Bitcoin in a hyperbolic bubble

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My quip about the first trillion was indeed a quip but not meant to be mean or troll you. In fact it was also rooted in truth, I think the most likely outcome now is that bitcoin is closer to 2 trillion market cap than 1 before this cycle peaks.

And as ever, my money is where my mouth is. As I said in response to that Roubini guy making a big deal out of the correction from 20k to 17k in November: https://askaboutmoney.com/threads/t...ing-in-the-future.206598/page-19#post-1693875

After 20k, the next target was 50k, after 50k the next is 100k.
 
@dukey: When you refer to wastage, you immediately deprive yourself from understanding the contribution that bitcoin mining makes. Anyone who doesn't recognise from the outset that it serves the purpose of securing the network will never get it but so be it.

Other than that, those quotes from Ford and Hayek are priceless - they confirm that a solution like bitcoin has long been needed.

On 'likes', I have no idea what you're referring to.
 
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As per an interview on CNBC earlier, Blackrock (the World's largest asset manager with $7 trillion AUM) has confirmed that it has started to dabble in bitcoin.
Meanwhile, Michael Saylor of MicroStrategy confirmed that the company is seeking to borrow another $900 million with a view to investing it in bitcoin.
 
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To lighten the mood, a trip down memory lane for some. For others, skip to 7 mins 15 secs to get the jist of the story.

As it happens, the Bagpuss childrens show was having much the same debate as we are all having back in 1977, concerning a Chocolate Goldgrain biscuit.

Depending on your perspective, the Millhouse is either a bitcoin mining operation or a Central Bank.
Either way, I'm reserving the part of the Woodpecker Professor for @Duke of Marmalade :)
 
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Bitcoin has now reached a $1 trillion market capitalisation.

“There is nothing more powerful than an idea whose time has come" - Victor Hugo.
 
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Well at these prices I had to do some reflection.

I am not talking about life-changing amounts here but my bitcoin holding has become valuable, way beyond what I thought it could at this point. The psychology at play in this market is something I have never experienced before. But an instinct I have is to go against the grain. Instead of FOMO, I'm now in the FOLO camp.
So I cashed in a portion of my BTC today to cover my outlay and taking an equal sum profit as a feel good factor.

The nice thing is I'm now riding the bitcoin wave for free. The sad thing is, FOMO has emerged once more. :confused:
 
I'm no bitcoin expert and have been wrong on how this keeps coming back from the dead when the bubble appears to have burst like in 2018, this is fairly unique as the huge sell offs in 2018 and early 2020 usually kill the bubble completely.
One thing I've noticed though is that bitcoin is strongly correlated with the speculative tech boom, when tech stocks get whacked so does bitcoin. This would be powerful evidence that digital gold it definitely isn't as it's price should be moving opposite to speculative technology stocks.
 
joe sod said:
One thing I've noticed though is that bitcoin is strongly correlated with the speculative tech boom, when tech stocks get whacked so does bitcoin. This would be powerful evidence that digital gold it definitely isn't as it's price should be moving opposite to speculative technology stocks.
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Check out Lyn Alden's piece from last October on bitcoin correlations. Everything is being affected by the rampant money printing. That money has to end up somewhere. Over the course of it's history, bitcoin has been largely uncorrelated with other asset classes. Whilst it has shown periods of correlation with either equities generally or tech stocks more specifically/recently, so too has gold.
Gold followed equities down in the early stages of the 2008 financial crisis (taking a 30% hit). It did the same last March. Here's an analysis from last September showing increasing correlation between gold miners and tech stocks more recently.

Bitcoin has been likened to gold because of its properties as a store of value. However, it's a (relatively) young, immature asset, formative in that role. I believe that at some stage that likeness will be dropped and bitcoin will be understood to have its own unique qualities as a store of value going forward. It offers many advantages over gold. It's transparently finite - and the most finite financial asset there's ever been. It goes beyond gold in its abilities to act as a base settlement layer. It can be transacted globally/digitally in real time - irrespective of borders. It's censorship resistant and with proper storage, it's unconfiscatable. On the other hand, gold has been largely centralised due to storage difficulties - which has led to the market being highly manipulated.

As for the sell off over the past few days, I would say that correlation is coincidental as much as anything else. Bitcoin had risen sharply and this pullback is healthy and needed. It clears out the more speculative leveraged traders. In the aftermath of that short term clear-out, the asset is above $50,000 right now.
 
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tecate said:
Check out Lyn Alden's piece from last October on bitcoin correlations. Everything is being affected by the rampant money printing. That money has to end up somewhere. Over the course of it's history, bitcoin has been largely uncorrelated with other asset classes. Whilst it has shown periods of correlation with either equities generally or tech stocks more specifically/recently, so too has gold.
Gold followed equities down in the early stages of the 2008 financial crisis (taking a 30% hit). It did the same last March. Here's an analysis from last September showing increasing correlation between gold miners and tech stocks more recently.
Click to expand...

You have said BTC is uncorrelated with other asset classes and then provided examples of it being correlated in the same paragraph!
 
tecate said:
Over the course of it's history, bitcoin has been largely uncorrelated with other asset classes. Whilst it has shown periods of correlation with either equities generally or tech stocks more specifically/recently, so too has gold.
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I really don't understand what point this is meant to make, you have undermined your own argument. You are basically saying it is uncorrelated but sometimes it is correlated.

Elon Musk trolled BTC, it is no surprise that after he announced the price was too high of BTC and ETH that the price then tumbled. Crypto Twitter is a massive cause of volatility in the market.
 
One thing that these discussions have shown is that if someone is looking for 'argument' they will find it. There is no such argument to be found - just statement and consideration of fact.

Gold and gold miners have been found in the past to be correlated with equities and tech stocks during specific periods. Bitcoin has also been found to have been correlated with A. gold , B. equities and C. tech stocks during specific periods yet when we zoom out and view its 12 years as a whole, it has been largely uncorrelated. Of course, all of this is being discussed with the consideration that bitcoin is developmental in its role as a store of value, as digital gold and as a completely distinct asset in its own right.
 
WolfeTone said:
Well at these prices I had to do some reflection.

I am not talking about life-changing amounts here but my bitcoin holding has become valuable, way beyond what I thought it could at this point. The psychology at play in this market is something I have never experienced before. But an instinct I have is to go against the grain. Instead of FOMO, I'm now in the FOLO camp.
So I cashed in a portion of my BTC today to cover my outlay and taking an equal sum profit as a feel good factor.

The nice thing is I'm now riding the bitcoin wave for free. The sad thing is, FOMO has emerged once more. :confused:
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Wolfie, judging by your post, you prob cashed out just before btc went south sunday eve/monday morning. Fair dinkum.
 
"Like flies to wanton boys we are to the gods.......they kill us for their sport."
Elon tweets and bitcoin reacts plus or minus. Remember He tweeted about taking Tesla private and then it entered into the S and P 500. So, by proxy, we're all along for the bitcoin ride....and the Tesla ride.
As far as I can see Tesla's profit has come from trading carbon credits to the major auto companies. Tesla may become like GE and have several strings to its bow.....grow to a giant and, perhaps eventually, end up at €12 and change per share....or 1BTC
I wish Wolfie all the best...but there's no such thing as playing with the bookies money. It is/was your money. My advice is take it. After midnight ,most parties are in decline and have a high risk of messiness.
 
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Dublinbay12 said:
I really don't understand what point this is meant to make,
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I don't know how you can not understand the point, with the exception that if you deliberately drop the words "largely" and "periods of" out of @tecate comment above then you can arrive at wholly different conclusion to point being made.
 
I am waiting for Musk to start pumping it again, give him a few days.

I am still shocked at how some posters here make statements of 'fact' whilst not being factual whatsoever :)
 
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