Brexit 2017

[Wahaay]

The effects of any investment decisions whether positive or negative would have no discernible impact on GDP figures so quickly.

That's not what I wrote.
Experts predicted investment would suffer.It hasn't.
They also predicted industry would suffer.It hasn't.
You think if the expert view had been correct about post-referendum GDP figures it wouldn't have shown by now ?
I've always said the true effect of Brexit won't be known for 5-10 years which is why Project Fear was such palpable nonsense.
But you name me a country in the world which wouldn't be delighted to have the UK's GDP figures right now.

 

[Duke of Marmalade]

UK GDP: 2015Q4 $680Bn 2016Q4 $590Bn -13%

Nothing for Brexiteers to crow about there.

 

[Leo]

I've always said the true effect of Brexit won't be known for 5-10 years which is why Project Fear was such palpable nonsense.

Then why keep bringing up short term numbers as some kind of vindication of the leave position?

But you name me a country in the world which wouldn't be delighted to have the UK's GDP figures right now.

Just one? You might want to restrict the criteria a little.

That's not what I wrote.
Experts predicted investment would suffer.It hasn't.
They also predicted industry would suffer.It hasn't.

What numbers are you basing those assertions on? Can you point to any real source that shows net investment inflows for the pre and post-referendum periods? Same for industry, what benchmarks are you using to assess performance both pre and post-referendum? Do you have sales and margin numbers?

You think if the expert view had been correct about post-referendum GDP figures it wouldn't have shown by now ?

What experts were saying short-term GDP numbers would be an accurate reflection of the potential impacts of Brexit? That's like declaring the winner of a horse race based on what looks good in the parade ring. If you want to read anything into the GDP numbers, you need to consider what a flat GDP growth rate for the 4th quarter tells you when output was 10-20% cheaper.

 

[Wahaay]

Then why keep bringing up short term numbers as some kind of vindication of the leave position?



Just one? You might want to restrict the criteria a little.



What numbers are you basing those assertions on? Can you point to any real source that shows net investment inflows for the pre and post-referendum periods? Same for industry, what benchmarks are you using to assess performance both pre and post-referendum? Do you have sales and margin numbers?



What experts were saying short-term GDP numbers would be an accurate reflection of the potential impacts of Brexit? That's like declaring the winner of a horse race based on what looks good in the parade ring. If you want to read anything into the GDP numbers, you need to consider what a flat GDP growth rate for the 4th quarter tells you when output was 10-20% cheaper.

I bring up the short-term economic stats as indicators that confidence in the British economy remains strong despite the Referendum vote and the tsunami of " expert " opinion predicting an immediate catastrophic effect on the economy in the even of a Leave vote.
As for the benchmark about how industry is performing pre and post-referendum what an earth do you think the GDP figures show ? Consumer-based industries are positive and whilst manufacturing and construction slowed in Q3 and Q4 due to natural uncertainties before the Brexit negotitations have begun they haven't fallen off a cliff as predicted.
By the way Q4 figures were not flat - they rose by 0.6%.
Just imagine if those figures in Q3 and Q4 were negative - all the usual suspects on here and elsewhere would be queuing up to say we told you so.
On the general criteria of GDP figures I should,of course,have referred to G7 countries of which the UK had the best growth last year.

 

[Leo]

I bring up the short-term economic stats as indicators that confidence in the British economy remains strong despite the Referendum vote and the tsunami of " expert " opinion predicting an immediate catastrophic effect on the economy in the even of a Leave vote.

But GDP isn't an accurate reflection of confidence.

As for the benchmark about how industry is performing pre and post-referendum what an earth do you think the GDP figures show ?

Well GDP numbers just show GDP, you misunderstand how they're calculated if you think they immediately reflect investment levels or margins. You've categorically stated that investment levels and industry have not suffered since the vote, do you have any evidence to support this? I'd love to see numbers, but I haven't found anything published yet that reflects the post-vote period. The latest OECD reports I see only detail up to October.

By the way Q4 figures were not flat - they rose by 0.6%.

The growth rate was flat, as in the same as Q3

Just imagine if those figures in Q3 and Q4 were negative - all the usual suspects on here and elsewhere would be queuing up to say we told you so.

Indeed they probably would have, I'd have called them out as wrong too.

On the general criteria of GDP figures I should,of course,have referred to G7 countries of which the UK had the best growth last year.

Sure who wouldn't want to limit the list of competing economies to just another 6, including that economic powerhouse that is Italy!

 

[Wahaay]

But GDP isn't an accurate reflection of confidence.

Sure who wouldn't want to limit the list of competing economies to just another 6, including that economic powerhouse that is Italy!

Don't be selective now.You omitted the USA,Germany,Japan,France and Canada.If you don't think the UK having better GDP growth than those countries in 2016 is not significant I'd struggle to take you seriously.

 

[Leo]

Don't be selective now.You omitted the USA,Germany,Japan,France and Canada.If you don't think the UK having better GDP growth than those countries in 2016 is not significant I'd struggle to take you seriously.

Those countries didn't vote for Brexit, their GDPs are meaningless in the context of this thread.

Again, can you provide links to any publication that backs up your assertion that investment and industry have not suffered since the Brexit vote?

 

[Wahaay]

Those countries didn't vote for Brexit, their GDPs are meaningless in the context of this thread.

Again, can you provide links to any publication that backs up your assertion that investment and industry have not suffered since the Brexit vote?

Of course they're not meaningless - they're a comparison of how the UK is performing against other major countries.

www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/12/30/britain-has-secured-15billion-extra-foreign-investment-since/
Can you provide any evidence that investment and industry HAVE suffered since the Brexit vote ?

 

[Leo]

Of course they're not meaningless - they're a comparison of how the UK is performing against other major countries.

They are meaningless in terms of the relative performance of the UK economy before and after the vote. If you were to demonstrate a consistent pattern of growth slowing in Q4 for a significant number of developed economies (and you'd need to expand your view far beyond the G7), then if you could show the UK bucking that trend, that might go some way towards justifying using them as a success measure, but even still, just looking at GDP is only looking at a tiny portion of the bigger picture.

www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/12/30/britain-has-secured-15billion-extra-foreign-investment-since/

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/201...red-15billion-extra-foreign-investment-since/

That's something at least, but they're mostly talking about commitments to make future investments, not actual inflows. Commitments like that are common while negotiating major deals, they don't always pan out. The company I work for made a lot of headlines a couple of years back after making a commitment to take on 300 more staff. Now, the reality was that we had already hired 90% of those roles 6 months earlier, but the announcement at that time suited the purposes of the IDA with whom we were negotiating on a new round of grants. I also don't see how that £15b figure compares to the previous quarter or the same period in 2015. Once the OECD FDI reports for the full year are published, we should know more.

Can you provide any evidence that investment and industry HAVE suffered since the Brexit vote ?

But I never said that they HAVE suffered. I'm curious as to the real impact on the UK economy and what knock-on effects that will have on us. I'm looking to go beyond the pro or anto-Brexit hype and see real numbers. You stated they have not suffered yet can offer no more that conjecture to back it up.

 

[Firefly]

Can you cite any banks that have started re-locating yet ? You know,the smaller ones at least which were going to up sticks before Christmas.

Barclays prepares to expand Dublin office after Brexit

Barclays is preparing to boost its operations in Dublin and use the Irish capital as its main base in the European Union if British banks are forced to relocate their EU businesses because of Brexit.

“We have made clear repeatedly that we will plan for a range of Brexit contingencies, including building greater capacity into our existing operations in Dublin,” a Barclays spokesman said

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2017/01/26/barclays-prepares-expand-dublin-office-brexit/

How do you like them apples?

 

[Wahaay]

Barclays prepares to expand Dublin office after Brexit

Barclays is preparing to boost its operations in Dublin and use the Irish capital as its main base in the European Union if British banks are forced to relocate their EU businesses because of Brexit.

“We have made clear repeatedly that we will plan for a range of Brexit contingencies, including building greater capacity into our existing operations in Dublin,” a Barclays spokesman said

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2017/01/26/barclays-prepares-expand-dublin-office-brexit/

How do you like them apples?

" is preparing "

Here's what Jes Staley, Barclays’ chief executive, actually said in Davos last week.

“I don’t believe that the financial centre of Europe will leave the city of London,” he told the BBC. “There are all sorts of reasons why I think the UK will continue to be the financial lungs for Europe.”

That's not to say a few backroom Excel monkeys won't be relocated to Dublin but the idea that London will lose its preminence as the world's leading financial centre is nonsense.

Those apples are small potatoes.

 

[Duke of Marmalade]

It doesn't give me any pleasure to see Theresa May going with begging bowl to the likes of Erdogan. Nelson, Wellington, Churchill et al must be spinning.

 

[Firefly]

" is preparing "

Here's what Jes Staley, Barclays’ chief executive, actually said in Davos last week.

“I don’t believe that the financial centre of Europe will leave the city of London,” he told the BBC. “There are all sorts of reasons why I think the UK will continue to be the financial lungs for Europe.”

That's not to say a few backroom Excel monkeys won't be relocated to Dublin but the idea that London will lose its preminence as the world's leading financial centre is nonsense.

Those apples are small potatoes.

Potatoes are a better analogy actually. Although we have a chequered relationship with the humble spud, we are now quite adept at growing them. Their beauty lies in the fact that once sown properly they propagate. It is oft mentioned that the entire population of Ireland could fit into greater Manchester. If Manchester had companies with their European Headquarters below you would be singing from the rafters!

• Google
• Facebook
• Paypal
• Microsoft
• Yahoo
• eBay
• LinkedIn
• AOL
• Twitter
• Airbnb
• Intel
• Apple
• Pfizer
• EMC
• VMWARE

The International Financial Services Centre (IFSC) was established in 1987. It grew rapidly in the 2000's and has many international banks / organisations already in situ, such as :

• Citibank
• State Street International
• Paypal
• Accenture
• BNY Mellon
• BNP Paribas

In the past 10 years or so I believe the growth in the IFSC was pretty stagnant so if jobs move from London to Dublin they would be most welcome. As already noted, our population is quite small so just one or two big moves would be of material benefit.

Oh, from yesterday's Sunday Independent:

Two major Asian banks are in "advanced talks" with the State to move part of their London operations to Ireland in the wake of Brexit.
SHARE
It is understood that Japan's Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corporation (SMBC) and the Bank of China (BOC) have both held a series of pre-application meetings with the Central Bank ahead of a potential move to Ireland.



Whether we call them apples or potatoes, I'm easy. I just notice that the ones above are bigger and most welcome on our shores!

 

[Wahaay]

Potatoes are a better analogy actually. Although we have a chequered relationship with the humble spud, we are now quite adept at growing them. Their beauty lies in the fact that once sown properly they propagate. It is oft mentioned that the entire population of Ireland could fit into greater Manchester. If Manchester had companies with their European Headquarters below you would be singing from the rafters!

• Google
• Facebook
• Paypal
• Microsoft
• Yahoo
• eBay
• LinkedIn
• AOL
• Twitter
• Airbnb
• Intel
• Apple
• Pfizer
• EMC
• VMWARE

The International Financial Services Centre (IFSC) was established in 1987. It grew rapidly in the 2000's and has many international banks / organisations already in situ, such as :

• Citibank
• State Street International
• Paypal
• Accenture
• BNY Mellon
• BNP Paribas

In the past 10 years or so I believe the growth in the IFSC was pretty stagnant so if jobs move from London to Dublin they would be most welcome. As already noted, our population is quite small so just one or two big moves would be of material benefit.

Oh, from yesterday's Sunday Independent:

Two major Asian banks are in "advanced talks" with the State to move part of their London operations to Ireland in the wake of Brexit.
SHARE
It is understood that Japan's Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corporation (SMBC) and the Bank of China (BOC) have both held a series of pre-application meetings with the Central Bank ahead of a potential move to Ireland.



Whether we call them apples or potatoes, I'm easy. I just notice that the ones above are bigger and most welcome on our shores!

Enjoy them while you can.
Once Trump slashes corporate taxes and if the UK does likewise they'll soon be back to growing tubers on those sites.

 

[Firefly]

The biggest potato of them all is taking some action, or more specifically, not taking planned action:

Mr Blankfein told Bloomberg TV that his bank was already “slowing down” its recent shift of resources to the UK because of the referendum decision

http://www.irishtimes.com/business/...kes-theresa-may-to-task-over-brexit-1.2955749

 

[Firefly]

Enjoy them while you can.

We have been, thanks.

Once Trump slashes corporate taxes and if the UK does likewise they'll soon be back to growing tubers on those sites.

The US has a huge internal market. Slashing corporation taxes to being 100,000 jobs home could be like cutting off your nose to spite your face. Billions of dollars less in taxation revenue to increase employment by about .5%...

I didn't say anything when I read your first mention of potatoes, but the reference to tubers is not the nicest. It's also a tad ironic when you refer to others as "the pond life of cretinous You Tube posters".

You really should represent yourself better.

 

[Wahaay]

The biggest potato of them all is taking some action, or more specifically, not taking planned action:

Mr Blankfein told Bloomberg TV that his bank was already “slowing down” its recent shift of resources to the UK because of the referendum decision

http://www.irishtimes.com/business/...kes-theresa-may-to-task-over-brexit-1.2955749

This would be

The biggest potato of them all is taking some action, or more specifically, not taking planned action:

Mr Blankfein told Bloomberg TV that his bank was already “slowing down” its recent shift of resources to the UK because of the referendum decision

http://www.irishtimes.com/business/...kes-theresa-may-to-task-over-brexit-1.2955749

The Goldman Sachs which bankrolled the Remain campaign you mean ?
And the Goldman Sachs who,as one of AIB's biggest bondholders,was bailed out by your taxes ?I'm surprised you're such a big fan.
The City of London is big enough and experienced enough to look after itself and will still be a major financial centre long after Brexit.
But I'll pass on your concerns for its well-being to the relevant authorities.

 

[Firefly]

The Goldman Sachs which bankrolled the Remain campaign you mean ?
And the Goldman Sachs who,as one of AIB's biggest bondholders,was bailed out by your taxes ?I'm surprised you're such a big fan.
The City of London is big enough and experienced enough to look after itself and will still be a major financial centre long after Brexit.
But I'll pass on your concerns for its well-being to the relevant authorities.

I'm not a fan at all, just pointing out yet another major player in the market which does not appear to be happy about the outcome..

 

[Wahaay]

I'm not a fan at all, just pointing out yet another major player in the market which does not appear to be happy about the outcome..

There are lots of people not happy with the outcome,like Jolyon Maugham and the Lib Dems and Labour MPs who want to overturn the referendum result in much the same way as Ireland's was reversed after threats from a French midget.
But there are lots of others unhappy with the result who just get on with it.
Like this crowd.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/b...arch-centre-115-milliom-vote-of-a7552541.html

 

[Firefly]

100 jobs coming, but from the same article 900 going. How are the apples looking?

From the same article:

The European Medicines Agency, a body based in London and responsible for the scientific evaluation and safety monitoring of medicines, warned it is likely to leave after Brexit.

Mr Thomsen told the BBC: “We are very happy with the way the European Medicines Agency has worked and everybody is disappointed that it is likely it will have to leave the UK. We hope as many of the current 900 staff as possible will follow it to its new home in the EU as it is in everyone’s interest that there is as little disruption as possible for the journey of new medicines to patients.”