Key Post Bitcoin is a clearly identifiable economic bubble

Leo

Moderator
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10,294
You are defining BOHA as "something that has never had any value".
I'm not, that is the universally accepted meaning of the phrase. It is derived from the phrase 'full of hot air', which as I'm sure you know means talking a lot without saying anything of value.

To suggest a bag of hot air is anything other than valueless at all times is to suggest the existence of a market where one can sell quantities of heated air?
 

WolfeTone

Registered User
Messages
271
I'm not, that is the universally accepted meaning of the phrase. It is derived from the phrase 'full of hot air', which as I'm sure you know means talking a lot without saying anything of value.

To suggest a bag of hot air is anything other than valueless at all times is to suggest the existence of a market where one can sell quantities of heated air?
Not at all. What is of value today may be worthless, and nothing more than a bag of hot air, tomorrow. Do you want to buy my Anglo Irish Shares for €1,000. They come in a bag.
I could easily argue that you penchant for pendantry is nothing more than hot air. You probably place value on what you say.
 

Leo

Moderator
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10,294
Not at all. What is of value today may be worthless, and nothing more than a bag of hot air, tomorrow.
No, a bag of hot air is at all times worthless. You spoke of the history of bags of hot air, not of things that became valueless to the point if being worth the equivalent of a bag of hot air. Yet more revisionism.
 

WolfeTone

Registered User
Messages
271
No, a bag of hot air is at all times worthless. You spoke of the history of bags of hot air, not of things that became valueless to the point if being worth the equivalent of a bag of hot air. Yet more revisionism.
Ok, for the sake of further fruitless argument, lets accept your definition of BOHA that it relates to something that is worthless at all times. Lets accept that my references to Anglo, Enron etc were not appropriate.

So bitcoin is BOHA - worthless now, worthless at all times.

Is there any product, asset or thing, that throughout its existence, being worthless at all times, like bitcoin, that in any way shape or form reflects the price action and history of bitcoin?
If you, or anybody else, cannot think of an example, then perhaps that is because there is no obvious or practical example.
If that is the case, then bitcoin, by this reasoning is different to all other BOHA previous.
For this BOHA, this time is different!
 

Leo

Moderator
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10,294
Ok, for the sake of further fruitless argument, lets accept your definition of BOHA that it relates to something that is worthless at all times. Lets accept that my references to Anglo, Enron etc were not appropriate.
Not my definition, but finally!

Is there any product, asset or thing, that throughout its existence, being worthless at all times, like bitcoin, that in any way shape or form reflects the price action and history of bitcoin?
If you, or anybody else, cannot think of an example, then perhaps that is because there is no obvious or practical example.
You'd need to be familiar with every item that was ever bestowed value since the dawn of time to be able to categorically say there has never been such a case. Personally, I can't think of any example where a BOHA was bought and sold for significant sums, but I'm not a student of history.

If that is the case, then bitcoin, by this reasoning is different to all other BOHA previous.
For this BOHA, this time is different!
If we can't point to a previous example of a real BOHA that experienced such a meteoric rise, then perhaps we need to consider the possibility that this might be a first? So, rather than being different to previous BOHAs, maybe this is just different to everything that went before? If it is indeed different, then we have to accept we don't have enough data to compare with to suggest that multiple price recoveries offers any proof of value. Again, not a history buff, so I can't say for sure.
 

Brendan Burgess

Founder
Messages
38,143
Wolfie

As I have pointed out, you are using Shortie logic.

"Bitcoin's volatility is the same as the volatility of things which have intrinsic value.
Therefore Bitcoin has intrinsic value."

It does not follow.

Just as it does not follow
A dog has 4 legs.
That animal there has 4 legs.
Therefore that animal is a dog. ( Why, you might ask, is it purring?)

Brendan
 

WolfeTone

Registered User
Messages
271
You'd need to be familiar with every item that was ever bestowed value since the dawn of time to be able to categorically say there has never been such a case.
You cant think of one?

maybe this is just different to everything that went before?
Yep, looks like it, this time is different!
A valueless item, that has no value now, nor ever had any value is currently backed with some $150bn+.
BOHA is being redefined. Or perhaps, BOHA is just the wrong classification for bitcoin?
 

tecate

Frequent Poster
Messages
563
As I have pointed out, you are using Shortie logic.
You've a prediction in for $1k per BTC by Dec. 31st....so I guess we don't have long to find out. To go from where it is right now to 1k would mean that it is effectively dead (as the mining industry would be decimated.

It's a short time to find out if you're right and BTC has no value whatsoever (or as much as). Will you change your mind when you're wrong - or will we be doing this all over again in 2020? :cool:
 

WolfeTone

Registered User
Messages
271
Wolfie

As I have pointed out, you are using Shortie logic.

"Bitcoin's volatility is the same as the volatility of things which have intrinsic value.
Therefore Bitcoin has intrinsic value."

It does not follow.

Just as it does not follow
A dog has 4 legs.
That animal there has 4 legs.
Therefore that animal is a dog. ( Why, you might ask, is it purring?)

Brendan
Brendan

Bitcoin has no value. It never had any value. It is BOHA.

It is currently backed by $150bn. Can you identify one, just one example of a BOHA, throughout the history of finance and economics that has a price action and/or history that in any small way reflects the price action and history of bitcoin?

Certainly Leo would appear to consider the possibility that this BOHA is different. Would you consider the bitcoin BOHA to be different to any other BOHA?
 
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Duke of Marmalade

Frequent Poster
Messages
2,431
It is currently backed by $150bn.
oh dear:oops:
Wolfie I recommend you read the Facebook White Paper (available on another thread).
It points out that the main diff between its coin and other cryptos is that the others are backed by zilch. Interestingly, it unapologetically refers to its coin having “intrinsic value”. Essentially it is backed by monetary fiat assets. The btc zealots when challenged as to the intrinsic value of the crypto invariably riposte with “fiat has no intrinsic value either”. It was great to read the clear refutation of this argument.
In fact I recommend all to read the FWP. It confirms every view I have formed of crypto’s. Boy, are they BOHAs:eek:
At risk of going a tad off topic. It’s three main claims for its own coin are:
1. Send money quickly
2. Security of cryptography
3. Freedom to transmit across borders
I have no personal demand for these services as I find existing banking, regulatory, and political governance systems more than adequate to my needs but I could see a possible demand in, say, Mbandaka.
To give a flavor for the FWP wisdom, it observes that the overwhelming main uses of current crypto’s is for speculation and investment. I have dabbled a tad in its speculative attributes but I can never see it being an attractive investment for me.
 

tecate

Frequent Poster
Messages
563
oh dear:oops:
Wolfie I recommend you read the Facebook White Paper (available on another thread).
It points out that the main diff between its coin and other cryptos is that the others are backed by zilch. Interestingly, it unapologetically refers to its coin having “intrinsic value”. Essentially it is backed by monetary fiat assets. The btc zealots when challenged as to the intrinsic value of the crypto invariably riposte with “fiat has no intrinsic value either”. It was great to read the clear refutation of this argument.
In fact I recommend all to read the FWP. It confirms every view I have formed of crypto’s. Boy, are they BOHAs:eek:
At risk of going a tad off topic. It’s three main claims for its own coin are:
1. Send money quickly
2. Security of cryptography
3. Freedom to transmit across borders
I have no personal demand for these services as I find existing banking, regulatory, and political governance systems more than adequate to my needs but I could see a possible demand in, say, Mbandaka.
To give a flavor for the FWP wisdom, it observes that the overwhelming main uses of current crypto’s is for speculation and investment. I have dabbled a tad in its speculative attributes but I can never see it being an attractive investment for me.
And yet David Marcus (former paypal and coinbase exec that heads up Libra) is bullish on Bitcoin and sees it as Digital Gold. Go figure.

I have no time for Facebook but I see them doing real crypto a solid here (inadvertently of course) - getting movement on regulation and potentially on-boarding people into crypto (actual crypto). As regards you being all happy, so you're going to tell us that you will quite happily use Western Union again with its 7-10% fees (as you told me you did before) when you can have an alternative that costs nothing? Yeah, that's real smart your dukeness.
 

Brendan Burgess

Founder
Messages
38,143
Would you consider the bitcoin BOHA to be different to any other BOHA?
Of course it's different in many ways.

But because as I have pointed out to you on so many occasions, the fact that it is different doesn't mean that it has value.

It is no different in the key feature - it has never been worth anything - it is not worth anything - and it will never be worth anything.

Brendan
 

Duke of Marmalade

Frequent Poster
Messages
2,431
And yet David Marcus (former paypal and coinbase exec that heads up Libra) is bullish on Bitcoin and sees it as Digital Gold. Go figure.

I have no time for Facebook but I see them doing real crypto a solid here (inadvertently of course) - getting movement on regulation and potentially on-boarding people into crypto (actual crypto). As regards you being all happy, so you're going to tell us that you will quite happily use Western Union again with its 7-10% fees (as you told me you did before) when you can have an alternative that costs nothing? Yeah, that's real smart your dukeness.
Golly, good reminder there tecate, yes I did help out the earls with WU, one in Cameroon (which impressed me) the other in Madrid. It was worth the fees but I can see that in the unlikely event of the earls being similarly stranded at some future date, I would appreciate the availability of a Facebook coin.
On your main point I post the following Google:
Google said:
If there was a competition between Libra and Bitcoin, Marcus seems to have conceded rather than overselling the facts. Moreover, he mentioned that Bitcoin is a ‘decorrelated asset’; an asset that has no particular utility; however, ubiquitous and limited in nature like Gold.
"decorrelated asset" that is utter troika, if you pardon my language:oops: And this is not just the humble duke against the great Marcus. The overwhelming view of academic and professional financial thought is that crypto is sheer troika.
But I detect here a really mind boggling revisionism. Bitcoin was first, foremost and end, designed by Satoshi to be a transactional currency which overcame certain perceived deficiencies in conventional fiat currencies. It was always premised on the basis that it would one day gain critical mass as a transactional currency. That gave rise to a speculative value even before it had attained its destiny. That then gave it the impression of being a speculative play or indeed an "uncorrelated" asset class, but all of this was based on its ultimate success as an alternative transactional currency. But Marcus now amazingly moves the goalposts. No, bitcoin is not fit for purpose as a transactional currency, that is the role of Facebook coin, but bitcoin is welcome to slot in as an uncorrelated asset play, completely ignoring that this latter is totally dependent on its ultimate role as a viable transactional currency.
Truly unbelievable!
 
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