Brexit and the Border

Someone sent me on the daily mail editorial for today. It's very funny. The daily mail is actually backing the agreement. We are now at whole new levels of farce!

My favourite bit.

'Having toiled for more than two years against daunting odds to secure a Brexit deal which honoured the referendum result, Theresa May might at least have hoped for the support of her own side for her Stakhanovite efforts — possibly even an ounce or two of gratitude.'

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/...s-appalled-fractious-fighting-Tory-Party.html
 
Sunny that was a really heartening read from what I was brought up to believe was a Tory rag. I liked this quote in particuar; I wouldn't be too sure that this will in the end be rejected by the Commons. If the British Tory press who effectively won the referendum were to follow the lead of the DM things could change.
 

Some turnaround for the mail isn't it The best bit is the comments under it. They are hilarious.

I agree with you about the Commons. If you had asked me yesterday morning, I would have said no chance. But now..... If there wasn't a leadership challenge yesterday, there won't be. I don't think any of them REALLY want the job right now. The DUP will be bought off (If Sinn Fein had any sense, they would be taking their seats in Westminister to negate their bargaining power) and I reckon there are more than a few labour supporters who would be more than willing to support it even if a few conservatives walk.
 
Sunny said:
If Sinn Fein had any sense, they would be taking their seats in Westminister to negate their bargaining power
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It is simply not certain (and arguably not even probable) that Sinn Fein taking their seats in Westminster will be a net positive in support of the deal. I am persuaded by Sinn Fein's interpretation in this regard - i.e. that their "presenteeism" would only serve to generate additional support to the anti-dealers.

Not everything the Sinners say is nonsense!
 
Sunny, watching Politics programme on BBC 2. Steve Baker (Rees Mogg friend) was asked what he thought of DM editorial. He blamed it on a change of editor
 

I know it won't make any difference but their absence from Parliment while collecting allowances makes a complete mockery of them standing on the sidelines moaning about the DUP and their deals with the Conservative party. Get in the game. There is no Government in Belfast where they can represent their communities and they refuse to go to 'Westminister'. So what do they do apart from press conferences?
 
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The odds of the present Brexit deal getting through parliament seem low.

The Tories with the DUP have a majority of 7. While the number of die harder Brexiteers who will vote against has probably been exaggerated (since John Major's day), it may be at least 30. There may even be some remain Tories voting against.

Labour, SNP and the rest are set to vote against.

Theresa May will look for some Labour MPs to support the deal on the basis that a no-deal Brexit would be a disaster. However these would have to ignore BOTH the Labour whip and the Labour for a Peoples Vote group, the main remainer Labour group, who are calling for a no vote.

And Yet. I think it has a better chance to pass than any analysis would suggest. MPs have a few more weeks to realise that if it does not pass Britains future will be bleaker than before.

From an Irish point of view, the current deal is the bet of all possible Brexits. Having the entire UK in the "sort of" customs union not just the North, is a big step forward for Irish trading interests.
 
cremeegg said:
From an Irish point of view, the current deal is the bet of all possible Brexits.
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It is certainly a huge bet. If there is agreement we seem to be preserving the status quo. If there isn't potential chaos with Ireland not only the biggest loser but will bear most of the blame from our neighbour.
 
I have been watching the debate on the draft agreement.

I have to say I have some sympathy with Teresa May.

It is difficult to negotiate on behalf of a bunch of politicians of all hues who are completely conflicted in their aspirations.

Certain Tories cannot accept the draft agreement but offer no alternative other than delusional bluster and playing up to the cameras.

In addition, several politicians seem to imply that the draft document is too complex for them. It seems they would require a Ladybird version!

Let's hope the adults take over in the UK.
 
The excellent Tommie Gorman has an excellent article on the RTE website about the current situation (sit-ye-ation on Norn-ireland speak) titled "Brexit - can you fix stupid?" It is well worth a read.
 
The Governor of the Bank of England has evaluated a scenario where the EU immediately apply tarifs the day after B-Day and refuse to grandfather British goods as meeting EU standards. If the EU were to take such a bloody minded approach Ireland would have to disobey.
 
for all our sakes I hope there are enough level headed people in positions of power to be intolerant of the intolerant and kick some posteriors
 
With the DUP already a write off shouldn't she go for the deal she probably wanted all along, i.e. a border in the Irish sea, no hated backstop holding back Britain. I think that's what's bothering the Tories whining about the backstop, its not a sudden concern about NI and the integrity of the 'precious union'....they could barely find NI on a map before all this kicked off.
 
Absolutely right, Betsy. And what is going to happen is that the negotiations will lead to exactly that. Problem is the DUP know that and they currently call the shots.
 
should they ask the people of NI to vote on a border in the Irish sea after all the people of Britain did not get to vote on the GFA agreement ,
 
Dan O'Brien in The Independent this morning sums it up perfectly for me: 'The backstop demand could end up bringing about that which it was designed to prevent'.
https://www.independent.ie/opinion/...hich-it-was-designed-to-prevent-37622042.html

I think somehow there needs to be a back down on the EU courts having the final say on it.
If it went to independent arbitration then I think May could get it through the Commons.
A no deal scenario would probably be even worse for Ireland than UK.
 
contagion is what is probably stopping the Tory brexiteers from coming out and admitting they really don't give a toss about the north. If they come out and finally say that they would be prepared to drop the north then it would cause Scotland and Wales to start a rethink of their positions. This would truly be a frightening prospect for Rees Mogg and co as they would be losing their Vassel states that allows them to call Great.
 
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