"Bitcoin could be fuelling division of society"

[DazedInPontoon]

Im not sure about this. The rate of increase for btc has far outpaced wages and inflation.

Yes, because it would increase at the rate of inflation if demand was increasing at the same rate as new supply - i.e. no net new demand, so only increasing at the rate nominal dollars are losing value. But it's been more than that because demand has increased a lot more than supply, which is not surprising since it was starting from zero.

In any case, if you want to dive into growth models, the power law one proposed six years ago is by far the most interesting, as it factors in diminishing returns: https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/9cqi0k/bitcoin_power_law_over_10_year_period_all_the_way/

From the creator:

"Power laws are very common in complex phenomena. The growth of cities, river systems, networks and so on. The fact that BTC followed a power law for 10 years it means is not a normal financial asset. It is a much more interesting and complex system."

Pretty incredible to me how well it has tracked since then: https://charts.bitbo.io/long-term-power-law/

 

[ArthurMcB]

Yes, because it would increase at the rate of inflation if demand was increasing at the same rate as new supply - i.e. no net new demand, so only increasing at the rate nominal dollars are losing value. But it's been more than that because demand has increased a lot more than supply, which is not surprising since it was starting from zero.

In any case, if you want to dive into growth models, the power law one proposed six years ago is by far the most interesting, as it factors in diminishing returns: https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/9cqi0k/bitcoin_power_law_over_10_year_period_all_the_way/

From the creator:

"Power laws are very common in complex phenomena. The growth of cities, river systems, networks and so on. The fact that BTC followed a power law for 10 years it means is not a normal financial asset. It is a much more interesting and complex system."

Pretty incredible to me how well it has tracked since then: https://charts.bitbo.io/long-term-power-law/

I dont buy it though Dazed. And I really respect your tenacity on this subject and your persistence. But, to be frank, the more someone tries to sell me something the less I want it. I know you're not nessessarilly sellin it but in a way you are.

At same time i dont buy the nagativity towards btc either. There must be a middle ground. But as i said earlier the biggest prob for me is i dont understand btc or easily see its use. So for that reason...

 

[Duke of Marmalade]

I intend as President of the United States to sign an Executive Order on day 1… to transfer approximately 200,000 Bitcoin held by the US Government to the US Treasury where it will be held as a strategic asset. …. On day one as President, I will sign another Executive Order directing the US Treasury to purchase 550 Bitcoin daily until the US has a reserve of at least four million Bitcoin. … our nation holds approximately 19% of global gold reserves; this policy will give us around the same proportion of total Bitcoin. The cascading impact of these actions will eventually move Bitcoin to a valuation of hundreds of trillion of dollars. On day one as President, I will sign also an Executive Order directing the IRS to issue public guidance that all transactions between BTC and the USD are unreportable transactions, and by extension untaxable. … Bitcoin is a technology for freedom, for optimism, for independence, for democracy, for transparency, it is the currency of hope, it is the perfect currency.”

My emphasis. If these nutters (Trump, Musk, Kennedy) win and actually mean what they say, China (bans Bitcoin) is on a fast track to be the World economic leader and and maybe even its system will gain credence from what will surely turn out to be a dramatic failure of US democracy.

 

[Duke of Marmalade]

They predict very different prices developments for Bitcoin depending on who wins the U.S. Presidential election: if Trump wins, Bitcoin could go up to USD 80-90 000 – but if Harris wins the presidential race the price could drop to USD 30-40 000.

 

[Duke of Marmalade]

Below is the essence of the ECB paper. It is taking the wild predictions of the promoters at face value and pointing out what that would mean at the macro level. The essential message is that a massive increase in perceived asset wealth will flow into consumption and since that wealth did not come from any economic production there would need to be central bank measures to control inflation thus inevitably having redistribution effects. It is argued from standard economic theory but you don't have to be an economist to see that if bitcoin achieves these wild predictions we can no longer ignore it as a casino which only affects those at the tables. Note how they now admit that if a price of 60,000 can be achieved with no fundamental basis then why not 1 million/10 million? And they concede that irrationality can exist for a very long time.

A price of one million USD per Bitcoin (as insinuated by Cathy Wood) would mean a market capitalisation of close to USD 20 trillion, while Robert Kennedy refers to a future market capitalisation of “several hundreds of trillions” implying a Bitcoin valuation of at least USD 10 million. To put this in perspective: Total global equity valuation was USD 111 trillion in end 2023. As of August 2024, the total market value of gold was around USD 12.2 trillion. This estimation takes account of gold held in central banks as reserves (one quarter) and by private investors in various forms such as jewellery, coins, and bullion (Gold Council 2024). Against this backdrop, Kennedy’s vision acclaimed at the Nashville Bitcoin Conversion would imply a Bitcoin market cap way beyond equity and gold taken together (the size of the global bond market is estimated around EUR 130 billion according to the International Capital Market Association, but debt does not represent a net value, it rather cancels out between creditors and debtors). While the current market value of a Bitcoin is in the range of USD 50,000-60,000, it could be argued that any price for Bitcoin is equally plausible, including 10 million or more – as none of these prices has any particular economic justification or imputed basis.

 

[Duke of Marmalade]

As a separate post I conclude by pointing out that I was right. This paper is not the "nonsense" which the bitcoin lobby are trying to portray it, using the Trump trick of twisting what his opponents say. Clearly they feel threatened by this report for here we have an argument from their arch enemy that they fear. Namely that the rest of us should not complacently think that this is just a playground for the cult and that society should make sure that the cult's predictions, which could indeed come to pass if unchecked as they have so far, are stopped in their tracks.

 

[Duke of Marmalade]

Bitcoin at ATH as chances of Trump/Musk victory strengthen. Prediction will go to 90k if Trump/Musk win and fall to 30k if not. Cultists should have a bet on the good gal winning as insurance.

 

[jman0war]

The information space I inhabit signals a massive Trump win.

Presidential Election Winner 2024

Polymarket | This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald J. Trump wins the 2024 US Presidential Election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The r...

polymarket.com

 

[Brendan Burgess]

Polymarket doesn't really signal the size of the win.

It is a probabilistic forecast which says that he has a 67% chance of winning compared to Harris's chances at 33%.

Betfair is a bit closer - 65% 35%

Nate Silver has it 55%, 45%

Brendan

 

[Horatio]

It seems like a thought experiment by some academics who needed to publish something. It's relying on too many 'ifs'. The only way it could happen is if there's always someone willing to buy BTC as the price constantly rises...

...or accept it as payment. No?

 

[Horatio]

Has the price of BTC ever constantly risen? Of it were to constantly rise, regardless of the performance of any other investment, how would anyone afford to buy BTC?

You can buy fractions of a Bitcion.

 

[Fortune]

...or accept it as payment. No?

That's still 'buying' BTC.

 

[jman0war]

The information space I inhabit signals a massive Trump win.

Presidential Election Winner 2024

Polymarket | This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald J. Trump wins the 2024 US Presidential Election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The r...

polymarket.com

Delighted that the information space I listen to was 100% correct on this election and had their finger on the pulse.

Bitcoin already hit an all time high.

Nocoiners: it's still not too late join the party.

 

[torblednam]

Just to be clear, do you inhabit this information space, or listen to it?

 

[jman0war]

Just to be clear, do you inhabit this information space, or listen to it?

How are those sour grapes tasting this morning?

 

[ClubMan]

Whatever about fuelling the division of society it's doing a good job of fuelling the division of Askaboutmoney...

 

[torblednam]

How are those sour grapes tasting this morning?

I think you must be mixing me up with someone else...

Go find my post(s) that you think indicate my views on either Trump or Bitcoin, and come back to me

 

[Duke of Marmalade]

Delighted that the information space I listen to was 100% correct on this election and had their finger on the pulse.

Bitcoin already hit an all time high.

Nocoiners: it's still not too late join the party.

This was accepted wisdom for all as the below quote from a ECB expert which I reproduced in post #20 is evidence. As it happens it has gone up 5k which is a return of around 1/6 against potential losses if He had lost. There were much simpler and far better value ways to bet on a Trump win. I'd say there are a lot of folk kicking themselves that they could have made much more by betting a Trump win on Betfair.

Hunt, James (2024): Bernstein predicts a bitcoin price of $80-90k if Trump wins presidential race, or $30-40k if Harris is elected

But why was it obvious to all that a Trump win would be a bitcoin boost? After all when the mining was done substantially in China he was dead against bitcoin. China has since banned bitcoin and we have this bromance between Trump and Musk. I guess Trump hasn't a clue what bitcoin is, probably thinks that it really is mined and we know he is all for miners. Elon has persuaded him that bitcoin would be a great fit with MAGA. Below is what he said at the Libertarian Bitcoin Conference in Nevada in July.

“I will ensure that the future of Crypto and the future of Bitcoin will be made in the USA, not driven overseas; I will support the right to self-custody to the nation’s 50 million crypto-holders, I say this, with your vote; I will keep Elizabeth Warren and her goons away from your Bitcoin, and I will never allow the creation of a central bank digital currency.”
… if I am elected, it will be the policy of my administration, United States of America, to keep 100% of all the bitcoin the U.S. government currently holds or acquires into the future, we'll keep 100… This will serve, in effect, as the core of the strategic national bitcoin stockpile. … … I take steps to transform that vast wealth into a permanent national asset to benefit all Americans. … You are the modern-day Edisons and Wright brothers and Carnegies and Henry Fords, and what you do in your lifetime stands a chance to outlive us all and inspire humanity for generations to come.”

Of course there is no guarantee at all that he meant any of this. Mexican Wall Builder shares sky rocketed in 2016 but have since collapsed.

 

[ArthurMcB]

Bitcoins hardly rocketing to the moon. Tesla on other hand