Key Post Bitcoin is a clearly identifiable economic bubble

[WolfeTone]

I recommend you read the Facebook White Paper (available on another thread).

Thanks, it certainly looks an exciting prospect. The age of cryptocurrency is really upon us now.
It really does amaze me that after reading that Libra whitepaper that some people are still dismissive of bitcoin. I admit I am no expert in the mechanics of all this stuff, but the principles of bitcoin, decentralization, global currency, ease of transfer, etc are built into this crypto.
To me, it basically takes the bitcoin concept and is aiming to deliver it to the masses what bitcoin has failed to do to date.
And with the backing of the Libra Foundation it certainly has the infrastructure in place to do just that.
But there are questions. It is not decentralized. It is explicit that the currency, and value of it, will be managed by central authorities to maintain a stable value. That smacks of price manipulation - but then that is probably just my cynicism kicking in.
Im sure FB, Visa, Paypal, MasterCard and the "high value central banks" can be wholly trusted not to interfere in mechanics of currency valuation for Libra .
So where does the Libra Foundation set up? Oh, yeh, Switzerland......the home of unaccountable, non-transparent banking.

Some things crack me up, and this is one of them.
But its good news overall. The monetary system is being shaken up and is being transformed. The internet is the great disruptor of our time. The Libra crypto is a great idea, a global cryptocurrency backed by fiat backed assets. The crypto cannot be manipulated, but what about the fiat assets it is backed by?
How will anybody measure the true value of one unit of Libra? What could possibly be used to measure its true value?

Bitcoin.

 

[RedOnion]

It is currently backed by $150bn

You seem to have missed completely @Duke of Marmalade 's point about what's wrong with the above statement.

But then I know you'll say you didn't say what you said...

 

[WolfeTone]

Bitcoin was first, foremost and end, designed by Satoshi to be a transactional currency which overcame certain perceived deficiencies in conventional fiat currencies.

FB was first, and foremost, a crude and childish application to rate the looks of women online - now its into global cryptocurrencies.
Viagra was first, and foremost a treatment for chest pain.
The Post-it note was actually created when the creator was trying to develop a super-strong adhesive.

 

[WolfeTone]

But then I know you'll say you didn't say what you said...

I knew you would say that!

 

[tecate]

Golly, good reminder there tecate, yes I did help out the earls with WU, one in Cameroon (which impressed me) the other in Madrid. It was worth the fees but I can see that in the unlikely event of the earls being similarly stranded at some future date, I would appreciate the availability of a Facebook coin.

Always happy to jog your memory, your dukeness. The remittance market is valued at approx. $600 billion p.a. according to the World Bank. Just as an FYI.

But I detect here a really mind boggling revisionism. Bitcoin was first, foremost and end, designed by Satoshi to be a transactional currency which overcame certain perceived deficiencies in conventional fiat currencies. It was always premised on the basis that it would one day gain critical mass as a transactional currency.

Glad to see your such a fan of Satoshi. So there is a debate that this was his original intention. He/she/it is (was?) clearly a smart entity. However, he/she/it is unlikely to be so visionary to know exactly how things would unfold over 10+ years. So a couple of things. I know that you have no patience and if something cant achieve a certain result today, to your mind that's it - it never will. Sorry but I don't share that view.
It's clear - and accepted by all I think - that FBIcoin would be much better placed to effect a transactional digital currency (of sorts) with its 2.3 billion userbase. You think that it (BTC) never will be used for that purpose. It already is - but not at the scale you deem to be a success. Ask BitPay about the billion they processed in payments last year.

Secondly - on what Satoshi would think today and what can oftentimes happen with any type of project, it can find another use case. Remember one of its forerunners (eGold) was based on store of value / digital gold. So you want to apply narrow scope and suggest its not sufficiently used to be a success transactionally - go on ahead. You want to then say that meh, digital gold wasn't its original purpose - so it doesn't matter what potential it has in that regard - go on ahead. But don't expect that I will agree with you.

Furthermore, you are talking about something being 'unfit for purpose' when the tech and ecosystem continue to evolve. Again, we've been here before - to your eyes, if it cant do XYZ today it will never do it. That is not how innovation and technological advancement works - and on that basis, I don't agree with you. You complained previously about scaling whilst lightning network continues to be built out. Price volatility will take a much longer time - but no matter. Meanwhile, FIAT currencies fail all of the time.

 

[WolfeTone]

I have no personal demand for these services as I find existing banking, regulatory, and political governance systems more than adequate to my needs

This is somewhat revealing. You recommend the Libra as reading material but appear to have missed its central point - it is an attempt to establish a global currency for use by billions of people.
That means you and me, and whoever else wants to use it, including the billions of unbanked.

If you think you would have no need for it, and assuming you are generally rational with typical behaviours of most rational people in the developed world, then presumably not many people in the developed world will see the need to use this also?

This doesn't augur well for its future. Unless of course you still haven't grasped the concept of what is occurring in relation to cryptocurrency and realise what FB is about is to get you, and me, and as many people as possible to use its cryptocurrency.

 

[Duke of Marmalade]

This is somewhat revealing. You recommend the Libra as reading material but appear to have missed its central point - it is an attempt to establish a global currency for use by billions of people.
That means you and me, and whoever else wants to use it, including the billions of unbanked.

If you think you would have no need for it, and assuming you are generally rational with typical behaviours of most rational people in the developed world, then presumably not many people in the developed world will see the need to use this also?

This doesn't augur well for its future. Unless of course you still haven't grasped the concept of what is occurring in relation to cryptocurrency and realise what FB is about is to get you, and me, and as many people as possible to use its cryptocurrency.

I will need time to work out what exactly you are asking me here. Meanwhile are you prepared to correct your assertion that btc is backed by $150bn and acknowledge that it is backed by zilch, zero, ziddly squat?

 

[WolfeTone]

I will need time to work out what exactly you are asking me here. Meanwhile are you prepared to correct your assertion that btc is backed by $150bn and acknowledge that it is backed by zilch, zero, ziddly squat?

Correct, its market cap is $200bn.

I get that we wont agree on what is, or is not defined as 'backed by'. I accept my interpretation is different from the conventional definition used in finance.
Being 'backed by' is just a term I use simply to determine price support.
My house is valued at €350,000, that price is 'backed by' estate agents telling prospective buyers that its worth that much, and bankers who are willing to lend that amount to prospective buyers.

 

[elacsaplau]

Had a read of the last few pages just now.

Come back, The Big Short...……..I miss you!

(I think Brendan must also...…...he certainly will name a new branch of syllogisms after him!)

 

[tecate]

Is it really Crypto Christmas!? Bigly, right?

Bitcoin 2020: Make Bitcoin ATH Again

 

[Duke of Marmalade]

I am not a fan of Bitcoin and other Cryptocurrencies, which are not money, and whose value is highly volatile and based on thin air.

Well Boss you’re up against it now. The Donald thinks it’s thin air and not hot air. Sorry, but I am with The Donald and henceforth will use the technical term BOTA.

 

[Brendan Burgess]

To be honest, I would have much preferred if he had endorsed it as the new dollar.

Brendan

 

[Leo]

You cant think of one?

As stated, I don't follow that markets that much, or study their history at all. So I'm not in a position to state there has never been an example such as BitCoin as you are asserting. You're the one who brought up the history of BOHAs, you haven't named another example yet either. You want to give it another try?

 

[Leo]

You complained previously about scaling whilst lightning network continues to be built out.

It's been a while since I heard much about where LN was at. Interesting to see a number of teams actively developing it, and one anonymous entity (LNBIG) now controlling most of the capacity.

I'm still of the opinion that layer 2 solutions bolted on to BitCoin in an attempt to address its technical shortcomings aren't a long term solution. Requiring a BTC transaction to fund a LN channel, then another to close it out will be problematic if LN is to scale.

 

[WolfeTone]

As stated, I don't follow that markets that much, or study their history at all. So I'm not in a position to state there has never been an example such as BitCoin as you are asserting. You're the one who brought up the history of BOHAs, you haven't named another example yet either. You want to give it another try?

Finally, an answer.

No I cannot think of any other BOHA that even remotely resembles the price action and history of bitcoin. I dont think anyone can.
So assertions like this one, referencing the dotcom bubble in the OP of this thread are not appropriate

We are now in the exact same position with Bitcoin.

We are not in the exact same place as the dotcom bubble.
So either bitcoin is redefining the BOHA terminology, or it is being classified incorrectly as such.

 

[Duke of Marmalade]

And yet David Marcus (former paypal and coinbase exec that heads up Libra) is bullish on Bitcoin and sees it as Digital Gold. Go figure.

I looked into Marcus a little in an attempt to figure. He appears to have been a long term fan of btc. Hence on heading up Libra he had to be careful not to reverse previous bullish btc remarks. Instead he damned btc with faint praise. The claim is that Libra addresses (which it does) the glaring flaw in btc - it has no intrinsic value, it is a BOTHA. Satoshi also identified this rather fatal weakness for a putative transactional currency.
So where was the faint praise? Marcus now identifies complimentary roles for btc and Libra. Libra is the boy to do all the things Satoshi set out to achieve, but btc, having established a market for itself can serve as an uncorrelated asset. Meaning that when all else is falling there is a 50/50 chance btc is rising. This is based on the observation that nobody knows how to value Thin Hot Air so its price can go anywhere, unlike Libra which will be tied to fiat currencies. This logic abandons any attempt to identify an intrinsic value for btc even as a utility - it is simply a blind faith that there will always be people willing to speculate on it irrespective of the zero intrinsic value of THA.
I presume Marcus doesn't actually believe this nonsense.

 

[Leo]

Finally, an answer.

You miss when I said that earlier?

No I cannot think of any other BOHA that even remotely resembles the price action and history of bitcoin.

We've been through 4 or 5 pages where you have failed to mention a single other instance of a BOHA. So you are not in a position to categorically state that BitCoin acting differently to events you have no knowledge of.

 

[WolfeTone]

Well, just as im not in a position to categorically state that bitcoin is acting differently to events I have no knowledge of, by way of not mentioning a single other instance of BOHA.
Then no-one else is in a position to categorically state that bitcoin is acting the same to events that they have no knowledge of, by way of not mentioning a single other instance of BOHA.

And this labelling of bitcoin as BOHA has been going on alot longer than 4 or 5pages. It has been going on nearly 2yrs.

Im beginning to think this talk of bitcoin being BOHA is backed by nothing, zilch, other than some talk that is FOHA.

 

[tecate]

It's been a while since I heard much about where LN was at. Interesting to see a number of teams actively developing it, and one anonymous entity (LNBIG) now controlling most of the capacity.

I'm still of the opinion that layer 2 solutions bolted on to BitCoin in an attempt to address its technical shortcomings aren't a long term solution. Requiring a BTC transaction to fund a LN channel, then another to close it out will be problematic if LN is to scale.

There's been a body of work done on it - and it's made good progress. However, exactly as evidenced in this sub-forum and as called out by Antanopoulos here, people have no patience when it comes to tech. Does it address a shortcoming? Absolutely. With everything there's a tradeoff. The newer projects have an advantage in getting the fundamentals right technologically. However, on the flip side, it appears there's always a trade off.

I looked into Marcus a little in an attempt to figure. He appears to have been a long term fan of btc. Hence on heading up Libra he had to be careful not to reverse previous bullish btc remarks. Instead he damned btc with faint praise.

What does this even mean, your dukeness! You doing a Uri Geller spoon bending routine here? The donald will have you up on charges of fake news.

The claim is that Libra addresses (which it does) the glaring flaw in btc - it has no intrinsic value, it is a BOTHA. Satoshi also identified this rather fatal weakness for a putative transactional currency.

No it doesn't. It addresses the price volatility issue. It also will be propelled via an organisation that can get it out there and challenge regulation, the banks and leverage 2.3 billion worldwide users. That's their opportunity.

So where was the faint praise? Marcus now identifies complimentary roles for btc and Libra.
I presume Marcus doesn't actually believe this nonsense.

You are quite literally making stuff up now to meet your narrative. Marcus was on the board of Coinbase before he signed up with FB/Libra.


And given you saying this =>

I have no personal demand for these services as I find existing banking, regulatory, and political governance systems more than adequate to my needs

, I'm not sure why you are all gung ho on FBIcoin. It's going to shake that world up no end. Here's a little bed time reading for you.

 

[Duke of Marmalade]

What does this even mean, your dukeness!
You are quite literally making stuff up now to meet your narrative. Marcus was on the board of Coinbase before he signed up with FB/Libra.

I presume you read Marcus' comment on btc/Libra; paraphrasing "btc/Libra have complimentary roles, Libra as a trransactonal currency, btc as a uncorrelated asset". Okay, no praise for btc there I suppose, faint or otherwise.

Here’s my biggest prediction: Facebook’s foray into cryptocurrency will end up benefiting bitcoin. It will take time, but Facebook will greatly accelerate the pace of teaching people about cryptocurrencies. And when this happens, more people will turn to bitcoin for one simple reason—bitcoin is scarce, while Facebook’s cryptocurrency is not. People will migrate over time to the most honest ledger for storing their hard-earned wealth—and that’s not fiat currencies or derivatives thereof, including Facebook’s cryptocurrency.

Agree with the diagnosis not with the prognosis. If FBIcoin catches on people will actually get to understand what they are and they will see clearly that compared to FBIcoin, btc is pure BOTHA. Poor Caitlin, she is obviously unaware of the near 8,000 btc lookalikes.
I have no problem with FBIcoin. It could be useful to attack Venezuala syndrome, but personally I see no need for it myself. Interesting reflections by Caitlin on where the interest on the reserves will go, especially considering that on € assets that interest will be negative.