Brexit and the Border

PMU that is a heroic attempt, though Sophrosyne seems to have spotted an immediate difficulty. I take the, perhaps naive, view that experts in the field have been negotiating these points for at least a year and they have no magic solution that makes the four red lines join:
Theresa May's red line: No Customs Union or Single Market
Leo's red line: no hard land border
DUP's red line: no sea border in the UK
EU's red line: single market must be protected, if necessary, by a hard border (e.g. in No Deal as signaled by that Portuguese a few weeks ago).

In logic, at least one of these red lines has to be breached. Hopefully Theresa May's. But if she finds that politically impossible, then I'm afraid Leo is next in line. I can't see the DUP or the EU budging.
 
Duke of Marmalade said:
PMU that is a heroic attempt, though Sophrosyne seems to have spotted an immediate difficulty. I take the, perhaps naive, view that experts in the field have been negotiating these points for at least a year and they have no magic solution that makes the four red lines join:
Theresa May's red line: No Customs Union or Single Market
Leo's red line: no hard land border
DUP's red line: no sea border in the UK
EU's red line: single market must be protected, if necessary, by a hard border (e.g. in No Deal as signaled by that Portuguese a few weeks ago).

In logic, at least one of these red lines has to be breached. Hopefully Theresa May's. But if she finds that politically impossible, then I'm afraid Leo is next in line. I can't see the DUP or the EU budging.
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I thought the deal that was negotiated didn't cross any of those lines, just it had the permanent backstop?
It takes UK out of customs union, single market, common fisheries and agriculture, ECJ.
Would a 5 year time limit on the backstop mean no red lines crossed?
 
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odyssey06 said:
I thought the deal that was negotiated didn't cross any of those lines, just it had the permanent backstop?
It takes UK out of customs union, single market, common fisheries and agriculture, ECJ.
Would a 5 year time limit on the backstop mean no red lines crossed?
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It crossed the DUP's red lines in that there was some differentiation between NI and GB in the backstop.
On the face of it a 5 year time limit would be Leo climbing down and Mary Lou would try to bury him. But Michael Martin in answer to a leading question on RTE did not commit to a time limit being a red line. MM is a rock of sense and with his backing Leo could carry off this seeming climb down. But as I said before it would be the DUP and the Brexiteers who would feel really cheated.

A possible solution is that TM sees her chances of winning a GE improving. The result of the 2017 election which put the DUP in the driving seat is the real cause of the present impasse. If TM even got her slim majority back I can see Tory Brexiteers buying into making the backstop NI only. This was after all the original backstop before the DUP stepped in that week in December 2017 and got TM to add another clause to the joint way forward which they thought ruled out a sea border. GB politicians could easily justify this position given the support of the NI business and farming community for TM's original deal.

The more you think about it, it is the DUP who have blown this to a crisis of silly proportions. Simon Varadkar didn't help by winding them up with such talk as "the Dublin government won't desert northern nationalists this time".
 
The backstop is just one contentious issue, but is being played up. If that didn't exist it would be something else.

One of the problems is over-concentration on the withdrawal agreement, which many UK politicians on their own admission haven't actually read or fully understood.

The future relationship is more important. Solutions could be found based on the nature of this relationship, which is where the meaningful thought should now centre.
 
Nice one, Duke

Apparently and on impeachable authority, Sabine's necklace previously had as many beads as Theresa's model. The reduced bead count, as per the image, is consequent to preventative medical advice to the effect that she already had sufficient frontal mass, sometimes questionably referred to as the endowment effect.
 
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Interesting May bringing Olly Robbins To Dublin ,Don't think Brexiteers in the Tory Party will be happy,
Looks like she is working on getting support from Remainers of all parties on her side,
 
elacsaplau said:
Nice one, Duke

Apparently and on impeachable authority, Sabine's necklace previously had as many beads as Theresa's model. The reduced bead count, as per the image, is consequent to preventative medical advice to the effect that she already sufficient frontal mass.
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The trouble with the type of beads on a string May is wearing When one slips off all the rest follow,
 
I sent May a Gold tusk chain choker style necklace with tusk details from the Missguided Ireland Web site they were 14 euro now down to 5 euro she can count on the vote of every MP who admires it,
If the people of Clare can send a Card to Junker , the least we can do is send May a present for looking after all the people In Ireland and getting no thanks ,

To be fair we should be sending her our support and best wishes on getting her deal through,
 
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A friend is the purchasing manager for a large Irish business. He contacted an important UK supplier to see what preparation they had made to be able to continue supplying him after Brexit.

No problem he was told. They had arranged large warehouses, trucks etc etc everything in hand no matter what happens.

He asked where the warehouses were. In the UK !

Its not just the politicians who don't have a clue.
 
cremeegg said:
A friend is the purchasing manager for a large Irish business. He contacted an important UK supplier to see what preparation they had made to be able to continue supplying him after Brexit.

No problem he was told. They had arranged large warehouses, trucks etc etc everything in hand no matter what happens.

He asked where the warehouses were. In the UK !

Its not just the politicians who don't have a clue.
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Looks like the the Uk supplier is better organised to supply the important uk suppliers, than the Irish purchasing manager is if he left it this late to make sure he will have supplies ,
I expect the uk will have put in place movement of supplies between UK mainland and NI ,
I can tell you most UK suppliers have arrangements in place if no deal Brexit once Irish firms engaged in good time,
 
If most of Ireland's Agricultural products go to uk after Brexit, EU cap support will finish up putting food on uk tables, Not popular to say I know,What in it for EU long term,
 
RETIRED2017 said:
If most of Ireland's Agricultural products go to uk after Brexit, EU cap support will finish up putting food on uk tables, Not popular to say I know,What in it for EU long term,
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Not clear what you're trying to say there, but I don't foresee any Brexit scenario that would result in such a significant increase in the portion of our exports going to the UK.
 
It seems the DUP are in discussions with the Chancellor. So nothing has changed, for the DUP is less about the Crown and more about the half-crown. Clearly now about how big the bribe to enable the DUP climb down from their high horse.
 
Angela Merkel is coming to Dublin on Thursday. I have a bad feeling about that.

Why is she coming, is it to tell Leo in person, "look the Brits won't wear the backstop, it will have to go"

I fear the worst.


Having said that dropping the backstop may be in the Souths best interest at the end of the day.
 
cremeegg said:
Angela Merkel is coming to Dublin on Thursday. I have a bad feeling about that.

Why is she coming, is it to tell Leo in person, "look the Brits won't wear the backstop, it will have to go"

I fear the worst.


Having said that dropping the backstop may be in the Souths best interest at the end of the day.
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I know you predicted Donald Trump winning, but no way is Frau Merkel coming to Dublin to handbag Leo into humiliation. That would signal the end of the EU as the German Fiefdom narrative would be proven.
No, it is a part bluff, part real, demonstration that the Germans are planning for this No Deal Brexit seriously despite the threat to sales of Mercs to Brits.
 
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