Brexit and the Border

[Betsy Og]

Lads, Theresa cannot sell anything to the House of Commons, it is pointless trying to appease her with woolly language about what this means and that means. You either have a backstop or you dont, but the backstop should only really be relevant to Ireland, no-one wants it for the rest of the UK.

The people of NI voted remain, the backstop is an economic opportunity, best of both worlds. It is only the DUP who are the outliers - they do not represent the views of the people of NI particularly on this issue. Other than them I havent seen a single person from NI interviewed who bemoaned the backstop or the idea of best of both worlds.

On the "contaigon" point - in 1990 Peter Brooke says the UK had "no selfish, strategic or economic interest in remaining in Northern Ireland", it has long been seen as a special case. Scotland is already revving up for Indy2, dismayed at how they have been ignored and disrespected at every turn, wanting to Remain.

Lets assume TM waits until the last moment (late January) to go with her deal, she's banking on the fear of crash out no deal making people vote Yes out of desparation... BUT the SNP have helpfully taken the EU case to show the UK can withdraw Article 50, unilaterally, whenever it wants. So the threat of abyss subsides, the deal fails in the Commons. Staring down the barrell of a crash out no deal within weeks and no prep for same, Article 50 notice is withdrawn, or deferred for say a year. By that time we'll either have a people vote (which will go Remain) or an election which may well see the DUP sidelined. If the Remain case fails then the Irish sea border is the agreement (I think enough Labour would vote for that if the Remain case has been abandoned by then).

So my money is on a peoples vote to Remain, and failing that a sea border whereby backstop is no more. So I'm not wringing my hands about what TM wants/needs blah blah, was hoping she'd lose, some Brexiteer would be getting handed his ass in Brussels and the whole thing could be accelerated. I don't think history will be kind to her, if she wasn't a Brexiteer she shouldnt have taken the job, she volunteered to be cannon fodder for Brexiteer element in her own party just for sake of being PM, she fairly got what she signed up for.

Bottom line, UK with blink on a crash out, they're stupid but they're not that stupid.

 

[Betsy Og]

The bailout was a massive success for us (well for our pension funds and depositors anyway) so can you cut out all the anti-German and anti-EU racist nonsense?.

While I'm pro-EU (but have seen quite enough intergration at this stage), that does not mean we can relax that some benevolent force is minding us. What Ireland wants now aligns with what the EU wants, so we 'win'. When German banks were going to lose, then the FF bank guarantee had to be extended, and we lost....bigly. So we have to "mark our men", so to speak, in the EU but generally we are good at that. As Brexit has shown, there are not many alternatives to being in the EU that arent, effectively, being in the EU. So on a pragmatic level we need to be there, whether we love it and fly blue flags, or see it as a necessary humdrum fact of life, is a matter of personal taste.

 

[Duke of Marmalade]

The people of NI voted remain, the backstop is an economic opportunity, best of both worlds. It is only the DUP who are the outliers - they do not represent the views of the people of NI particularly on this issue. Other than them I havent seen a single person from NI interviewed who bemoaned the backstop or the idea of best of both worlds.

I think you have that badly wrong, Betsy. The people of Waverley, for example, were more Remain than NI, but no way would they accept being set apart from the rest of England with borders between it and the rest, and they are not even burdened by the sectarian dimension which has galvanised every unionist if indeed not every protestant in NI to resist at all costs what they perceive as the Simon Varadkar land grab.

 

[Purple]

I think you have that badly wrong, Betsy. The people of Waverley, for example, were more Remain than NI, but no way would they accept being set apart from the rest of England with borders between it and the rest, and they are not even burdened by the sectarian dimension which has galvanised every unionist if indeed not every protestant in NI to resist at all costs what they perceive as the Simon Varadkar land grab.

One in ten Unionists are in favour of a united Ireland in the case of a no-deal Brexit.
This, along with the resistance by the DUP to the Irish Language Act, has also galvanised middle-class Catholics who were never SF supporters. I understand the stance taken by the DUP. I sympathise with it in some respects, but isn't helping the long term future of the "Precious Union".

 

[RETIRED2017]

One in ten Unionists are in favour of a united Ireland in the case of a no-deal Brexit.
This, along with the resistance by the DUP to the Irish Language Act, has also galvanised middle-class Catholics who were never SF supporters. I understand the stance taken by the DUP. I sympathise with it in some respects, but isn't helping the long term future of the "Precious Union".

Do you not understand in a no- deal Brexit the South will suffer more than the North,

 

[Sunny]

Bottom line, UK with blink on a crash out, they're stupid but they're not that stupid.

They are not stupid but there are enough people in positions of influence who still believe in the splendour of the British Empire and that Britain can be great again and nobody is going to tell the British what they can and can't do. To be fair to the British people, they have this amazing stubbornness that is really admirable in many ways. I just hope that for their own sake, they don't end up cutting off their noses to spite their face.

 

[Betsy Og]

But the people of Waverley are not operating under the GFA, which puts beyond doubt how, if ever, the constitutional position of the territory will change. I'm not talking about imposing borders I'm talking about avoiding them. Trucks have to go on a ferry to get to the UK, ideal scenario to check them (if they would even need checking ... the admission of defeat that the UK cant strike a future deal for years and years shows their confidence on this point....& these are the lads that said they'd have loads of trade deals done even before March).

As I've long mentioned the ports & airports of NI will be a de facto people border anyway - even a 'hard border' wouldn't prevent people smuggling of the type on Mexican border. Maybe you could check trucks crossing a hard border border but are there enough border patrolmen to stop the screaming hordes of Baltics scramabling over the bogs of Cyavan to get to Fermanagh? ..... I dont think so.

Did the Ulster Farmers not endorse TM's deal, backstop and all (a group who it is supposed are of good Planter stock)? Loyalty to the half crown rather than the crown was long a taunt labelled at unionists, maybe for once it will lead them to a sensible decision.

There is no question of a Simon Varadkar land grab, you'd swear they were appearing wrapped in tricolours with the flack they get over this. Their job is to protect the GFA and avoid a hard border, they should make absolutely no apologies for that. They can't deliver a United Ireland through Brexit or backstop, it doesnt move a UI an inch closer. A hard border or a crash out Brexit might, but that is not within their power, they are trying to avoid them.

I credit the people of NI with a bit more intelligence on the facts of the matter (as outlined above) as compared to many of the MPs of England who appear wilfully ignorant on basic facts. I dont see it in sectarian terms, maybe the people of the North do (& they are the ones who count, & you know them better than I) but to do so would be act against your best interests due to a skewed understanding of the position...... but I guess that's Brexit related issues in a nutshell.

 

[Sunny]

Do you not understand in a no- deal Brexit the South will suffer more than the North,

The South will have the EU who will very happily pump billions into Ireland to support it to show that being part of the EU means something. The North who have a very small private sector will be dependent on every increasing hand outs from London where public finances are stretched and where the majority of the people in the UK will start asking why billions are being sent over to Belfast every year when the political class can't even form a government because of the Irish language and seem more interested in bickering and taking their wages and expenses for no work....

 

[RETIRED2017]

They are not stupid but there are enough people in positions of influence who still believe in the splendour of the British Empire and that Britain can be great again and nobody is going to tell the British what they can and can't do. To be fair to the British people, they have this amazing stubbornness that is really admirable in many ways. I just hope that for their own sake, they don't end up cutting off their noses to spite their face.

I have done some work for a Engineering Company To limit the affects of a no deal Brexit I can tell you the british suppliers already have plans in plans to deal with a no Deal Brexit , From what I see I cannot say the same the other way around,

 

[Betsy Og]

I just hope that for their own sake, they don't end up cutting off their noses to spite their face.

Cos that would be well....a bit stupid. There are no yanks coming to invade France for them this time, if they keep it up they'll be needing the Blitz spirit alright.

 

[Betsy Og]

Do you not understand in a no- deal Brexit the South will suffer more than the North,

Well neither of us have a vote...bar the DUP (cheers for that SF....) so no point in hand wringing, but the ones that will suffer most of all will be Britain. I'll eat my hat if they crash out on a no deal in March.

 

[RETIRED2017]

The South will have the EU who will very happily pump billions into Ireland to support it to show that being part of the EU means something. The North who have a very small private sector will be dependent on every increasing hand outs from London where public finances are stretched and where the majority of the people in the UK will start asking why billions are being sent over to Belfast every year when the political class can't even form a government because of the Irish language and seem more interested in bickering and taking their wages and expenses for no work....

Without strings attached? The bombs will go off in Dublin come to mind if you don't do as I say, They will have there own problems to deal with without throwing more apples into an orchard there will not be as much money to through around you know
There will be a lot of self interests to be looked after before the come to Ireland your statement shows how badly prepared we are,

 

[Sunny]

Without strings attached? The bombs will go off in Dublin come to mind if you don't do as I say,

Eh?

 

[Sunny]

Cos that would be well....a bit stupid. There are no yanks coming to invade France for them this time, if they keep it up they'll be needing the Blitz spirit alright.

You say that now but if Donald eats a bag of dodgy French fries, who knows.......

 

[RETIRED2017]

Eh?

The apples are falling a little slower than the used to
I expect we will have to spend the Apple money we don't want first,
and send them the money and jobs they have being short changed first,

 

[Purple]

Do you not understand in a no- deal Brexit the South will suffer more than the North,

No, Ireland will not suffer more than Northern Ireland. The relative economic gap between us and the North is already the same as it was between West and East Germany in 1990. They are far poorer than us as it is. They will just get poorer. Our economy is currently at risk of overheating. A bit of a post Brexit cool-down won't do us much harm compared to what will happen to them. We'll then see how much the little-englanders really care about them.

 

[cremeegg]

Do you not understand in a no- deal Brexit the South will suffer more than the North,

I wonder if that is likely to be true.

A no deal Brexit will be a heavy blow to the south, but we will be well equipped to recover from that blow. Due to the trading opportunities available to us.

The UK in general will suffer a similar blow, but their opportunities for recovery will be delayed until they can repair or rebuild the trading opportunities lost in Brexit.

The North will suffer more than the UK generally due to its proximity to the south. There may also be a backlash against the cost of the North to the English taxpayer. A bit more than the net contribution to the EU.

 

[RETIRED2017]

No, Ireland will not suffer more than Northern Ireland. The relative economic gap between us and the North is already the same as it was between West and East Germany in 1990. They are far poorer than us as it is. They will just get poorer. Our economy is currently at risk of overheating. A bit of a post Brexit cool-down won't do us much harm compared to what will happen to them. We'll then see how much the little-englanders really care about them.

I hope you are correct but I suspect you are wrong the jobs that will get lost in lots of cases will be low end these people will be staying around to collect from the people still working
The post Brexit cool -down may not work out like you think a bit like the soft landing so called experts were talking about last down turn do you remember o it will not affect Ireland ,
Sonny said it all expecting others to come to our aid when they will be busy mending fences with the UK,

 

[odyssey06]

I wonder if that is likely to be true.

A no deal Brexit will be a heavy blow to the south, but we will be well equipped to recover from that blow. Due to the trading opportunities available to us.

The UK in general will suffer a similar blow, but their opportunities for recovery will be delayed until they can repair or rebuild the trading opportunities lost in Brexit.

The North will suffer more than the UK generally due to its proximity to the south. There may also be a backlash against the cost of the North to the English taxpayer. A bit more than the net contribution to the EU.

I agree the North is in for a battering, but I'm not totally convinced about your other points.

All those trading opportunities available to us are currently available to us right now.
We're going to have a hard job finding new outlets for our agri-business products, it'll be a lot harder trying to sell those to the French or Italians than the British.
Same for French winemakers. If they lose the British market, where do they turn?

 

[Sunny]

I hope you are correct but I suspect you are wrong the jobs that will get lost in lots of cases will be low end these people will be staying around to collect from the people still working
The post Brexit cool -down may not work out like you think a bit like the soft landing so called experts were talking about last down turn do you remember o it will not affect Ireland ,
Sonny said it all expecting others to come to our aid when they will be busy mending fences with the UK,

That's not what I said thanks. In no way am I minimising the impact of Brexit. But I also have no time for your anti EU bailout rants. The EU didn't screw Ireland during the financial crisis. If the EU wanted to blackmail us over Apple money or tax base or whatever else you want, they would have done it already. They would have insisted on conditions to make the Irish border a central part of the Brexit negotiations. Instead they are willing to risk a no brexit deal which would impact all of the EU rather than just leave Ireland on it's own to deal with the border issue. Because when it comes down to it, Europe shouldn't really care if there is hard border or not. Read up how much money the EU has pumped into peace process related projects in the North and South. They have been a huge supporter without blackmailing us or putting in conditions for many years. Read the UK's own analysis and see how see much North/South Co-operation is underpinned by EU law and EU support. The EU like every other large political organ is massively inefficient and has many flaws but reading some of the nonsense that people talk about when it comes to the EU and this Country beggers belief.