"Bitcoin could be fuelling division of society"

ArthurMcB said:
Im not sure about this. The rate of increase for btc has far outpaced wages and inflation.
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Yes, because it would increase at the rate of inflation if demand was increasing at the same rate as new supply - i.e. no net new demand, so only increasing at the rate nominal dollars are losing value. But it's been more than that because demand has increased a lot more than supply, which is not surprising since it was starting from zero.

In any case, if you want to dive into growth models, the power law one proposed six years ago is by far the most interesting, as it factors in diminishing returns: https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/9cqi0k/bitcoin_power_law_over_10_year_period_all_the_way/

From the creator:

"Power laws are very common in complex phenomena. The growth of cities, river systems, networks and so on. The fact that BTC followed a power law for 10 years it means is not a normal financial asset. It is a much more interesting and complex system."

Pretty incredible to me how well it has tracked since then: https://charts.bitbo.io/long-term-power-law/
 
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DazedInPontoon said:
Yes, because it would increase at the rate of inflation if demand was increasing at the same rate as new supply - i.e. no net new demand, so only increasing at the rate nominal dollars are losing value. But it's been more than that because demand has increased a lot more than supply, which is not surprising since it was starting from zero.

In any case, if you want to dive into growth models, the power law one proposed six years ago is by far the most interesting, as it factors in diminishing returns: https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/9cqi0k/bitcoin_power_law_over_10_year_period_all_the_way/

From the creator:

"Power laws are very common in complex phenomena. The growth of cities, river systems, networks and so on. The fact that BTC followed a power law for 10 years it means is not a normal financial asset. It is a much more interesting and complex system."

Pretty incredible to me how well it has tracked since then: https://charts.bitbo.io/long-term-power-law/
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I dont buy it though Dazed. And I really respect your tenacity on this subject and your persistence. But, to be frank, the more someone tries to sell me something the less I want it. I know you're not nessessarilly sellin it but in a way you are.

At same time i dont buy the nagativity towards btc either. There must be a middle ground. But as i said earlier the biggest prob for me is i dont understand btc or easily see its use. So for that reason...
 
Kennedy at Bitcoin conference said:
I intend as President of the United States to sign an Executive Order on day 1… to transfer approximately 200,000 Bitcoin held by the US Government to the US Treasury where it will be held as a strategic asset. …. On day one as President, I will sign another Executive Order directing the US Treasury to purchase 550 Bitcoin daily until the US has a reserve of at least four million Bitcoin. … our nation holds approximately 19% of global gold reserves; this policy will give us around the same proportion of total Bitcoin. The cascading impact of these actions will eventually move Bitcoin to a valuation of hundreds of trillion of dollars. On day one as President, I will sign also an Executive Order directing the IRS to issue public guidance that all transactions between BTC and the USD are unreportable transactions, and by extension untaxable. … Bitcoin is a technology for freedom, for optimism, for independence, for democracy, for transparency, it is the currency of hope, it is the perfect currency.”
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My emphasis. If these nutters (Trump, Musk, Kennedy) win and actually mean what they say, China (bans Bitcoin) is on a fast track to be the World economic leader and and maybe even its system will gain credence from what will surely turn out to be a dramatic failure of US democracy.
 
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Hunt 2004 said:
They predict very different prices developments for Bitcoin depending on who wins the U.S. Presidential election: if Trump wins, Bitcoin could go up to USD 80-90 000 – but if Harris wins the presidential race the price could drop to USD 30-40 000.
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Below is the essence of the ECB paper. It is taking the wild predictions of the promoters at face value and pointing out what that would mean at the macro level. The essential message is that a massive increase in perceived asset wealth will flow into consumption and since that wealth did not come from any economic production there would need to be central bank measures to control inflation thus inevitably having redistribution effects. It is argued from standard economic theory but you don't have to be an economist to see that if bitcoin achieves these wild predictions we can no longer ignore it as a casino which only affects those at the tables. Note how they now admit that if a price of 60,000 can be achieved with no fundamental basis then why not 1 million/10 million? And they concede that irrationality can exist for a very long time.
ECB paper said:
A price of one million USD per Bitcoin (as insinuated by Cathy Wood) would mean a market capitalisation of close to USD 20 trillion, while Robert Kennedy refers to a future market capitalisation of “several hundreds of trillions” implying a Bitcoin valuation of at least USD 10 million. To put this in perspective: Total global equity valuation was USD 111 trillion in end 2023. As of August 2024, the total market value of gold was around USD 12.2 trillion. This estimation takes account of gold held in central banks as reserves (one quarter) and by private investors in various forms such as jewellery, coins, and bullion (Gold Council 2024). Against this backdrop, Kennedy’s vision acclaimed at the Nashville Bitcoin Conversion would imply a Bitcoin market cap way beyond equity and gold taken together (the size of the global bond market is estimated around EUR 130 billion according to the International Capital Market Association, but debt does not represent a net value, it rather cancels out between creditors and debtors). While the current market value of a Bitcoin is in the range of USD 50,000-60,000, it could be argued that any price for Bitcoin is equally plausible, including 10 million or more – as none of these prices has any particular economic justification or imputed basis.
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As a separate post I conclude by pointing out that I was right. This paper is not the "nonsense" which the bitcoin lobby are trying to portray it, using the Trump trick of twisting what his opponents say. Clearly they feel threatened by this report for here we have an argument from their arch enemy that they fear. Namely that the rest of us should not complacently think that this is just a playground for the cult and that society should make sure that the cult's predictions, which could indeed come to pass if unchecked as they have so far, are stopped in their tracks.
 
Bitcoin at ATH as chances of Trump/Musk victory strengthen. Prediction will go to 90k if Trump/Musk win and fall to 30k if not. Cultists should have a bet on the good gal winning as insurance.
 
Polymarket doesn't really signal the size of the win.

It is a probabilistic forecast which says that he has a 67% chance of winning compared to Harris's chances at 33%.

Betfair is a bit closer - 65% 35%

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Nate Silver has it 55%, 45%

Brendan
 
Fortune said:
It seems like a thought experiment by some academics who needed to publish something. It's relying on too many 'ifs'. The only way it could happen is if there's always someone willing to buy BTC as the price constantly rises...
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...or accept it as payment. No?
 
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