Bitcoin in a hyperbolic bubble

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Duke of Marmalade said:
Trust me @joe sod I have not lost the faith.
I believe in Nouriel.
I believe in Yellen.
I believe in Paul "Fax Machine" Krugman
I believe in Joseph Stiglitz

Just because I can cite from the Koran does not make me an Ayatollah!
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You've brought 'Merkle Trees' into the discussion, Dukey - I think you're not going to be able to find your way out of the crypto rabbit hole at this point. One things for sure though, Roubini/Yellen/Fax Machine Guy/Stiglitz didn't bring you up to speed on that. I guess props go to either Gary Gensler or Andreas Antonopoulos on that...

Dazed in Pontoon said:
On this topic, Jack Mallers is probably the guy doing the most in the bitcoin ecosystem to improve the payments use-case.
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On the waiting list for product roll-out. This should put an end to the big fat fees these remittance services & money service businesses are charging on cross border transfers.
 
@EmmDee unfortunately many treat it as a zero-sum game and you can only exist as either a naysayer or bitcoin maximilist. There is no acceptance of the often valid critique of BTC use cases and comparison to comparable technologies/processes. You will see this as Tecate refuses to respond to somebody like myself who has worked on crypto projects, is part of the community but still criticizes it.

For example, BTC / Blockchain allow for immutable transactions on a decentralized network, whilst something like Fedwire will rely on a host of external/internal controls to try and make transactions immutable. Migrate Fedwire onto DLT and you've negated one of the differences with BTC. The only remaining piece is the decentralized aspect, which I argue is not necessary for every situation.

The potential real game-changer is blockchain, and I firmly believe the term was coined to separate itself for BTC and gain legitmisation allowing people to sell it as a solution.

I don't believe that BTC is the solution to everything, but it has brought interesting concepts and incumbent markets will react and leverage to stay relevant. Perfect example is Central Bank Digital currencies, they don't really need them but they are trying to stay relevant.
 
Duke of Marmalade said:
I wonder what exactly this means. Several aspects come to mind. A chain of blocks of data, time stamped and linked by their hashes. Private/public keys. Compression of multiple transactions into Merkle trees. All these things might have a usage in conventional banking. But Proof of Work? Please don't tell me banks are engaging in zillions of hash puzzles per second. As Yellen said, the most inefficient mechanism one could imagine.
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The most common (I believe) is Ripple Net. Has about 100 bank members I think
 
EmmDee said:
But I'm not sure why you feel the need to make it a "zero sum game" vs traditional banking networks.
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I have found this about Bitcoin investors in general. I wrote a blog last week about why I wouldn't be investing in Bitcoin. I got the most emails for this post as I have for any of the 350 blogs I have written over the last 7.5 years. I then read another blog by someone with a must bigger following than me who got over 900 comments when he sold halve of his Bitcoin position in line with his defined investment strategy.

It reminds me of people investing in property during the Celtic Tiger. That was the only investment you could make and anything else is wrong. No, there are different forms of investing. Bitcoin is here and will probably be here to stay but that doesn't mean people are wrong because they don't want to invest in it.


Steven
http://www.bluewaterfp.ie (www.bluewaterfp.ie)
 
SBarrett said:
I wrote a blog last week about why I wouldn't be investing in Bitcoin. I got the most emails for this post as I have for any of the 350 blogs I have written over the last 7.5 years.
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These days people usually write blogs for engagement - so I guess you got engagement in that instance! :)

SBarrett said:
No, there are different forms of investing. Bitcoin is here and will probably be here to stay but that doesn't mean people are wrong because they don't want to invest in it.
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I agree - and in 4 years of discussion of the topic here, I have never suggested otherwise - nor have I seen anyone else suggest that. On EmmDee's 'zero sum game' comment, I'm not sure what he has in mind there. On a number of occasions, I've pointed out that this doesn't have to be (and won't be) black or white - winner or loser. Sovereign currencies and banks aren't going away. However, people will have other options available to them and options are good. We'll probably see sovereign currencies and banks perform a hell of a lot better in the future because of that.

As evidenced by the Tether/Bitfinex saga, over a number of years attempts were made to suppress crypto by shutting the industry out of banking services. That's still going on - albeit there has been a change in approach in the US that will filter through elsewhere. Central and establishment bankers have torn strips off crypto up until recently (some still do). I think its more than reasonable to express a counter-view. Hence my comment re. Yellen and the irony of her speaking out within 24 hours of the centralised Fedwire system going offline. I take EmmDee's point that the outage may have been brief but it's still significant in terms of it being essential banking infrastructure.
 
Duke of Marmalade said:
Trust me @joe sod I have not lost the faith.
I believe in Nouriel.
I believe in Yellen.
I believe in Paul "Fax Machine" Krugman
I believe in Joseph Stiglitz
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Jeez Duke, you have gone full circle here with the cult-like following.

What will happen when one of them changes tack and says bitcoin has value?
 
WolfeTone said:
What will happen when one of them changes tack and says bitcoin has value?
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Nouriel tried to walk it back in November but there's zero goodwill to let his 'fax machine' moment go... and so he's quadrupled down on it again instead. If Ian Paisley hated bitcoin, Nouriel is the Italian-American version of what that looks like.
WolfeTone said:
Jeez Duke, you have gone full circle here with the cult-like following.
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I'm not sure about any of them changing tack, Wolfie. However, I'd say by the time the next hype cycle comes round, Nouriel will have retired and the Duke will have flipped to full merkle tree mode.:D
 
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WolfeTone said:
What will happen when one of them changes tack and says bitcoin has value?
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Wolfie my faith is stronger than the behaviour of any one prophet. All the same if Roubini were to endorse btc it would be akin to the pope advertising durex, it would be hard to take.
 
Charting website cryptowat.ch has a neat new feature where you can paste a link to a tweet on the chart and it anchors it at the time it was tweeted:

c0t115dv38eq9j2kua20-bitfinex-btcusd.png

Those lucky retail suckers eh!

Pity this can't be done with AAM posts.
 
My bitcoin investment, which i made immediately sfter Tesla's investment, is currently worth less than what I invested. How does this make sense? Please discuss.
 
jim said:
My bitcoin investment, which i made immediately sfter Tesla's investment, is currently worth less than what I invested. How does this make sense? Please discuss.
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Because the price people are willing to pay is less than the price you paid for it?
 
Lisboa said:
Energy consumption was discussed here two weeks ago but some may find this new BBC article interesting; https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-56215787
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The energy use has been a concern of mine, but less so now. For all the talk of bitcoin using the same energy as Denmark or Argentina, I never hear calls from anyone to shutdown Denmark or Argentina :p

Seriously though, we are in an era where there is a move towards converting to clean, renewable energy sources. Bitcoin is in the same boat as everyone. The earth is abundant with clean renewables, it is just a matter of investing in the technologies to harness all that clean energy.
Bitcoin miners have an in-built incentive to reduce their costs. If clean, renewable sources are economically cheaper than fossil fuel sources, then that is where they will go.
 
Makes absolute sense, now i feel a tad sheepish.
Hurray to Bitcoin.

But wait..hang on...

If i bought immediately after tesla did does that mean that currently the price people are willing to pay is just about less than what Tesla paid and therefore their investment is currently worth less than their orig investment of 1.5bn?! So they must be distraught.
 
jim said:
But wait..hang on...

If i bought immediately after tesla did does that mean that currently the price people are willing to pay is just about less than what Tesla paid and therefore their investment is currently worth less than their orig investment of 1.5bn?! So they must be distraught.
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I'm sure Elon thanks you for your empathy but I don't think you need to worry about the Tesla corporation! :-D
Tesla's purchase averaged out at $34,200/btc.
I think it's more of a case of focusing on what makes sense to you based on your own assessment and your own circumstances. There are also other entities entering the market. Here's a recent example. It's diversified alternatives fund won't be able to gain exposure to btc until April 26 at the earliest.
 
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I dont care a darn for Tesla.

My point is simply - Tesla's 1.5b investment must, at the moment, be breaking even at best? Wasnt it up 1bn at 1 stage.
 
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