Bitcoin in a hyperbolic bubble

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Your playing games you know thats a total PR stunt yet your trying to pass it off like its really a thing happening in El Salvador at scale in a couple of places there........at best you've been taken in my friend by classic PR nonsense..at worst your misrepresenting it to defend your position.......I really hope you travel there and see it for yourself presuming you've swallowed it..........Strike is just another run of the mill remittance business with I'm sure some ripple crypto settlement piece trying to get a piece of the action in a lucrative remittance corridor in this case USA > El Salvdor.........and you've bought their propaganda hook line and sinker......and lets be clear Strike in its current form is just a remittance app.....not 6.5m people paying for a loaf of bread in a shop with Strike point of sale terminals setup like your trying to represent it as.

Your Breez app is also vaporware and not launched - not available in either app stores........crappy beta testing junk......and no business listed on their website where Breez is used as actually used as a point of sale : https://play.google.com/apps/testing/com.breez.client https://testflight.apple.com/join/wPju2Du7


On your small payments happening in El Salvdor claim.......and your reference to " a whole host of vendors" using BTC to sell 20c bread and newspapers is really just some bitcoin 'doner' throwing shackles to poor people with Strike PR layered on top of it - a stunt.......the Bitcoin millionaire donor behind the stunt trying to will some utopian vision of BTC into life (while hoping it will drive his holdings up I'm sure) & Strike trying to get some PR for a remittance app their launching on the back of it..........be honest what your talking about is really that lovely PR stunt bullshit called Bitcoin beach........which you were very careful not to mention cause it sounds so bullshitty.................where bitcoin dreams come true..........just on a website & photos though ..........https://www.bitcoinbeach.com/#press..........from their own website which I'm sure is exaggerating even these numbers.......they have wait for it, wait for it...................15 businesses participating .........guess the donor wasn't that generous a few thousands dollars would cover this circular nonsense and few crypto student volunteers..........look at the site for christ sakes @tecate with critical eyes a few pictures of some hastily printed BTC banners on the side of vans and an old woman being shown a smartphone, a few t-shirts. Classic vaporware, click bait crap.

Its frankly disgusting and using local poor people as props in a promotional campaign for BTC and Strike to get free media coverage. I know propaganda BS when I see it and you seem like a smart fella this is PR bullshit perpetrated on poor people and your spreading it around. Honestly @tecate you need to get a little streetwise and spot the game being played here.

Look at the website for two seconds and think critically about what's going on here really:





BitcoinBeach.com - The First Bitcoin Circular Economy

www.bitcoinbeach.com

..............................Two press releases/media articles/updates on that website......TWO!!!!!!!!!.........both dated from Jan 2020........then nothing, no updates, no press, no progress.......silence........and I can assure you COVID didnt stop the wheels turning in this village so dont blame that.................in the PR biz its called a smash and grab.......stage the narrative, print the press release, get the clicks, share on twitter.....nobody follows up........bitcoin probably went up 1% on this nonsense................15 businesses participating it says ...........one of the articles talks about 50 student 'users'.....given a few free $'s to show up for a class.................its nonsense @tecate and the website reeks of nonsense.........I really hope you go there and see for yourself all thats gonna be left is a few dirty BTC banners lying around the town...and people paying in their local currency or dollars......you strike me @tecate as little young and naive in this space. Not every press release is reality.......especially in crypto.

For completeness I did a google news search for this year on bitcoin beach......and nothing......just re-cycling the initial launch press release nonsense and its used over and over again by Strike to publizce their remittance app. Shameless.
 
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@dukey : Way to go in writing a 250 word post that says absolutely nothing. I've mentioned it before, a career in standup awaits - albeit that it will be a hard road. Until you work on your material a bit more, you'll be dodging rotten apples and tomatoes for a few years.

letitroll said:
Your playing games you know thats a total PR stunt yet your trying to pass it off like its really a thing happening in El Salvador at scale in a couple of places there.
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That's a bare faced lie. In no way did I mention it was being used at scale. And if you want to try and misrepresent that once more, then I'll have to insist on you quoting where I stated it was being used 'at scale'. We have more misrepresentation from you with the 'couple of places' - I clearly mentioned one location by name.
The point is that you challenged the technical ability to transact bitcoin in seconds. It's obvious that you were not even aware of that ability up until I pointed it out to you - just as a couple of days ago, you weren't aware that bitcoin currently has its own inflation rate of 1.76%.

letitroll said:
at best you've been taken in my friend by classic PR nonsense..at worst your misrepresenting it to defend your position..
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I'm not in any way concerned about 'defending my position' - but given that you've betrayed a lack of understanding of what's at play here, maybe you might want to consider hitting the books. I already cited the view of Alex Gladstein from the Human Rights Foundation on this milestone. Here's the view of Avik Roy - President of the Foundation for Research on Equal Opportunity:

"This is a major development in the history of monetary policy".

letitroll said:
I really hope you travel there and see it for yourself presuming you've swallowed it..
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I've had friends who've traveled there and I certainly hope to find the time to get down there towards the end of the year. The work that Mike Petersen is doing there is important and is to be commended.

letitroll said:
Strike is just another run of the mill remittance business with I'm sure some ripple crypto settlement piece trying to get a piece of the action in a lucrative remittance corridor in this case USA > El Salvdor..
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So not satisfied with being found to have your facts ass-ways, you also need to lie to support your opposition to decentralised crypto also? Provide a link to where Strike are using Ripple, please? Strike are using Lightning Network - the layer 2 solution that you claimed a couple of posts ago was just a whitepaper.

letitroll said:
.and you've bought their propaganda hook line and sinker.
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What propaganda? That rather than use Western Union at 10%, Salvadorans will be able to use his service for a couple of % instead? That propaganda? The propaganda that demonstrates that 70% of Salvadorans are locked out of the banking system? If that's what you claim to be propaganda, then provide proof please.

letitroll said:
and lets be clear Strike in its current form is just a remittance app.....not 6.5m people paying for a loaf of bread in a shop with Strike point of sale terminals setup like your trying to represent it as.
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And you're contriving to conflate two separate things. Yes, Strike is a Lightning Network payment app - you know, the lightning network that you said was just a whitepaper!? The Bitcoin Beach project is a community led project that is promoting everyday use of bitcoin as a means of exchange. In a country where the banking system that you marvel about has left 70% of the population unbanked, there is no need for a point of sale terminal. All anyone from a street vendor and upwards needs is a smartphone and a lightning network wallet app.
As regards 6.5 million people using that facility today, you know perfectly well I never made any such claim. You said that it was technically impossible and I specifically referred to El Zonte - to demonstrate that your claim was wayward. I never referred to scale in any way shape or form. However, I will say that this is a milestone towards greater uptake. If you can't see that, then I can't help you.


Breez app is launched and available via the Google play store. I know because I use it regularly. It - along with Phoenix App - are in beta on IOS. So what? How do you think development works exactly?

Now getting to the rest of your rant - I'm not going to go through it line by line as there's no substance to it. In essence, you're not impressed with the Bitcoin Beach project because its not on a grand enough scale for you. Let me be very clear in my thoughts on that - I don't give a fiddlers. If you don't understand what a community initiative involves, that's your problem. I can't help you with it - you'll have to deal with it yourself.

All we've seen from you over the last 24 hours is repeated use of the words 'shameless', 'embarrassing' and 'disgusting'. You know what's shameless/embarrassing/disgusting @letitroll? - that you can't even acknowledge that your beloved banking system is rotten to the core and is central to social exclusion in El Salvador and far beyond. You can't even be open minded enough to acknowledge that rather than the poorest of people paying 10% for remittances, it would be a force for the good if they had the opportunity to pay 1 or 2%.
The inability to be objective enough to recognise that such a modest community-led project in a remote coastal town has been influencial enough to lead to a scenario where bitcoin is likely to be recognised as legal tender for the first time - and the implications that has far beyond the borders of El Salvador. That's what's shameless/disgusting/embarrassing.
 
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Ouch! That withering sarcasm hurt. A consolation is that I got a 50 word response to "absolutely nothing".
tecate said:
...you weren't aware that bitcoin currently has its own inflation rate of 1.76%.
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By that definition I reckon bitcoin inflation over the last month has been running at over 4,000% p.a. Maybe El Salvadorians are used to that level of inflation. I suppose it depends on your definition of "currently". I chose a month, I presume you chose some other period to suit your narrative. You surely weren't referring to the change in supply alone. I presumed you were aware of the first law of economics, that price is a function of supply AND demand.

On a separate point @letitroll posted a truly disgusting and revealing video clip from the Miami Bitcoin pilgrimage. I see in that a complete endorsement of my description of "cult".
"We will not sell" avows the evangelist as if selling bitcoin is sacrilege
"Flip Elon" he screams with venom, though I may have the first word wrong. Their equivalent of Satan, though maybe that is reserved for Roubini
 
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Duke of Marmalade said:
Ouch! That withering sarcasm hurt. A consolation is that I got a 50 word response to "absolutely nothing".
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Measured and appropriate, your dukeness. Watch out! There's a maggoty tomato winging its way towards you.

See above - you really need to start working on some new material. This sort of stuff isn't going to cut it (particularly as the World moves on in spite of your objections).
 
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@tecate I suppose if you can't back up your claim that bitcoin inflation is currently running at 1.76% you may as well toss a rotten tomato. On the other hand the manly thing to do would be to admit the mistake.
 
Duke of Marmalade said:
@tecate I suppose if you can't back up your claim that bitcoin inflation is currently running at 1.76% you may as well toss a rotten tomato. On the other hand the manly thing to do would be to admit the mistake.
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You're trying to conflate two separate items to confuse matters, your Dukeness. The programmatic nature of bitcoin means that its inbuilt monetary policy currently establishes a pre-determined inflation rate of 1.76% through coin issuance. You want to conflate this with price action and the price discovery process that is ongoing as we progress through the adoption curve when compared with fiat currency. If we don't look to convert to your fiat monopoly money, then 1 btc = 1 btc today - with an inflation rate of 1.76%.

You're welcome.
 
Breez remittance app - using lightning, oracle database, bla bla whatever it says its using.........its a remittance app......we've been talkng about an at scale national payments system that supports 1000's of transactions a second such that it could replace cash/mastercard/visa.......and you use a start up remittance app as an example of how crytpo is ready. Please admit one thing for me, there is no deployable solution right now off the shelf in crytpo world ready to go tomorrow (that isnt vaporware) to support the daily transaction needs of 6.5m people & 1000's of payments a second?? Thats my point & if you cant admit that well then. Your in cloud cuckoo land.

@tecate the main thing I love about your post. Which give me hope that your not a complete cultist......is that you completely side stepped the substance of my 250 word post which was really Bitcoin Beach - i.e. BS Beach........and your smart and dug around that website/press section and googled the hell out of it I'm sure looking for substance & counter factuals to show its 'going great' and adoption is increasing............but there isnt any updates. I think your smart enough to have had enough doubt planted in your mind that I'm right on this one.

Its a PR stunt. Community led!!?!?! how? where you see that, cuase it said it on the site? - its led by some millionaire bitcoin fanatic who wanted to print a press release and give the Miami cult something to talk about. The fact you came back with nothing to dispute my supposition except some vague reference to your friend having been there only proves its nonsense.

Bitcoin beach is a PR stunt..........an alice (tecate) in wonderland website creation.........I showed you what was behind the curtain...... nothing......two puff piece advertorials in Jan 2020 and thats it..........you've been hoodwinked if you think there's a village in El Salodvor where people are running around right now paying for haircuts/groceries in bitcoin and loving it
 
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Dont use the word inflation, please - call it bitcoins circulating supply increases 1.76%......its more precise.......

Inflation, as a term, is fundamentally a loss of purchasing power given a fixed unit monetary instrument expressed in goods & services prices denominated in that instrument

@Duke of Marmalade point is valid........bitcoins annual inflation/deflation rate........correctly defined........is insane...........back to my Big Macs example.......in April 1 BTC could buy 12,000 Big Macs on Grafton street.....today it can only buy 6,000..........using this the c.3 month inflation rate for Bitcoin is about 50% i.e. its change in purchasing power........annualized as quarterly dollar inflation rates are its about 200% inflation rate.........granted as BTC's price was rising in late 2020 into early 2021.........BTC denominated transaction were defalting as its price rose & its purchasing power increased.........point me to the last time the US dollar's or Euro's inflation rate hit 50% in quarter....you cant......it never has
 
tecate said:
The programmatic nature of bitcoin means that its inbuilt monetary policy currently establishes a pre-determined inflation rate of 1.76% through coin issuance.
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Sorry, but that is BS, to use @letitroll's technical term. Inflation is a price phenomenon - it is a function of supply AND demand. UK M2 money supply has increased 6 fold over the last 25 years, yet inflation over the same period has only been 50%.
The demand for bitcoin is almost entirely speculative and that is completely dwarfing any supply stability in terms of its price level. How that is going to serve the people of El Salvador is a mystery to me.
 
letitroll said:
Breez remittance app - using lightning, oracle database, bla bla whatever it says its using.........its a remittance app.....
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Do you want to have an intelligent discussion or do you just want to rant and vent? As was pointed out to you, you are conflating a number of things. Breez and Phoenix are lightning network wallets that can be downloaded and used by anyone to transact bitcoin. Lightning Network is a secondary bitcoin payments layer just like visa is a payments layer that runs on top of the conventional system.
Strike is a lightning network-based payments platform at an embryonic startup stage which concerns itself largely with remittances and cross border payments.

letitroll said:
we've been talkng about an at scale national payments system that supports 1000's of transactions a second such that it could replace cash/mastercard/visa.......
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Correction. You've unsuccessfully hopped from one objection to the next and that brought you to a totally uninformed and outdated point of attack where you were'nt even aware of the existence of the lightning network payments layer. Secondly, over the course of 4 years of discussion here I have never seen anyone talk in terms of replacing cash/mastercard/visa. I have seen consideration of decentralised cryto-based alternatives being provided as a choice for ordinary people.

letitroll said:
and you use a start up remittance app as an example of how crytpo is ready.
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Correction. You said that today, it would take 25 minutes to pay for a loaf of bread and I corrected you on your lack of knowledge on the subject. A loaf of bread can be bought with bitcoin over the lightning network with the transaction completing somewhere between a timeframe of milliseconds and 60 seconds. That's what I said. You swore blind that its not possible when it is.
Remittances are a completely separate item. As Mallers' startup shows us, those too can be facilitated over the bitcoin-based lightning network payment layer.
With regard to throughput, visa averages around 25,000 transactions/second. It's technical limitations see it top out at 50,000 transactions/second. My understanding is that lightning network is capable of infinitely greater throughput than that. However, as I've always stated with the development of this whole sector, work is ongoing to build out the technology, its eco-system, UX, education, regulation - the list goes on. Notwithstanding that, lighting network is at a point where it can and should be used at scale. What you're trying to suggest is that nobody should possibly consider it until its limits have been fully tested. Well, there's only one way for that to happen. What you're trying to suggest is akin to saying in 1990, nobody should dare offer anyone dial-up internet - and these tech guys shouldn't offer it to you. Let them come back to you when they have gigabit fibre. That's what you're saying - and in no way do I agree. Lightning development has been slow - I believe that there will still be some technical challenges to be overcome as it is fully deployed but none which would stop me from using it today. And as I mentioned to you, I have been using it.

Now if your opinion on the back of that is that i'm in 'cloud cuckoo land', know that my view is that what is as clear as night and day with your approach to this subject is that you're working backwards from your dismissal of this innovation to find whatever you can to validate your argument. And we can go round the houses all you want if that's what you want to spend time on - but I suggest we park it up right there.

The flagrant ignorance on display is breathtaking. I addressed your point - and I'll do so again for clarity. Your point is that the Bitcoin Beach project is not significant in terms of scale. My point is that I never claimed any such use at scale. However, it is an active demonstration of how bitcoin can be used on a day to day basis going forward.
As regards your claims that I've 'googled the hell out of it', I think you're talking about yourself seeing as you weren't aware of it from the get go. I don't need to 'google the hell out of it' - as I've been aware of the project since its early stages. I've talked to people who have given me first hand accounts of what the project is about and what's going on there.
And yet whilst that project is embryonic, without it - there would not have been this proposal that the El Salvadoran government is now putting forward. That showcase - presumably together with what Mallers claimed his Lightning-Network based platform can bring in terms of value add as it relates to remittances - led to said proposal. Other than that, it's a credible demonstration of how ordinary people can be empowered to send/receive currency when the banking system that you say is glorious has failed them.

letitroll said:
Its a PR stunt. Community led!!?!?! how? where you see that, cuase it said it on the site? - its led by some millionaire bitcoin fanatic who wanted to print a press release and give the Miami cult something to talk about.
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It looks like you're going to continue to claim that - fine. I disagree - and going on the line you're taking (unless you have some new information), we won't be agreeing on this topic. Mike Petersen had no notion of some future conference in Miami a few years ago when he started this project. It's completely moronic to suggest such a thing. I honestly don't see ANY financial upside for him - but if you're aware of one, then please let us know.
And one other thing - on the one hand you claim that i'm furiously searching the internet re. the project and on the other its wrong because I've had friends who have given me first hand accounts with regard to the project. Are you reading your own posts - because I'd suggest you might want to review your cause for complaint!!!

letitroll said:
you've been hoodwinked if you think there's a village right now in El Salodvor where people are running around right now paying for haircuts/groceries
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Ok, so when I arrive there in November inshallah, are you saying that I won't be able to pay for anything with bitcoin? I'm scared to ask but I'll push through the fear with a follow up question. If the answer to the former is that I won't be able to buy anything with BTC, have you've based that on information that you..
A. got first hand from those with knowledge of the project
OR
B. googled the hell out of it
OR
C. received that enlightenment through a vision or some such

Apparently the first two are off limits - but maybe you have news on the last one.


Yes, we know - a 'stunt' - the word appears on this page 10 times now but feel free to tell us again and I guess I'll come back and clarify that I disagree. Apparently you know this through one of the means outlined above. And yet, despite the project going hand in glove with the ongoing development of the lighting network, a secondary effect has been this proposal from the President to make bitcoin legal tender for the first time. Mike Petersen must be feeling awfully foolish round about now what with the effects that will have inside of and outside of the borders of El Salvador.
 
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letitroll said:
Dont use the word inflation, please - call it bitcoins circulating supply increases 1.76%......its more precise.......
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You asked politely so I'll have the good grace to decline your invitation politely.
@dukey . I was talking about inflation as it pertains to monetary policy. Bitcoin has one - it's programmed in to it - and coin issuance plays a role in that. I'm not having you confuse matters by not making the distinction. You know perfectly well that Satoshi had no earthly intention of tracking the price of the USD or any fiat currency. Accepting that fact - and bearing in mind it is a fixed supply currency, it stands to reason that if someone looks at its value versus the reigning unit of account of the day, of course it's not going to land onto the market on day one at its final settled price. That price will be determined when it has matured as a digital asset and as a means of exchange and maturity only happens as we progress along the adoption curve. I'm quite happy to acknowledge that price action/volatility is a feature of bitcoin and is likely to be for some years to come - but I'm not entertaining this conflation that you're going on with.
 
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@tecate Inflation, conflation. I suggest you bone up on your flations. The first commandment of the cult seems to be Never, Never, ever, admit that you are wrong. The current inflation of bitcoin is not 1.76%, as you stated, no matter what flation you use.
 
Duke of Marmalade said:
The first commandment of the cult seems to be Never, Never, ever, admit that you are wrong.
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And the wahhabist opposition you put up means that you'll stop at nothing (including bad faith argument) to try and sully something that has never been bad for people - choice.


Duke of Marmalade said:
The current inflation of bitcoin is not 1.76%, as you stated, no matter what flation you use.
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The inflation which is preprogrammed and designed in to the bitcoin protocol is 1.76%. Volatility and price action outside of that is entirely logical for a fixed supply digital asset and currency which is going through the adoption curve. You're going to extreme lengths to prevent that understanding getting out into the ether.
 
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WolfeTone said:
Conveniently for you.

But the definition you cite clearly implies periods of time greater than an arbitrary month.
In general terms, a time frame of 12 months, y-on-y, is a standard.

Perhaps try your calculation on that basis?
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I can bet you as many bitcoins as you like that it won't come out at anywhere near 1.76% which was categorically stated by @tecate to be the current btc inflation rate. Is there no limits to your subjugation to your mentor?
I would be settling the bet in € so we will need to specify the exact date and time for settlement, to avoid disputes.

What did you think of the Miami declaration of faith, as posted by @letitroll?
 
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If you had used terms like "pre-programmed" or "Satoshi intended" then there would be no problem. The inflation rate of BTC is not as pre-intended no more than the inflation rate of fiat is as pre-intended.
This is not nitpicking. If the El Salvadorian folk think they are buying into a 1.76% inflation rate then what about your prediction of a 80% fall in BTC/$?
 
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Duke of Marmalade said:
I can bet you as many bitcoins as you like that it won't come out at anywhere near 1.76%.
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This came up in the context of inflation as monetary policy. with @letitroll feeling aggrieved because he claimed BTC doesn't see another ATH without coming back and accounting for intended fiat inflation. The central bank high priests can't preprogram inflation in the same way as the bitcoin protocol hardwires it in - they have to tinker to try and achieve that.
Duke of Marmalade said:
If you had used terms like "pre-programmed" or "Satoshi intended" then there would be no problem. The inflation rate is not as pre-intended no more than the inflation rate of fiat is as pre-intended
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I have a big problem with you claiming that Satoshi wasn't aware of the price discovery process that would unfold. @letitroll can claim something like that as clearly he's far from up to speed on the topic. However, you've delved into this topic over the course of four years and you know better. Why would he have designed in the halvings and adjustable hash rate otherwise. You can disagree with it - that's fine , but theres no way you can claim that you're not aware of it.


Duke of Marmalade said:
This is not nitpicking. If the El Salvadorian folk think they are buying into a 1.76% inflation rate then what about your prediction of a 80% fall in BTC/$?
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See above.
 
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These posts from tecate and wolfetone have now fully devolved into the ramblings of a religious cult - its own language (inflation thats not inflation), goal posts that are constantly shifting, press releases passed off as feats of human innovation and progress - all cloaked in pseudo science, vaporware, white papers & beta products with some 3rd year economics thrown in…..turds underpinned by a little raisin (distributed ledger technology which has and will have use cases in removing current trusted third parties, settling securities instantly etc.)….all this giving a sheen of legitimacy & techno utopianism about saving poor people from dictators…..it looks and sounds like Scientology with a paddy power account attached.

I’ll stick to commenting on the price of bitcoin with you fellas there’s no point doing anything else - maybe we can all agree on the irrefutable property of numbers….BTC = $64,888 good, BTC at $30,000 not good……., BTC $8,000 really not good…..BTC $100 oh oh spagheitto
 
Duke of Marmalade said:
I can bet you as many bitcoins as you like that it won't come out at anywhere near 1.76% which was categorically stated by @tecate to be the current btc inflation rate.
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You are measuring the inflation (deflation) rate against USD or Euro.
@tecate is measuring it, as I understand it, at the rate of increasing supply.
They are two different measurements so cannot be compared.

To demonstrate, if I measure my € against the CPI as measured by CSO I come up with 1.6% yoy.
If I measure it against Eurostat CPI I get 1.10%
Which is correct?
If I measure it against price of houses its around 5%.

What bitcoins inflation rate is to be measured against needs to be agreed. Then agree a timeframe.
 
letitroll said:
BTC at $30,000 not good……., BTC $8,000 really not good…
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Bitcoin spending 4 straight months above 30k is pretty great progress from my point of view, considering it spent the previous 11 years well below that, or what average price were you expecting in the first half of 2021 last year?
 
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