Bitcoin. Is it a deliberate con ?

Leo said:
I'd wager he knows the crypto space a lot better than anyone here. His points on transaction fees and lead times are quite valid, without those being addresses, bitcoin will never be viable as a currency.
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Actually in order for bitcoin or bitcoin cash to be sustainable, it will require transaction fees as eventually the cap on the number of coins issued will be reached.
Currently the cost of running and securing the network is largely being paid for by coin generation (mining reward).
But that's not a permanent state.
When all the coins have been mined, how will the network operate?
There won't be any coin reward to keep miners mining.

Those aren't my musings, but come from the core developers.
Have a read of this: https://medium.com/@rusty_lightning/the-three-economic-eras-of-bitcoin-d43bf0cf058a
Roger Ver and some other CEO's built their companies in that 1st era.
If they were as knowledgeable about bitcoin as you suggest, they must have foreseen the inevitability that 'free transactions' were not sustainable.

Infact, going back to the early days: 2010 Hal Finney explained the problem of network scaling and said that a Layer 2 solution is required.
Bitcoin itself cannot scale to have every single financial transaction in the world be broadcast to everyone and included in the block chain. There needs to be a secondary level of payment systems which is lighter weight and more efficient. Likewise, the time needed for Bitcoin transactions to finalize will be impractical for medium to large value purchases.
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https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=2500.msg34211#msg34211

This is a WIP, but a lot of developer time hereto been wasted on forks.
 
See, its this level of discussion that jman0war fpalb and others with the links attached that provide me with confidence that all this is beyond an elaborate scam.
Its clear they are intelligent and have insights to the whole crypto space, including the problems it has and is facing, and are not merely cheerleaders for a new fangled gadget.

On the other hand, the detractors of bitcoin etc seem to be founded on the notion that if they dont understand it, therefore it is worthless.

Im open to persuasion either way and will act in what I perceive to my self-interest. At this juncture, its firmly in the camp of embracing cryptocurrencies.
 
I would not agree with you on this. The fact that supporters of Bitcoin are making good points on how wonderful this is does not mean it is wonderful. I have spent the last month reading here and elsewhere and despite the passion for support for this I cannot really see how this will not finally end badly.
 
At least with the Tulip bubble, one got a tulip.
There is nothing backing Bitcoin. It is simply the stupid trading with the deluded.
 
john luc said:
I would not agree with you on this. The fact that supporters of Bitcoin are making good points on how wonderful this is does not mean it is wonderful. I have spent the last month reading here and elsewhere and despite the passion for support for this I cannot really see how this will not finally end badly.
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I would recommend avoiding, or at least dividing commentary that says 'bitcoin is wonderful and will make you rich' and commentary that is focused based on the technical issues. Even if you cant get your head around a lot of it (like me) you can develop a sense of the prevailing sentiment.
The point is, bitcoin will fail not because it is worthless now, but because something superior emerges or a fundamental flaw is unearthed in the interim.
For sure, the price may fall back somewhat and people will lose out, but equally the price could advance more.
 
Conan said:
At least with the Tulip bubble, one got a tulip.
There is nothing backing Bitcoin. It is simply the stupid trading with the deluded.
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See, its this level of thinking that convinces me that detractors have little to offer. Should I decide to sell my bitcoin on this sentiment, or should I buy on what I have been opening my mind to and its potential?
 
TheBigShort said:
On the other hand, the detractors of bitcoin etc seem to be founded on the notion that if they dont understand it, therefore it is worthless.
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Not me. Before I got involved in this forum I would say I had next to 0% understanding of its nuts and bolts. I was very skeptical of its tulip like price growth but gave it the benefit of the doubt that there was some substance behind it all as a currency once the price stabilised.

But the more I have learnt, much of it from some very informed AAM contributors but also from other searches, and now that my understanding is approaching 10% I just have to keep pinching myself.

Over 1,000 lookalikes,
Bitcoin herself starting to produce clones at an exponential rate,
miners solving gigantic trial and error brain dead puzzles,
any economists I can source all saying it is a bubble,
a hedge fund supporter advising no more than 1% of liquid net worth in BTC,
same guy saying there is a non trivial chance that the price will go to zero,
Branson saying as a gimmick that he will accept BTC for his space travel but would cash them in;

well any niggling thoughts that I originally harboured that there must be something to this have totally vanished.:(

Maybe it's a case of a little knowledge is a bad thing:oops:

The fact B/S that all this has opened your mind goes some way to explain why you are so susceptible to some of the most cuckoo geopolitical conspiracy theories.:rolleyes:
 
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john luc said:
I would not agree with you on this.
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Hi John,

I would disagree with your disagreement!

My understanding of The Big Short's central point was that he was encouraged and comforted by the calibre of post and poster on the "pro-bitcoin" side and that such posts compared well when contrasted with "the other side". I concur with this view.

Whether BTC ends well is a related but separate point. In this regard, TBS specifically says that he is "open to persuasion either way" - which again is a perfectly reasonable position to adopt INEO.
 
Duke of Marmalade said:
Over 1,000 lookalikes, Bitcoin herself starting to produce clones at an exponential rate, any economists I can source all saying it is a bubble;
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It may well be a bubble, certainly looks like one. That doesnt mean it hasnt value, that it doesnt have longevity.
Property, stocks, etc can go into bubbles. A price correction occurs, and we move on.
Ive listed the 180 different fiat currencies currently in circulation in another topic. This is the tip if the iceberg, thousands of fiat currencies have come and gone.
In my time on this planet we had the £IR punt, first pegged to stg, then free-floating, devalued 3?4? times? And now the Euro, destined to be a leading world currency providing stability to our economy. Within a decade or so, the country was bankrupt.:(
 
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Duke of Marmalade said:
The fact B/S that all this has opened your mind goes some way to explain why you are so susceptible to some of the most cuckoo geopolitical conspiracy theories.:rolleyes:
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:D:D:D

Which ones? I might actually open a thread on that "Cukoo Geopolitical Conspiracy Theories and their effects on the price of Turnip"!:p​
 
B/S maybe you are not aware of the experiences of a certain German scientist. His name was Dr Frankenstein. He developed a most amazing technology capable of producing a human like monster. His peers, rightly, marveled at this amazing fete of technology - many even posited usefulness for its end product.

The ignorant populace didn't understand a thing about the technology but they decided fairly unanimously that they did not like the product. Ok some did marvel at the technology and suggested that it might have useful purposes, perhaps curing some diseases.

The moral is that no matter how wonderful the technology the end product can only attain value in its own right. A secure anonymous transferable entry in a de-centralised computer ledger has no value.
 
Duke of Marmalade said:
The moral is that no matter how wonderful the technology the end product can only attain value in its own right. A secure anonymous transferable entry in a de-centralised computer ledger has no value.
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Perhaps you are not familiar with Subjective Theory of Value.

The subjective theory of value is a theory of value which advances the idea that the value of a good is not determined by any inherent property of the good, nor by the amount of labor necessary to produce the good, but instead value is determined by the importance an acting individual places on a good for the achievement of his desired ends.
 
I have a pretty extensive record collection, of vinyl and cd's collected over the last 30yrs (ive lost count). These days most of them are stored in attic and kept in good condition. I have an emotional attachment to them and it would take someone in the order of €10,000+ before I would even consider off-loading them.
On the other hand, there are no rarities or anything like that, other than a lot are on vinyl. Realistically the market value is probably in the region of €500. Even still, to find a buyer might take some time. A second hand record store, or ebay etc, would be best option. But anyone buying to sell as 2nd stock is probably not going to offer more than €150 for the lot.
My wife, on yet another hand, does not share my taste in music much, and would gladly pay €50 to anyone to get shot of the lot.
 
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Duke of Marmalade said:
Jayz Dan, I keep falling for your gambits, so Dr Frankenstein was an Italian. Eppur si muove my point stands.
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So you make a mistake, I point it out to you respectfully and this is a gambit on my behalf? Interesting characterisation, beats Banagher anyway.

I was just correcting the record - wouldn't want any misinformation to appear in a BTC related thread? :rolleyes:

Warning: Multiple gambit alerts :oops:o_O

Speaking of misinformation, you do know that Frankenstein was not a doctor and considered himself Swiss?

So, apart from not being German, not being Italian and not being a doctor........what have the Romans ever done for us?!
 
jman0war said:
Perhaps you are not familiar with Subjective Theory of Value.

The subjective theory of value is a theory of value which advances the idea that the value of a good is not determined by any inherent property of the good, nor by the amount of labor necessary to produce the good, but instead value is determined by the importance an acting individual places on a good for the achievement of his desired ends.
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Okay I should have qualified my statement by using "ultimate value". Clearly there are those who currently place a value on BTC "for the achievement of his desired ends" those desired ends being to sell it later to someone who places a higher value on it, but heck we have had plenty of discussion as to whether this is sustainable in the absence of ultimate or intrinsic value.
 
jman0war said:
Actually in order for bitcoin or bitcoin cash to be sustainable, it will require transaction fees as eventually the cap on the number of coins issued will be reached. ...
If they were as knowledgeable about bitcoin as you suggest, they must have foreseen the inevitability that 'free transactions' were not sustainable.
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Neither I nor the article suggested there could ever be a scenario where there are no transaction fees. Miners already receive transaction fees alongside the potential bonus of mining new bitcoin. The problem is the scale of those fees mean will remain too expensive for smaller transactions. When the mining reward ends, transaction fees aren't likely to drop. The average transaction fee hit $41.619 yesterday.

That, the lengthening transaction times and the scaling issue you mention mean bitcoin is a long way off ever becoming usable as a currency. It'll take a lot of forks and other significant changes to the architecture to move from the current theoretical maximum of ~7 transactions per second (currently only reaching 3-4) to match Visa's ~50,000 tps. Achieving consensus in the bitcoin community to support such changes is proving difficult, and may ultimately be its downfall.
 
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