Bitcoin in a hyperbolic bubble

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@tecate answer me this - if you had to bet.......what 'currency' do you think the hackers asked for on this ransomware attack?

As we've talked about Tecate ad nauseum everybody I know uses cash/digital cash to go about their daily lifes - its an invention/innovation that has allowed commerce & trade to happen.......a WONDERFUL tool for the progress of society.....and sometimes used for ill

I have never seen ANYONE in my day to day life use crypto to pay for anything, get paid in crypto, paid or been asked to pay my rent in crypto.........a USELESS invention (so far) for society at large.......but it is so useful for kidnappers and ransomware merchants. It fails the smell test.

And as I've said before........the regulatory authorities & G7 political leadership agree with me.........not you @tecate
 
letitroll said:
@tecate answer me this - if you had to bet.......what 'currency' do you think the hackers asked for on this ransomware attack?
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I've indulged you quite enough on the rhetorical. You may have cited an article that didn't refer to payment method but without a doubt you checked that elsewhere before scribbling your rhetorical question. Furthermore, you can make a mountain out of a molehill all you want - I'll refer you to the use of cash and electronic fiat in criminality above - and what I've listed in that respect in the previous post only scratches the surface.

letitroll said:
As we've talked about Tecate ad nauseum everybody I know uses cash/digital cash to go about their daily lifes - its an invention/innovation that has allowed commerce & trade to happen.......a WONDERFUL tool for the progress of society.....and sometimes used for ill
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And decentralised cryptocurrency forms part of the evolution of money.


letitroll said:
I have never seen ANYONE in my day to day life use crypto to pay for anything, get paid in crypto, paid or been asked to pay my rent in crypto.........a USELESS invention (so far) for society at large..
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And I'll give you exactly the same answer as when you brought this up the last time. The experience of you and your peer group is not representative of everyone on this planet. When you last brought this up, you were presented with examples of people seeing the benefits of bitcoin use in other parts of the world - none of which you were able to refute. And for the record, I have been paid in crypto and paid for items in crypto. As regards rent, I suggested payment in crypto when the administrators of the place I'm staying in right now asked me to pay a 5% surcharge for visa payment. They're not familiar with crypto - but that's ok. The metrics show that year on year, its network effect continues to grow and that's all that matters to get this to where it needs to be to effect real change.
The last point I'll make is that your buddies probably didn't have any use for the internet circa 1991 - back then there were headlines saying that it was a waste of time, it had no potential and it was just a tool for pedo's and criminals. Of course it had scaling issues (sound familiar?) it was only a shadow of what we have today - now that a whole host of services have been built on top of it.


letitroll said:
the regulatory authorities & G7 political leadership agree with me.........not you @tecate
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I expect regulatory battles to continue over the next few years - and some of it is going to be incredibly aggressive. I've no vested interest in picking one rationale over another as to why any state entity will take a tough stance. Bear that in mind when I tell you that I genuinely don't believe that ransomware is what they're most concerned about when it comes to bitcoin/crypto. You believe otherwise - and that's your opinion.

And they will sway this way and that. India has already banned and unbanned crypto. More recently they banned it again - and then the other day, they released this.

This has more to do with your underlying attitude re. decentralised crypto as it does to genuinely seeking a solution to ransomware. I've asked you on a couple of occasions to consider that Ireland's most mismanaged organisation should be held accountable for this screw up - but all I've heard back from you is crickets. What bug bounty program were the HSE (or any of these entities for that matter) running? What internal discussions were held on the subject? What plans/procedures were implemented to get out in front of any such attack? Has anyone asked them that or our 'press' don't want to cause a fuss for a state body? I'll bet my last bitcoin they were sleeping at the wheel on this.

All three attacks that you've referred to have originated from Russia. What purpose would your G7 bitcoin ban serve when Russia isn't even part of it? Furthermore, I've put it to you that this type of attack will go on regardless of whether bitcoin can be utilised as a payment mechanism. You cited an article previously that explicitly stated that there are other forms of payments being sought. Beyond financial incentive, hackers will do it for the challenge as they've always done. However, in more recent years there has been a war going on by stealth of the cyber variety. As I mentioned, there was some suggestion that one of those groups had ties to the powers that be in Moscow. Someone else here suggested that ransomware would have nothing to do with a nation state attack. Yet right here we have a clear example of precisely that - an attack carried out by the Russians under the guise of ransomware -> LINK.
 
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@tecate @WolfeTone Uncle Joe agreeing with me:

[broken link removed]

Both of you would seem to suggest that crypto is some neutral tool in the on-going story of global crime - it isnt and were seeing the response now
 
letitroll said:
@tecate @WolfeTone Uncle Joe agreeing with me:

[broken link removed]

Both of you would seem to suggest that crypto is some neutral tool in the on-going story of global crime - it isnt and were seeing the response now
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Hold the phones - you told us that there would be an outright ban? You've mentioned a few times that <various statist agencies> 'agree with you'. Given that governments and their various agents are incredibly reluctant to embrace decentralised crypto, how is this news? I'm not sure what that brings to the discussion? State actors are generally on your side of the fence.
I've said it before and I'll say it again - the concern around decentralised crypto for governments/central banks/state agencies surrounds a loss of control. Any expressed concern re. ransomware is secondary to them. That doesn't mean that there won't be commentary. As an example, we had Yellen and convicted fraudster Lagarde trying to tar and feather bitcoin re. illicit use when the data available demonstrates that only 1% of bitcoin transactions serve an illicit purpose.

As regards the Coindesk article you linked to, all that says is that they're looking into it. Of course they're looking into it. There's no mention of a ban, is there? Earlier this week, the Ransomware Task Force released its framework for dealing with Ransomware. They called for more stringent regulation but at no point did they call for a ban on cryptocurrencies. I guess they know what you aren't prepared to accept - i.e. that a ban won't prevent the use of bitcoin as a means of payment.

More regulation is a given - as what this will really boil down to is uncle sam (and other governments) getting their tax money.


As regards your claim that bitcoin isn't a neutral tool, you know perfectly well that is wayward. In your mind, you think that you can claim that cash and electronic fiat can be used for good or bad but when it comes to bitcoin you apply a different standard. Not good enough!

Now if you intend to carry on with this, then clarify what measures the HSE took to ensure no such attack ever happened? What documentation did they release to the irish media demonstrating that they had covered their bases in this instance? Provide even one link to an irish news source that asked them such questions, please - because it's highly likely they were never asked. That's the actual tragedy here - that people are accepting this sort of nonsense.
 
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The past 24 hours confirms @letitroll 's claim - decentralised crypto/Bitcoin has no utility and should be summarily banned immediately.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1400428434443079688

Navalny urges donors to use crypto


In other news, the Russians are ditching the dollar. I guess they're big n bold enough such that they will fare a lot better than Messrs Hussein & Gaddafi when they tried to ditch the petro dollar. Shouldn't be uneventful nonetheless. Maybe we'll have an uptick in cyber attacks..
 
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It is ironic that a system designed to solve the need for 'trusted' third parties in digital payments, now relies on trusted third parties to provide access to market participants.
 
tecate said:
The past 24 hours confirms @letitroll 's claim - decentralised crypto/Bitcoin has no utility and should be summarily banned immediately.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1400428434443079688

Navalny urges donors to use crypto


In other news, the Russians are ditching the dollar. I guess they're big n bold enough such that they will fare a lot better than Messrs Hussein & Gaddafi when they tried to ditch the petro dollar. Shouldn't be uneventful nonetheless. Maybe we'll have an uptick in cyber attacks..
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Trading your lebanon dictator led currency.........for bitcoin.....which now has all the hallmarks of being led by a dictator called Elon Musk who tweets about breaking up with it and it moves $2k as result.....so much for decentralization seems pretty centralized to me Elon Musk, Michael Saylor, Chamath...................new boss, same as the old boss.

I feel bad for people in Lebonan or African dictatorships..........crypto doesn't 'solve' this as you laser beam eyed people seem to think, politcal reforms, popular movements & revolutions do.........this use case is a fig leaf for all cryptos cesspit type activity.........turds mixed with raisins, as Charlie Munger says, are still turds.......crytpo helping people in Lebanon are the raisins.....the rest is turds
 
@letitroll - let us know how you really feel. It's interesting how you'll criticise bitcoin on the basis of Elon's tweets while ignoring the effect of his tweets on certain listings on the traditional market. Meanwhile, you try to liken an example I provide where a central bank prevent people from accessing their own money with the effect of an online influencer? That doesn't stand up. People are free to make their own decisions based on Elon's view if they think that's wise - in the other example, people are being prevented from making a decision with regard to the use of their own money. You can't square those two items as much as you might try.
And as an aside, on-chain analysis has shown that those that both bought and sold relative to the whims of Mr. Musk are newcomers.
As regards Chamath and Saylor, what of them? You're critical of them and the irony is that you bring Munger in, in an attempt to bolster your argument. People tend to hear out those who have proven to be successful - that's in no way exclusive to crypto. If you think that these people control crypto, then you have not proven your point. You can't because it's not true.
On Charlie Munger and Warren Buffett, they're on record as having missed out entirely on the wave of profound tech innovation that emerged from the dot com era. Only very recently have they taken a position in google and facebook, etc. They're incredibly astute people but they're also octagenarians who by their own admission don't understand tech.

So are you calling it then? Bitcoin DOA within 6 months? Is that what you're saying?
Also the G7 ban related to Ransomware, we can expect that within 6 months also?
 
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tecate said:
@letitroll - let us know how you really feel. It's interesting how you'll criticise bitcoin on the basis of Elon's tweets while ignoring the effect of his tweets on certain listings on the traditional market. Meanwhile, you try to liken an example I provide where a central bank prevent people from accessing their own money with the effect of an online influencer? That doesn't stand up. People are free to make their own decisions based on Elon's view if they think that's wise - in the other example, people are being prevented from making a decision with regard to the use of their own money. You can't square those two items as much as you might try.
And as an aside, on-chain analysis has shown that those that both bought and sold relative to the whims of Mr. Musk are newcomers.
As regards Chamath and Saylor, ehwt of them? You're critical of them and the irony is that you bring Munger in an attempt to bolster your argument. People tend to hear out those who have proven to be successful - that's in no way exclusive to crypto. If you think that these people control crypto, then you have not proven your point. You can't because it's not true.
On Charlie Munger and Warren Buffett, they're on record as having missed out entirely on the wave of profound tech innovation that emerged from the dot com era. Only very recently have they taken a position in google and facebook, etc. They're incredibly astute people but they're also octagenarians who by their own admission don't understand tech.

So are you calling it then? Bitcoin DIA within 6 months? Is that what you're saying?
Also the G7 ban related to Ransomware, we can expect that within 6 months also?
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Yep I'm calling it....and have called it......but lets be clear what exactly I'm calling before you put words in my mouth.......................Bitcoin down 80%-90% from its peak 2021 price (& never to return to that level $63k all time high again EVER!) This will happen in the next 12 months (some store of value :) )......this will be chiefly caused by coordinated G7/20 action which will reverse and choke off bitcoin's, heretofore, ignored, slow progressing integration into the traditional financial system......on ramps / off ramps as the crypto world likes to call them will be severely harshly limited/regulated. Negating its usefulness as a vehicle for at best speculation at its worst crime/tax evasion, terriorsim and ransomware.....when these use cases are removed from the BTC market.....its true "value" as a trading sardine will be revealed. The BTC 2021 hangover is gonna be beauty - trust me.

There you go see you in a year @tecate and then in five year intervals after that.....I've set my calendar to come back and visit you & @WolfeTone
 
So just so that I'm clear, from this day forth, it will never see $63k again, is that correct?
 
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tecate said:
So just so that I'm clear, it will never see $63k again, is that correct?
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Yes, exactly right......Bitcoin's April 13th all time high purchasing power will never be hit again........Coinbase's ATH record indicates the following to be super precise $64,899 on April 13th 2021 at 8pm....agreed on that?.....however.....this is a USD denominated pair trade, we need to pair it with something right, this is ultimately a purchasing power / store of wealth bet so it needs to be anchored in reality?Agreed?You've been arguing purchasing power for 4 pages of this thread so presume this isnt a problem?...... BTC has no value in the REAL world I cant pay my taxes with it, my landlord wont quote me next years monthly rent in it. We need a pairing. BTC is quoted in USD so guess thats the easiest and lazy way to do it.

BUT.......USD by design provides a predictable devaluation path (inflation to you and me). I'm sure WolfeTone will come in with a got ya comment.....but the reality is its a function of credit in the economy and expanding money supply/credit against an increasing productive base.....its a feature, not a bug (as Wolfe Tone and gold bug consirpacy theories would have you think)......a feature which has in the last 150 years coincided with the greatest progress in human living standards ever seen..........AND most importantly STABLE inflation is not a problem........people can and do contract on long term basis knowing the 2% inflation rate.........multi decade contracts are structured with expected inflation rates , loans given etc.......wages are adjusted upwards to maintain purchasing power etc.

Perhaps you would prefer an oz of gold as the pairing given the gold bug instincts of the BTC faithful? Maybe we should use the cost of a Big Mac on Grafton street on April 13th denominated in BTCs/satoshis as the pairing? if you care to figure out the BTC - USD - Oz of gold/ Big Mac calculations (& share your workings with me) for close of business on April 13th we could use that?

If using USD we should adjust upwards yearly by the FED's 2% inflation target..........I'll allow you in this 'bet' perhaps to enjoy the call option for free that the FED loses control of inflation for a few years (or USD loses its reserve status and is viewed as dirt in the International exchange rate system and so is devalued against other currencies). But think I might be being too generous in this regard when what were really both talking about is purchasing power.

If were being lazy and pairing this in USD to be precise........the inflation adjusted April 13th 2022 all time high USD price target for Bitcoin is $64,899 x 1.02 = $66,196.98 and so on and so forth each April 13th each year...........but maybe the purest expression of our little side bet is actually how many satoshi's it would have cost to buy a Big Mac on Grafton Street on April 13th....and how those satoshis ability to contract for big macs over time changes?.....the reality right now is you'd need to hand over way more satoshis to get a Big Mac today than you did on April 13th.........will McDonald's sell you half a Big Mac :) ?.....and in the future I bet its an obscene amount of satoshis......and in the future still it might be lots of bitcons required to get a Big Mac.

This is fun - I'll figure it out for us actually.

From Just Eat's site (https://www.just-eat.ie/restaurants-mcdonalds-grafton-street/menu) Grafton Street McDonald's Big Mac is currently 4.50 euro which is $5.36 at April 13th EUR/USD exchange rate (1e = 1.19124USD) from xe.com...........1 BTC @ $64,899 on April 13th would have bought you 12,108 Big Macs on Grafton Street.........today June 4th with BTC @ ~$37K you could ONLY buy 6,903 Big Macs with the same bitcoin.....Zimbabwe-esque if you dont mind me saying so @WolfeTone :)

So our little side bet exactly stated:

(1) ONE bitcoin will never never be able to be exchanged again for 12,108 Big Macs on Grafton Street
(2) Within 12 months from today.........ONE bitcoin will be devalued so much that it will be unable to be exchanged for more than 2,421 big macs on Grafton street........a fall in BTC purchasing power equal to or greater than 80% from its April 13th 2021 big mac purchasing power peak

I think this is fair @tecate and the purest expression of your opinion vs. mine?
 
letitroll said:
then in five year intervals after that.....I've set my calendar to come back and visit you & @WolfeTone
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Why? I got the impression from you that this will be all done and dusted pretty soon? 2021 if I'm not mistaken, or within next 12 months?
 
Duke of Marmalade said:
@letitroll pizza prices are the benchmark of choice for bitcoin
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True! :) Like Pomps bitcoin pizza company that only takes $ for payment

cointelegraph.com

Bitcoin bull launches pizza company that doesn't accept crypto payments

The profits from the first week of Bitcoin Pizza Sales will support the Human Rights Foundation's Bitcoin Development Fund as well as small businesses in ten U.S. cities.
cointelegraph.com cointelegraph.com

Big Macs are the choice of economists measuring purchasing power parity so we'll go with that I think :)
 
letitroll said:
I think this is fair @tecate and the purest expression of your opinion vs. mine?
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You went to a lot of work on the whole big mac thing in that post but it's much easier if we leave it at BTC/USD if it's all the same to you.
Duke of Marmalade said:
@letitroll pizza prices are the benchmark of choice for bitcoin
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It should definitely be the benchmark for your champion 'economist' Francis Coppola in her suggestion that bitcoin is unlimited (with her direct inference that it has no hard cap) as it can be divided into sats. Must be a scene from the loaves and fishes when she shares out a pizza!
WolfeTone said:
Why? I got the impression from you that this will be all done and dusted pretty soon? 2021 if I'm not mistaken, or within next 12 months?
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That confidence is lacking of late. We had the original AAM naysayers declare that it was done for - never to re-emerge circa 2018. The narrative has changed in that there is no longer a timeline applied.
@letitroll has said that he expects quite the hangover. I've already stated that I expect an 80% reset (but from the actual market top this cycle - which I don't believe that we have reached yet. Of course, I could be as far out as a lighthouse - we'll see). Bitcoin has been through these cycles many times already. Eventually, there will be a hangover and the doom and gloom will return - whilst developers and other market participants continue to build quietly. In that bear market, we'll be reminded of the peak figure - just like we were over a number of years with the $20k top, the poor suckers that got caught, etc. None of this will mean that bitcoin is done for - far from it. The story will continue and will be played out on a multi-year basis.
On an all out ban, I have to entertain it as a possibility - but I don't think its a probability on average. Some tough regulation sure - some of it wayward - and a variance between jurisdictions and flip flopping on regulation within jurisdictions. Again, maybe I'll be wrong - we'll have to see.
 
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