Bitcoin. Is it a deliberate con ?

[TheBigShort]

those desired ends being to sell it later to someone who places a higher value on it,

Isnt that the same for any investment in property, shares, art, antique collections etc?

Personally I'm of the thinking that it can act as a store of value against fluctuating values of currency - like gold and silver should do.
But those markets are manipulated and corrupted.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/central-banks-have-been-buying-gold-with-a-vengeance-2016-09-19
https://www.ft.com/content/08cafa70-e24f-11e3-a829-00144feabdc0
[broken link removed]

I think that is what has got the G20 and IMF starting to look at this whole thing now. Unless of course I'm reading media reports as some sort of crazy conspiracy theory

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...gulate-bitcoin-to-clamp-down-on-illegal-risks

I don't recall the G20 getting this concerned about property bubbles or stock market bubbles? I am of course speculating and open to the notion that I'm well wide of the mark.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/...y-says-no-evidence-of-gold-price-rigging.html

 

[cremeegg]

See, its this level of discussion that jman0war fpalb and others with the links attached that provide me with confidence that all this is beyond an elaborate scam.
Its clear they are intelligent and have insights to the whole crypto space, including the problems it has and is facing, and are not merely cheerleaders for a new fangled gadget.

You have obviously never been closely involved in a bubble before. This is what makes a bubble successful.

Global Crossing, (previously the fastest maker of billionaires), Colt Telecommunications, Retail Decisions, Baltimore Technologies.

The people who advocated these shares were all better informed than any economist about the market and the products involved. They were themselves, or drew on the knowledge of, highly specialised engineers. No one could disagree with them.

Accountants responded to the success of these companies which seemed to defy previous metrics by developing a new language of accountancy. (EBITDA anyone ?).

And in that case they were not wrong, about the engineering. The infrastructure that Global Crossing built is still in use today, indeed it was in the press during the week. They were totally wrong about the valuation however. Most of the above companies ceased to exist, they were all devalued more than 90%.

Bitcoin will fall to a negligible level because the price has been caught up in a bubble.

Bitcoin will fall to zero if as I suspect that is what it is worth.

On the other hand, the detractors of bitcoin etc seem to be founded on the notion that if they dont understand it, therefore it is worthless.

I dont understand how the differential in a car works. That does not stop me from understanding the value of a car.

I fault a number of posters (here's looking at you Duke) for following the bitcoin enthusiasts down the rabbit hole.

The minutiae, fascinating as I agree they are, don't matter. Either bitcoin offers some new service of value or it does not. If it does either it becomes sucessfully established or it does not.

It seems to me that bitcoin offers nothing of value. Not a means of exchange, not a store of value. I started a thread "Does anyone actually use bitcoin to pay for things" the answer is a clear, No. The price is too volatile for a store of value.

If it does come to be recognised as offering something of value, will it succeed in becoming established (think Betamax). I think not. The forking thing will undermine its reputation, central banks will kill it, there are too many competitors.

 

[Brendan Burgess]

cremeegg

What a superb post. I particularly like the Baltimore Technologies comments and the image of the Duke chasing The Big Short down a rabbit hole.

Brendan

 

[TheBigShort]

The transaction role of cryptocurrency will probably be taken oiver by some other crypto

Im getting mixed messages from those who are detractors of bitcoin. On the one hand they declare it to be worthless, or next to worthless. On the other hand, comments like the above suggest that the concept of cryptocurrency is here to stay. Its just that bitcoin is not the one that will prevail?
So can I take it that the position here is that bitcoin is worthless, but that crypto has value?
If so, I would be interested in learning the basis of that view.

It may well be a bubble, certainly looks like one. That doesnt mean it hasnt value, that it doesnt have longevity.

You have obviously never been closely involved in a bubble before

Bitcoin will fall to zero if as I suspect that is what it is worth.

Suspecting something and knowing something are two different things. I suspect the international monetary system corrupted beyond repair. I would have job convincing most of that right now.

Either bitcoin offers some new service of value or it does not. If it does either it becomes sucessfully established or it does not

Like myself, you appear open to persuasion either way. This differs from other absolutist positions (apparent positions).

It seems to me that bitcoin offers nothing of value. Not a means of exchange, not a store of value. I started a thread "Does anyone actually use bitcoin to pay for things" the answer is a clear, No. The price is too volatile for a store of value.

I agree that as a means of exchange it has not been successful , yet. But it still has that potential.
As a store of value, I disagree.

If it does come to be recognised as offering something of value, will it succeed in becoming established (think Betamax). I think not. The forking thing will undermine its reputation, central banks will kill it, there are too many competitors.

Perhaps, time will tell.

What a superb post.

A good post certainly, as at least a logical, if unconvincing, viewpoint has been offered. This is somewhat refreshing from blanket absolutist positions declaring bitcoin to be worthless based on nothing but, somewhat ironically, hot air.

 

[Conan]

Reading the various posts has been fascinating. It seems to me that by its very nature, the Blockchain underpin is based on the theory that the relationship of crypto- currencies is in inverse proportion to a put-call on the gold v Yen trade. Even allowing for the 25% drop in value today, the high degree of correlation between the fiat currencies and those seeking alpha (romeo?) leads one to conclude that a lower level of attribution should be anticipated for Bitcoin futures.
I fully accept that whether viewed as a time-weighted instrument or one of pure speculation, the prognosis for bitcoin must be viewed through the lense of a narrowing inverse yield curve. Looking at the current 10year bond yield versus the projected inflation numbers, it is indeed a cause of concern.
In a market seeking rotation to rotation, the current valuation metric must be a catalyst for reviewing the Catalonian Debt market. And when you add Brexit, any sharp re-pricing in Equities can only move the dial upwards. So whether Bitcoin or Ethrium, based on the Subjective Theory of Value, the mining numbers as recently published by RTZ suggest that Satoshi has definitely gone underground.

 

[Brendan Burgess]

Reading the various posts has been fascinating. It seems to me that by its very nature, the Blockchain underpin is based on the theory that the relationship of crypto- currencies is in inverse proportion to a put-call on the gold v Yen trade. Even allowing for the 25% drop in value today, the high degree of correlation between the fiat currencies and those seeking alpha (romeo?) leads one to conclude that a lower level of attribution should be anticipated for Bitcoin futures.
I fully accept that whether viewed as a time-weighted instrument or one of pure speculation, the prognosis for bitcoin must be viewed through the lense of a narrowing inverse yield curve. Looking at the current 10year bond yield versus the projected inflation numbers, it is indeed a cause of concern.
In a market seeking rotation to rotation, the current valuation metric must be a catalyst for reviewing the Catalonian Debt market. And when you add Brexit, any sharp re-pricing in Equities can only move the dial upwards. So whether Bitcoin or Ethrium, based on the Subjective Theory of Value, the mining numbers as recently published by RTZ suggest that Satoshi has definitely gone underground.

In case any people new to this have any trouble following Conan's incisive analysis, I translated it into French using Google Translate and then back again into English and it came up with the following:

"What goes up must come down"

Brendan

 

[TheBigShort]

What goes up must come down"

But by how much Brendan, all the way to zero? Can you translate that from Conans post?

 

[jman0war]

Bitcoin has had fairly regular price drops of 25 and 30% before.
Any particular reason to believe this time is different?

 

[Brendan Burgess]

I think that "a lower level of attribution" is a euphemism for a drop to zero.

But some of Conan's replies, and this one in particular, are often vague and difficult to interpret.

So the faithful could interpret it as meaning that he expects Bitcoin to double in value.

Brendan

 

[Brendan Burgess]

Bitcoin has had fairly regular price drops of 25 and 30% before.
Any particular reason to believe this time is different?

Hi jman

Bitcoin is worthless.

At some stage it will fall to zero.

You are quite right that it might not be this time. It could be just a "correction", and it may resume an upward trend tomorrow before it eventually crashes to zero.

What is different this time is that it is from a higher figure - $20,000.

It's possible that the opening of futures markets may well hasten its correct valuation. People can now sell it short which was not really possible on a serious exchange up until this week.

Brendan

 

[BreadKettle]

People can now sell it short which was not really possible on a serious exchange up until this week.

Opinions are ok, they can be written off once the listener realises you don't know what you're talking about, but in the interests of integrity you really shouldn't state things that are completely incorrect as fact.

 

[Duke of Marmalade]

I agree that as a means of exchange it has not been successful , yet. But it still has that potential.
As a store of value, I disagree.

You certainly have opened your mind. You are probably the only person on the planet who thinks bitcoin is a store of value.

 

[jman0war]

From what I'm reading Bitcoin is only up +1200% this year now.
Shocking stuff.

 

[Brendan Burgess]

in the interests of integrity you really shouldn't state things that are completely incorrect as fact.

Hi BK

If I have stated something which is factually incorrect, please correct it and provide a link to it.

I learn from my mistakes.

Brendan

 

[jman0war]

Hi BK

If I have stated something which is factually incorrect, please correct it and provide a link to it.

I learn from my mistakes.

Brendan

BitMex allowed traders to short since a long time.

 

[BreadKettle]

Hi BK

If I have stated something which is factually incorrect, please correct it and provide a link to it.

I learn from my mistakes.

Brendan

Sorry - I refer to the ability to short, Bitfinex and Kraken amongst others have offered margin trading BTC/USD pairs for some time. Kraken does BTC/EUR too. You can withdraw in fiat on those two as well so you don't need to get your hands too dirty handling those worthless bitcoins (and if you can handle it there is Bitmex too for x100 leverage).

Note Krakens engine is struggling a bit under the current volume. That notwithstanding I would consider these exchanges pretty serious, daily volume in the billions.

 

[TheBigShort]

You certainly have opened your mind. You are probably the only person on the planet who thinks bitcoin is a store of value.

You appear to not to be paying attention to anything on these bitcoin threads, let alone to anything that is happening in the world outside your own comfort zone.
Why is that?

 

[TheBigShort]

There it is again, that unexplained conflicting message;

The transaction role of cryptocurrency will probably be taken over by some other crypto not subject to such volatility.

Bitcoin is worthless.

At some stage it will fall to zero.

Bitcoin is doomed to failure, but crytpocurrency has a future. Anything particular crypto? Bcash? Litecoin?

 

[Brendan Burgess]

People can now sell it short which was not really possible on a serious exchange up until this week.

Sorry - I refer to the ability to short, Bitfinex and Kraken amongst others have offered margin trading BTC/USD pairs for some time. Kraken does BTC/EUR too.

So I have said nothing wrong. For the first time, people can short Bitcoin on a serious exchange. Even with the CME, there are concerns that a winning bet on shorting Bitcoin would be met. So there is no point in taking the risk on these other Bitcoin based exchanges.

Since writing that first post, I see that IG Index is doing CFDs and I will look into them.

Brendan

 

[BreadKettle]

So I have said nothing wrong. For the first time, people can short Bitcoin on a serious exchange. Even with the CME, there are concerns that a winning bet on shorting Bitcoin would be met. So there is no point in taking the risk on these other Bitcoin based exchanges.

Since writing that first post, I see that IG Index is doing CFDs and I will look into them.

Brendan

That just makes no sense at all. Today and last night alone during the correction, there was literally millions made by shorting Bitcoin on those exchanges. What exactly is the concern, who is it shares this concern about shorts not being paid out on the exchanges I listed?