Brexit and the Border

odyssey06 said:
I'm not aware of any Tory Brexiteer who claimed they could negotiate a more favourable bilateral trading agreement with an EU member state such France or Germany directly. If you can find a single reference to back that up, I'm all ears.
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That's exactly the point. It cant negotiate bilateral trade agreement with France, Germany etc short of EU breaking up.
So in order to pursue its ambition of negotiation 'better' trade deals with the rest of the world it is jeopardizing its current free frictionless trade deals with some of the world's biggest economies in the EU.
The stupidity of all this is while the Brexiteers fashion notions of negotiating better deals it fails to consider that the EU can also negotiate 'better' deals too.
So there is no guarantee that the UK will be able to negotiate any better deals with US, Canada, Australia etc than the EU can negotiate with same.
 

Yes but what Tory Brexiteer or who exactly claimed they could negotiate a bilateral trade deal with France? Your phrasing strongly implies that it was claimed.

It took the EU 7 years to negotiate a deal with Canada and it was still nearly derailed by a Belgian province. If it took the EU that long to negotiate a trade deal with the non-EU country probably most like itself in terms of global perspective, I wouldn't hold my breath on the next ones.

There's no guarantees that the UK will be able to, but nor are there any guarantees to assume that they cannot. The US is already lining up with one.

It's also stupid of the EU to not have some sort of free trade deal with the UK given the amount the EU exports to it, but the EU seems spectacularly unconcerned about the fate of Irish farmers, Spanish produce growers, French wine makers, German car makers etc. Perhaps it was stupid or naive of the UK to assume the EU wouldn't cut off its nose to spite its face and would actually take its citizens concerns into account rather than what is best for the EU 'project'.
 
odyssey06 said:
Yes but what Tory Brexiteer or who exactly claimed they could negotiate a bilateral trade deal with France? Your phrasing strongly implies that it was claimed.
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Does it? I wouldn't have thought so myself. I never mentioned bilateral trades. I mentioned a trade deal with the EU that consists of some the biggest economies in the world. I gave examples of those large economies such as France and Germany. I also gave other examples of smaller economies like Ireland.


Yes, I would imagine international trade deals can be quite complex. I'm not sure of the in's and out's of that deal, but presumably it could be said that Canada took 7 yrs to negotiate a deal with the EU?
Canada is apparently one of the Brexiteers obvious targets I would have thought. I read somewhere that Farage wants Britain to take back control of British waters so that it can export its fish to Canada. I read elsewhere that Canada already has its own fish.

odyssey06 said:
There's no guarantees that the UK will be able to, but nor are there any guarantees to assume that they cannot. The US is already lining up with one.
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That's true, but what is also true is that the UK already has a free trade deal with 26 other EU countries, that includes some of the biggest economies in the world, like France and Germany as examples.


I agree, but I think the point that you appear to be missing is that the UK already has a free trade deal with 26 other EU countries, that includes some of the biggest economies in the world, like France and Germany as examples.
What it appears to want is better terms and conditions for itself over and above the t&c applicable to the other 26 EU states while simultaneously not being 'burdened' with the t&c it doesn't like that are applicable to the other 26 countries.
 
http://ukandeu.ac.uk/explainers/trade-deals-with-third-countries/

This is a good article on the UK negotiating trade deals with Third Countries and the possible outcomes.

The UK is interested in trade agreements with the US, China, Canada, Australia & New Zealand. The article goes on to say:

"Free trade agreements (FTAs) are associated with increases in bilateral trade: so, while it would obviously depend on the terms of specific deals, it is probable that UK trade deals with third countries would increase UK trade.
However, since tariff rates are already low, there is limited potential for tariff reductions to increase trade flows – tariffs between the US and the EU average about 1.6%.
Non-tariff barriers (NTBs), such as regulatory differences, are much more important. The estimated cost of NTBs on goods is 12.9% to 13.7% between the EU and the US, and on services (which make up 80% of the UK economy), sectors such as business services and financial
services face NTBs worth on average around 30% in trade costs.

There are some simple solutions to reducing these costs, such as through mutual recognition of technical standards and expanded labelling for food products. However, many of these costs reflect regulations arising from differences in preferences. For example, if UK citizens do not wish to have chlorinated chicken or genetically modified food in the country, then there is not much expansion in trade that can be expected without seriously undermining the wishes of the public.

But even the most ambitious set of FTAs is unlikely to replace the trade lost as a result of leaving the EU. For example, the National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) estimate that concluding FTAs with all of the above countries, and more, would only boost UK total trade by about 5%, while Brexit will reduce it by more than 20%."
 

In your post #97 in this thread you accuse Brexiteers of a delusion without any reference or justification whatsoever. It is something you appear to have invented out of thin air. Do you withdraw your remarks or can you please provide something to justify them?
"Agree its own free trade agreements with whoever it wants. I can only assume that would include both large and small economies like France, Italy, Spain and Germany and Ireland, Poland and Denmark."

By naming the states directly it is implicit you are talking about bilateral trade deals.


What do you think is more complex? Negotiating a trade deal with a confederation of 27 states? Or negotiating a bilateral deal between 2 states?
It didn't take Canada 7 years, it took the EU 7 years, to suggest otherwise is absurd. Canada nearly walked away from the deal several times because of EU delays.

That's true, but what is also true is that the UK already has a free trade deal with 26 other EU countries, that includes some of the biggest economies in the world, like France and Germany as examples.
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The UK doesn't have a free trade deal with 26 other EU countries. It is a member of a customs union with 26 other member states, a union which brings which it many other costs (contributions to budget) and obligations.
 
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odyssey06 said:
In your post #97 in this thread you accuse Brexiteers of a delusion without any reference or justification whatsoever. It is something you appear to have invented out of thin air. Do you withdraw your remarks
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Do I withdraw my remarks?

No.

Its my opinion. Im happy to be proven wrong if that is the case. But from where im standing, the British want to leave the EU to get rid of all the constraints of its membership, but retain all the benefits of free trade in EU economies.
I think that is a delusional aspiration. Im not saying its impossible, but if they were to succeed I would suggest that that would be the demise of the EU.
But considering some of the most foremost Brexiteers are currently facing into the political wilderness, the reality of a Brexit that facilitates better t&c for the UK after leaving is delusional.


Yes, and I explained that I was simply using the countries as examples.


I would suggest the former to be more complex. So what?
As I said, im not familiar with the in and outs of that deal so I will take your word for it.
So what if Canada 'nearly walked away'? That would have been absurd of them to do that.

odyssey06 said:
The UK doesn't have a free trade deal with 26 other EU countries. It is a member of a customs union with 26 other member states, a union which brings which it many other costs (contributions to budget) and obligations.
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It is a member of a customs union and single market which permits the free movement of capital and labour - in ordinary parlance, it is free trade.
The same rules apply to all members. The UK wants different rules for itself. It wants a separate free trade agreement that facilitates the movement of capital, goods and services but limits the movement of labour.

Instead, the whole Brexit saga is about how to limit the damage to trade between EU and UK and not one reasonable proposal on how to control immigration across the Irish border - you do accept that 'taking control of borders' to stop immigration is an aim of the Brexiteers.
 
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BREXIT WhitePaper: Free movement of people will end.

Short of putting check points and barbwire along border in NI how on earth, in real terms, will this work?

More delusion.

****

Im watching Sky News report with incredulity.

The reporter has stated, in light of the above, that when it comes to UK citizens visiting the EU for business or travel that the government will seek 'visa-free travel'.

Not only that, it wants to keep Irish border open - while simultaneously stopping free movement of people between UK and EU!

What am I missing here?
 
What’s your difficulty B/S? The UK has forever had a common travel area with ROI. Long before the EU Ireland had a different immigration policy to the UK. So people could legally enter ROI and then easily illegally enter the UK. But as an illegal immigrant they would not have access to social welfare, the NHS, or be able to work etc.
 

No problem at all Duke, now that you have explained matters.
Im just wondering however, as an EU citizen will I be barred from working in the North, but as an Irish citizen I would be allowed?
And I presume that if UK stops EU citizens from UK services, then UK citizens can expect not to be able to use EU services?
 
An EU citizen will need a visa to work in UK but an Irish citizen will not need a visa.

I am not sure what will be involved in services but taking my own area of experience I guess that EU life companies will not be able to sell to UK citizens and vice versa, as it was in the beginning
 
Duke of Marmalade said:
An EU citizen will need a visa to work in UK but an Irish citizen will not need a visa.
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So not all EU citizens will require a visa then?

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/...ention-on-human-rights-tory-mps-a8444386.html

Im reading some of this stuff about 'free visa-travel' for business people, students and young travel. Then im reading about the UK being bound to European Human rights convention.

Then im reading this article about 'very similar' free movement.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/...immigration-free-movement-offer-a8326101.html

All in the hope of trashing out a customs union deal for trade (even though it already has one).

I must look up Nigel Farages Twitter account, he is hardly a happy camper?
If this is 'Brexit means Brexit', what a joke!
 
If you were born in Austria and you parents come from another EU Country I belive you can choose any of your parents EU Country to be a citizen of you will not become a an Austrian Citizen I suspect Ireland Will have Problems other Countrys will not have at present when you look at immigrant .free.movement offer and we are next door to the only land Border after the UK leaves the EU, The fun for Ireland is only starting when you look at the Irish citizen having free movement to the UK I suspect the TDs are going to have a shorter holiday this year,
 
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They're at it again (in the Commons), as far as I can tell backtracking on their recent white paper. A bit confusing at the minute but Irish sea border getting an outing, talks of new legislation would make it illegal for HMRC to fulfil white paper. Basically they're on track to crash out with no deal, another Minster resigned and voted against.

I cant understand why Theresa May is hanging around, I don't believe her heart is in this shambles. Why not let the hard Brexiteers take control of the ship and be the ones who sink it. Surely to God Labour would win in an election, just on a "at least we're not them" ticket. If Commons go for an Irish sea border maybe the DUP would pull the plug (the North is moving even more remain from recent polls), I'm not sure their bribe will get paid anyway at this stage - the tribal nature of NI should mean they cope ok in an election - haven't heard much of UUP in a long time.

Anyway, more watching from behind the couch.......
 
Firefly said:
I agree. She must be thinking of an exit strategy.

I would also expect Labour to win in a re-election.
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Looks like she is going to lead from the front after outmanoeuvre the no deal boys out of there job I think she will out manoeuvred them again when the time comes,
By By David and Boris Ben Maria , Interesting to watch Jacob Rees-Mogg towing the line from now on, I suspect he is just after doing Boris out of the top job long term,
 
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Indeed. An assertive move by May today. This surely throws down the gauntlet to Boris, Davis et al - put up or shut up!
 
More important though, Gary Lineker wants another referendum. I know ye think I'm joking or being sarcastic, but Brexit needs to be...errr... 'fought' at the chip shop, not over afternoon tea. While the leading Brexiteers are public school toffs, the vote to leave came mainly from 'rustbelt' type towns in the North. So we need to meet those folks on their own territory, and how better than through the medium of football. It should be a no-brainer if it happens - even with all the shocks of the first vote and Trump etc there'd want to be a frightfully (word chosen especially) fatalistic tone in the country for it to vote for Brexit a second time given what they now know.
 
I see Boris Jonson held secret talks with Steve Bannon in the last few days `the likes of Bannon drums up support in the same places you expect Gary Lineker to,

I do not think it will work look at sites like this to see the disconnection that has developed between sections of the population who are struggling and the resentment bubbling just below the surface from people doing well,
It is the people who are showing resentment that need to be worked on to get it through,
I think the word rustbelt speakes for itself and the people who use that term,
 
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