Brexit 2017

[jjm]

Ok Leo I will do my best My first post no 39 .I said Brexit before even happens is costing Ireland over half a billion euro in 2016 (true)
Uk wages around 15 euro hr Ireland around 21 (true)
UK have done a good job on holding there cost base (true)
Gap is going to increase in 2017 just my own opinion who knows
Ireland will not be able to manage the fall out from brexit like the Uk will. Speaks for it self( True)

 

[Delboy]

Well after today's revelations up at Dublin airport, if I was a UKIP member, I'd be demanding as hard a border with ourselves here in LaLa land. The Gardai, Dept of Justice, DAA etc gone into full PR spin mode on how important our borders are, how seriously we take the our border controls etc. All spin as the never ending English Language Schools scams have shown over the years.
The media throwing on the Immigration Council CEO all day to tell us how the victims of this crime i.e. the illegal immigrants need as much help and care as can be given to them, how vunerabe they are etc.
All part of the Irish establishment rowing in together.

If the Brits don't insist on a hard border Ireland will become a transit camp for entry to the UK with all the problems that will bring for them and ourselves here.

 

[jjm]

Leo Read my post 179 again look at the !4% .Look at your post 200 Look at Your ref to The British Irish chamber.Now look up Irelands Ecomomist left speechless by 26% groth figure to the British and Irish Trade Association you may even be able to post a link.

 

[Purple]

I am involved in costing where we source material and services add value and export out of our country .In my line of work I am in direct contact with UK firms who supply products and services to Irish multinationals companies lots of them spotted the opening in Ireland when there own industries started to decline .Sometimes they even Joke saying Ireland 15% tax benefit the UK every bit as much as it benefit Ireland . They look after Ireland its very important to them.There view which could be sales talk but I suspect they are correct .There view and it is backed up by what they said when Ireland joined the Euro they purchased more inputs from the EU as a hedge against Sterling.There view is a hard Brexit of a soft brexit one tariff will cancell out the other because of this.There view is that the UK/EU will want to sort Brexit out in a short time frame for market reasons .UK and the big EU member states will be looking to structure brexit if it happens so other members do not follow UK out of EU they both have a vested interest in not letting this happen

I work in manufacturing and we compete with companies here as well as in the UK, Germany, France, the USA and Asia. The UK is our biggest growth market. If you can't compete due to labour costs then you are not using your people efficiently. In a private business, free from the cancer of Trade Unions, it is possible to pay people a good wage and still be competitive by being lean and having efficient processes. The last thing that you should cut is the wages of the production employees. If the people running the business can't get their act together enough to have an efficient organisation then they should cut their own wages.
We compete directly with Poland and China and we pay guys in production way more than their counterparts in the UK.

 

[jjm]

cremeegg Replying to your post 186. This seams to be true. However wont the additional tariffs add to the cost of doing Buisness.
What Tariffs. As it stands ordered through the Uk shipped direct from Manufacture to Ireland before or after Brexit no change .At least that is the story we are getting for a machine Order for Delivery in late 2019 through the UK.It will be japan to Ireland . Servicing and profit I suspect will get caught with extra Tariffs .I expect any of the 19.9 shown on post 200 not UK manufactured /services will no longer come through the uk..This is happening with consumable parts sourced through uk and made in EU.

 

[jjm]

Purple I am delighted for you .We may have our wired crossed . We are saying the same thing. At least we agree on something .There are people on hear who would be happy seeing trade falling off between UK and Ireland.Going off Leo link on post200 exports are falling every year since 2011.Inports are also down .Since 2011 we have increased output and profit and a bigger share of the UK market.I am sure people with UK connection Will be happy to Hear

 

[Purple]

I don't think anyone here is happy about reduced trade. They are just pointing out that's it's happening and that Brexit means it will continue.

 

[jjm]

Come to think of it you are correct Purple.

 

[Leo]

Leo Read my post 179 again look at the !4% .

OK, there you said:

There has being a massive jump in net exports In 2015 26.3% Over 200% more than we exported in 2015 to the UK.

It's not really clear what point you're trying to make there in the context of Brexit.

The rise in exports mentioned is total exports to all markets, not the UK. If we maintain this trend of significant increases in total exports while exports to the UK fall, the UK will become less and less significant over time.

 

[jjm]

Talking to UK people who wanted to remain in the EU .They are not expecting any reduction in trade into Ireland after Brexit they think it will work out in the end .On the other hand almost all the Irish people are expecting trade to reduce.

 

[Wahaay]

Talking to UK people who wanted to remain in the EU .They are not expecting any reduction in trade into Ireland after Brexit they think it will work out in the end .On the other hand almost all the Irish people are expecting trade to reduce.

It's hard to predict until we know the outcome of the negotiations.
Which is why the Irish government's view seems to veer between Dublin will benefit enormously from the City of London's loss and Ireland faces a catastrophic outcome - depending on who is talking.
It might benefit from a specific Brexit minister to coordinate the Government response and plan for the future but the message coming out of Enda Kenny's office is,as usual,very vague.

 

[jjm]

Leo Did you google Jim power on the 26.3 exports in 2015.Most was on paper.If Ireland grow by this amount by 2037 we would be exporting more than china.

 

[Purple]

Leo Did you google Jim power on the 26.3 exports in 2015.Most was on paper.If Ireland grow by this amount by 2037 we would be exporting more than china.

As we say here, If my Auntie had balls she'd be my Uncle.

 

[jjm]

Mayby she will grow a pair to make up for others.

 

[Leo]

Leo Did you google Jim power on the 26.3 exports in 2015.Most was on paper.If Ireland grow by this amount by 2037 we would be exporting more than china.

Can you explain what that has to do with Brexit? This whole saga started when you said:

You need to look at what we are importing from UK and what they are used for.

I asked you to clarify that, as it's not clear what point that was intended to make and what effect Brexit was going to have on the breakdown of what we import from the UK. Are you saying the types of goods we import from the UK are more sensitive to tariffs or not? Only or primarily available from the UK?

 

[Wahaay]

UK shrugs off Brexit fears to be fastest growing G7 economy in 2016
GDP grew 0.6% in fourth quarter and 2% for the year, according to ONS

How it must pain the Remain-loving FT to report the good economic news.

www.ft.com/content/1666262a-e39e-11e6-8405-9e5580d6e5fb?emailid=55ccb875090bff0300e78b63&segmentId=3d08be62-315f-7330-5bbd-af33dc531acb

The UK economy continued to power ahead over the final three months of last year, showing no signs yet of the slowdown that many economists had predicted since the country voted to leave the EU in June.
The economy grew by 0.6 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2016, according to the Office for National Statistics. Growth for the year as a whole was 2 per cent, slightly slower than the 2.2 per cent figure for 2015 but still leaving the UK as the fastest growing economy in the G7 last year.
The preliminary estimate for the fourth quarter was above the consensus forecast of 0.5 per cent growth and the figure as was recorded in the second and third quarters. “Strong consumer spending supported the expansion of the dominant services sector and although manufacturing bounced back from a weaker third quarter, both it and construction remained broadly unchanged over the year,” said Darren Morgan, head of GDP at the ONS.


Meanwhile the first cracks in EU consensus appear with Spain indicating its keen for the EU to get cracking on a trade deal with the UK.

http://uk.businessinsider.com/spain-wants-to-start-brexit-trade-talks-2017-1

 

[Leo]

Brexit hasn't happened yet, still way to early to declare winners and losers. The effects of the currency devaluation haven't filtered through yet, factors such as the 50% rise in second hand cars heading to Ireland will be boosting consumer spending numbers.

The challenge with a trade deal is that it will require a consensus to enact. It'll certainly be better for us if a deal is done, but there are other parties no so keen to go down that road that can block it.

 

[Duke of Marmalade]

Wahaay I haven't checked the source but I presume that yoy growth of 2.2% is in GBP terms. Considering the GBP has fallen 20% against the USD that is an illusory increase in national wealth.

 

[Wahaay]

Brexit hasn't happened yet, still way to early to declare winners and losers. The effects of the currency devaluation haven't filtered through yet, factors such as the 50% rise in second hand cars heading to Ireland will be boosting consumer spending numbers.

The challenge with a trade deal is that it will require a consensus to enact. It'll certainly be better for us if a deal is done, but there are other parties no so keen to go down that road that can block it.

As A50 hasn't been triggered yet we not even close to knowing what the eventual Brexit will be but they're certainly impressive GDP figures for a country where the experts predicted investment and industry would suffer immediately after the referendum vote.
And it's better for the UK to be heading into those negotiations with an economy that appears to be very much on track.
For once the figures also match IMF predictions !

 

[Leo]

...but they're certainly impressive GDP figures for a country where the experts predicted investment and industry would suffer immediately after the referendum vote.

The effects of any investment decisions whether positive or negative would have no discernible impact on GDP figures so quickly.