this is true and possibly it is, then why the heck do you provide a market commentary service in the first place?
 

aristotle

Frequent Poster
Messages
804
I get the idea that it's a questionable pursuit trying to time the market and that markets are a random walk and all that. What I don't get is someone selling a market commentary service restricting such commentary to saying that important current events are unlikely to have significant long-term implications. If this is true and possibly it is, then why the heck do you provide a market commentary service in the first place?
As a subscriber to Gillen Markets newsletter\website there is more than just general market commentary. There is analysis of various stocks, investment trusts, ETFs etc and various investment approaches, suggestions on buys\sells etc.

The overall Gillen Markets approach is to assess and find value in stocks\funds. It isn't a market commentary newsletter service.
 

elacsaplau

Frequent Poster
Messages
861
Aristocle,

From the Gillen website - the first service listed is the weekly update which is described as:

Each week we review what the market is saying about the latest news and events. Insights are rarely gained from reading newspapers as their job is to sell you the news. Read GillenMarkets weekly comment where you'll find out what the market is saying and what investors should do about it.

I think there is some validity in what I said, no?!
 

aristotle

Frequent Poster
Messages
804
I suppose Gillen Markets can answer for themselves but seems they are saying long term these events don't matter much. Short term they do, so I suppose that's why they comment on the market on their weekly newsletter.
 

elacsaplau

Frequent Poster
Messages
861
I suppose Gillen Markets can answer for themselves but seems they are saying long term these events don't matter much. Short term they do, so I suppose that's why they comment on the market on their weekly newsletter.
That's exactly my point. If their view is that investing is about the long term and this stuff doesn't matter in the long-term, why invest energy in activities (the weekly market commentary) than simply distract from (and possibly hinder) the core message?
 

Gordon Gekko

Frequent Poster
Messages
4,477
While comparing brexit to the russian revolution is certainly over the top, things indeed do happen.



A well diversified portfolio in St Petersburg, Shanghai, and Berlin were all wiped out in the 20th century.

The idea that a "diversified investment portfolio has always done fine through whatever nastiness the world throws up" is only true if you confine your attention to those parts of the world that have not undergone a seismic shift in the basis of their legal and economic systems.

Brexit by itself is a seminal event to quote S&P, the political turmoil that seems to be engulfing the UK, may pass but it may do considerable damage before it does.
They would not be well diversified portfolios because of their geographical concentration.

A well diversified portfolio has always done fine in the medium to long term.
 

cremeegg

Frequent Poster
Messages
3,351
They would not be well diversified portfolios because of their geographical concentration.

A well diversified portfolio has always done fine in the medium to long term.
The effects of Brexit may be felt well beyond Britain. And if Trump is elected the effects will be felt around the world.
 

Gordon Gekko

Frequent Poster
Messages
4,477
The effects of Brexit may be felt well beyond Britain. And if Trump is elected the effects will be felt around the world.
In the short term!

But in the medium to long term, it's less relevant.

9/11, the Cuban Missile Crisis, etc...
 

Rory Gillen

Frequent Poster
Messages
248
So it is a good article?

I am very confused now.

Brendan
Brendan, the article I put out aimed to make a simple point. We all make investment decisions in different ways. Buffett never takes politics or the economic variables into account. Given his record, few will argue with that and his approach works for us (not that we are Buffett, far from it, in fact). Rather, everyone needs a framework for making decisions if just to assist in keeping emotions out of it. Our way is to understand the specific risks that we can control in stocks and funds we research and recommend. And I provided three examples of that thinking in the article so that it was useful in a practical way. Some may not agree with our investment process, and that's fine. We are all different. But the key point is whether we offer a sensible way to making decisions and whether we are independent in our views. If a reader thinks so, we may end up with a new subscriber to our website (and we are always looking for new subscribers) or an investment client. My Featured Articles are a way for us to promote ourselves. After all, we have Ireland's only (fully regulated) investment newsletter.

Rory Gillen
Founder, GillenMarkets
 

Brendan Burgess

Founder
Messages
41,550
Hi Rory

I was asking another poster that question as it appeared to me that he said it was a poor article, yet seemed to agree with its content.

I think it's a very good article.

I often put up links to your articles as they are often thought provoking.

Brendan
 

cremeegg

Frequent Poster
Messages
3,351
The article suggests that Brexit is comparable in effect to a months employment figures.

That is simply ludicrous.

For an alternative view I suggest Martin Wolf, hardly an alarmist.

http://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/martin-wolf-brexit-will-change-uk-economy-and-not-for-the-better-1.2698415

"The UK , Europe, the west and the world are damaged. The UK is diminished and will, quite possibly, end up divided. Europe has lost its second-biggest and most outward-looking power.

The hinge between the EU and the English-speaking powers has been snapped. This is quite probably the most significant event in British history since the second world war. It could mark an important moment in the West’s retreat from globalisation."
 

odyssey06

Frequent Poster
Messages
2,626
Not sure about Wolf's article... he seems to have a mindset that the only 'actor' in the drama is Britain without even considering why Britain got to this point.
He did not want Britain to join the Euro, yet realistically, sooner or later the Euro would split the UK from EU... the 'hinge' can only take so much strain.
If it was so important for all concerned for Britain to remain in the EU, why no real recognition during Cameron's re-negotiations? Why no criticism of EU for not doing more to accomodate Britain?

Is it really more significant than Suez, Britain calling in the IMF and devaluing sterling, the election of Margaret Thatcher, Britain being forced out of ERM?

I think David McWilliams makes a lot more sense here given that he seems to be able to consider the reactions of various British factions and various EU factions.
http://www.independent.ie/opinion/columnists/david-mcwilliams/calm-down-the-brexit-referendum-result-is-not-a-21stcentury-sarajevo-34842130.html
 
Last edited:

Gordon Gekko

Frequent Poster
Messages
4,477
Is it bigger than 9/11 for a true globally diversified investor?

Or bigger than the credit crisis?

Of course not.

If you're trying to make a few bob for your summer holidays punting Bank of Ireland, then it's huge, but in such circumstances, you are a speculator rather than an investor.
 

triggs

Registered User
Messages
10
It is true that Stocks profit over time.I would argue that the assumpions made to assess company risk for FTSE companies have changed .Portfolios concentrated on the FTSE now face a more uncertain future and their risk profile should be revisited and adjustments made accordingly.In answer to your Question-no.
 

shtyage2

Registered User
Messages
1
Issues identified as important by voters who said they were likely to vote leave were headed by the number of immigrants coming into Britain (49%), Britain's ability to make its own laws (30%), the impact on Britain's economy (25%), the cost of EU immigration on Britain's welfare system (16%), impact on public services/housing (11%), the number of refugees coming to Britain to claim asylum (10%), Britain's ability to trade with countries in the European Union (9%), cost of EU membership fees (9%), regulations by the European Union on British businesses (8%), the impact on British jobs (7%)
 

Marc

Frequent Poster
Messages
1,133
So, let me get this straight... the leader of the opposition campaigned to stay but secretly wanted to leave, so his party held a non-binding vote to shame him into resigning so someone else could lead the campaign to ignore the result of the non-binding referendum which many people now think was just angry people trying to shame politicians into seeing they'd all done nothing to help them.

Meanwhile, the man who campaigned to leave because he hoped losing would help him win the leadership of his party, accidentally won and ruined any chance of leading because the man who thought he couldn't lose, did - but resigned before actually doing the thing the vote had been about. The man who'd always thought he'd lead next, campaigned so badly that everyone thought he was lying when he said the economy would crash - and he was, but it did, but he's not resigned, but, like the man who lost and the man who won, also now can't become leader. Which means the woman who quietly campaigned to stay but always said she wanted to leave is likely to become leader instead.

Which means she holds the same view as the leader of the opposition but for opposite reasons, but her party's view of this view is the opposite of the opposition's. And the opposition aren't yet opposing anything because the leader isn't listening to his party, who aren't listening to the country, who aren't listening to experts or possibly paying that much attention at all. However, none of their opponents actually want to be the one to do the thing that the vote was about, so there's not yet anything actually on the table to oppose anyway. And if no one ever does do the thing that most people asked them to do, it will be undemocratic and if any one ever does do it, it will be awful.

Clear?
 
Top